On December 28, 2022, the game industry waited for good news: the State Press and Publication Administration announced the last batch of game approval information in 2022, with a total of 84 domestic games and 44 imported games obtaining version numbers.
From the perspective of the number of domestic editions, December is the month with the largest number of editions issued in 2022. The issuance of import numbers is even more valuable. For gamers in the cold winter, this is a warm gift.
The emphasis on edition numbers reflects a focus on the industry. In fact, the issuance of version numbers is a concrete display of industry policies. In this article, we try to analyze and estimate the relevant content of the industry policy trend in 2023 based on public information. Of course, predicting the future is quite risky, so we will also outline our analysis methods and judgment principles.
Edition number
The December edition was released later than usual. Since the resumption of distribution in April 2022, most of the time points of each release have been in the early part of the month. However, due to the epidemic and other factors, the release time of the version number has been continuously delayed, and the release time of the December version number is at the end of the month.
Considering the arrangement of statutory holidays such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival in January, the time left for the approval of the January edition is very tight. According to the past situation, the issuance of version numbers has been affected by many factors - including but not limited to the epidemic, working from home caused by the epidemic, holidays, etc. In other words, even if the version number is not issued in the first quarter of 2023, the reason for it is likely to be irrelevant to policy. Therefore, we do not have to see it as a negative signal. Of course, if a batch of version numbers can be released within the first quarter, it should definitely be seen as a very positive sign.
The total number of editions issued in 2022 was 512, compared to 1,405 in 2020 and 755 in 2021, and the number is decreasing year by year. However, since the resumption of issuance in April 2022, from 45 in April to 84 in December, excluding the time period affected by the epidemic, the frequency of issuance of version numbers has gradually stabilized, and the number of issuance has also shown an increasing trend overall. Considering that the impact of the epidemic on people's work and life may be further reduced in 2023, all walks of life have begun a full economic recovery, and the 2023 edition is expected to gradually return to a stable issuance state.
The issuance of domestic game version numbers in 2022 is generally increasing
Since April, a total of 7 version approvals have been released in 2022, and the average number of games that passed the review in each batch is rounded down to 73. Based on these numerical analysis, under the premise of no significant impact from the outside world, considering the situation in the first quarter affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, in general, the total number of version numbers issued in 2023 may be basically the same as in 2022, or a slight increase.
It should be noted that compared with domestic game version numbers, the number and frequency of imported game version numbers have shown a downward trend year by year after 2017. From 2018 to 2022, the number of imported games that passed the audit each year was 50, 180, 97, 76 and 44, respectively. At the same time, the frequency of approval results is decreasing: two batches of imported game versions were released in 2021 (February and June), and only one batch (December) was released in 2022. Based on the above situation, the release of imported game version numbers in 2023 is likely to be similar to that in 2022. In addition, in the approval process of imported games, the agency must coordinate with the overseas game development team on the compliance requirements several times, considering the time cost and communication cost, in the current situation, the contract imported game must still be fully prepared.
The trend of the number of imported game version numbers issued in the past 15 years
Since 2018, the distribution of version numbers has attracted the attention of practitioners in the game industry. But in fact, as one of the most intuitive policy indicators, the internal logic of the issuance of version numbers depends on the guiding ideology of the competent authorities. In order to analyze the trend of the industry in 2023 more clearly, we try to review the important policies and indicative events related to the industry in the past, and look for the internal logic and indications.
Regulatory changes and policy trends
At present, the department responsible for issuing edition numbers is the State Press and Publication Administration - this department has undergone many developments and changes in the past 20 years. In order to further promote the reform of the cultural system, the former State Administration of Press and Publication was integrated with the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television in 2013 to form the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television, which is responsible for supervising and managing the content and quality of publications, radio, film and television programs, and conducting copyright management.
In 2018, the responsibilities of the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television were split again, and the original press and publication responsibilities and film management responsibilities were transferred to the management of the Central Propaganda Department. According to the Notice of the State Council on the Establishment of Institutions (2018) issued by the State Council in 2018, the State Press and Publication Administration has put up a sign in the Central Propaganda Department, and the Central Propaganda Department assumes relevant responsibilities. After several changes, the current State Press and Publication Administration has no substantive organization, and the guidance and planning of the game industry is the responsibility of the Central Propaganda Department.
Since 2018, the leaders of the Publishing Bureau of the Central Propaganda Department have spoken on game management many times. In December 2018, the leaders of the Publishing Bureau of the Central Propaganda Department attended the annual conference of the Chinese game industry and delivered a speech, demanding that the game industry better shoulder its cultural mission and fulfill its social responsibilities. In April 2019, at the National Game Management Work Conference, it was proposed that "manageability is the last word, and development is the real ability". In the speeches at the 2019 and 2020 China Game Industry Annual Conferences, requirements such as "do a good job in preventing addiction, strictly control the content gate, and strictly abide by the rules and regulations" have been repeatedly mentioned. It can be seen from these speeches and speeches that the main focus of the Central Propaganda Department on the game industry is supervision and control.
On this basis, the Game Publishing Working Committee of the China Audio-Visual and Digital Publishing Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Game Working Committee"), as a national industry social organization, is a bridge and link between the industry authorities and the Chinese game industry, and provides many guiding opinions on the implementation of management policies and self-discipline within the industry. At the same time, industry norms advocated by the Game Working Committee may also become part of regulatory policies, such as the "Mobile Game Content Specification (2016 Edition)" issued by the Sound and Mathematics Association in 2016, which later became an important standard in the game approval process.
The implementation of the anti-addiction policy is also a typical example: in August 2021, the State Press and Publication Administration issued the Notice on Further Strictly Managing and Effectively Preventing Minors' Addiction to Online Games, which requires strict restrictions on the time spent providing online gaming services to minors. In September of the same year, the Game Working Committee and relevant game enterprises jointly initiated the Convention on Self-Discipline against Addiction in the Online Game Industry under the guidance of the competent national authorities. In addition to clearly requiring various anti-addiction work, the Self-Discipline Convention also includes provisions on implementing real-name authentication, resisting undesirable content, and establishing and improving game operation platforms.
The Game Working Committee took the lead in issuing the Convention on Self-Discipline for Anti-Addiction in the Online Game Industry
After the promulgation of the Self-Discipline Convention, the "strictest anti-addiction" policy was quickly implemented: game companies launched a new anti-addiction system in a timely manner, and at the same time assisted in verifying the accuracy of the real-name authentication identity of the account with the help of facial recognition and other technologies, and conducted a secondary inspection of the suspected minor's account that was online for a long time at night.
It is worth noting that in addition to the anti-addiction policy, other provisions of the Self-Regulatory Convention have also been implemented. For example, Article 4 of the Self-Discipline Convention stipulates that game e-commerce platforms shall not provide account leasing transaction services to minors in any form. In September 2021, a number of mainstream third-party game trading platforms issued statements saying that they had taken strict measures to prohibit underage users from participating in any transactions on the platform. As of January 2022, about 11,000 accounts in Tencent's games triggered facial recognition in the payment process every day, and 72% of them were intercepted.
Therefore, the content mentioned in other articles of the Self-Regulatory Convention may become the focus of follow-up attention of practitioners.
Indicator events worth paying attention to
First, the implementation of the relevant normative provisions of the "Self-Discipline Convention" and "Game Age Tips" of the Game Working Committee.
In addition to the anti-addiction and other policies that have been implemented, there are still some initiatives in the "Self-Discipline Convention" launched by the Game Working Committee that have not yet introduced management rules, such as resisting the culture of "money worship", "delaying beauty" and "girl cannon", and improving the rules and gameplay design that induce players to indulge and guide players to consume, and so on. In 2022, there have been some voices on the Internet that regard elements such as animal ears and tails as "bad guidance" and suggest weakening such designs. In view of the fact that the industry norms and guiding opinions of the Game Working Committee may be translated into actual policy standards, these contents can become an important reference for observing the adjustment of standards and changes in industry policy indicators in 2023.
Second, at large-scale game industry conferences, the level and speech attended by the leaders of the competent departments.
The attendance of relevant leaders of competent authorities in game exhibitions, game industry conferences and their speeches is also an important wind vane for the industry. For a long time, at large-scale and key game-related exhibitions held in China, the highest number of vice-ministerial-level leaders will attend. From 2020 to 2022, due to the epidemic and other reasons, many game exhibitions were delayed or moved online, and relevant leaders were unable to attend.
In February 2023, the 2022 China Game Industry Annual Conference, which was postponed due to the impact of the epidemic, will be held in Guangzhou, and exhibitions such as ChinaJoy will also have a high probability of resuming offline meetings. At that time, game industry practitioners can judge the importance of the competent authorities to the industry as a whole from the leadership level attending the exhibition. As analyzed above, the speeches of leaders at these meetings are not simply official speeches, which often reflect the management ideas of the industry in the next period of time.
Third, whether a new game support plan will be introduced.
The game support program has played an important role in promoting the development of the game industry. In 2004, the General Administration of Press and Publication issued the Notice on the Implementation of the "China National Online Game Publishing Project", which is committed to revitalizing China's national game publishing industry, enhancing the competitiveness of mainland self-developed online games in the game market, and providing policy support for outstanding national online games. The project continued until 2015, and a total of 214 self-developed "ethnic online games" were selected.
In 2016, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television officially launched the "Original Game Publishing Project", aiming to select 150 "original quality games" within four years. In 2017, the works to be selected in the 2016 "China Original Game Publishing Project" were announced, and there were 30 games in the list. In 2018, 29 games were selected in the list of works to be selected in 2017.
We can think of the Game Support Program as a positive attitude. In 2023, if a new game support plan is introduced, it may indicate that the guiding policies of the game industry have changed from regulatory control to support development.
2016 "China Original Game Publishing Project" selected works exhibition
epilogue
Overall, we expect the stable development of relevant policies in the game industry in 2023. Under the premise that the impact of the epidemic on people is expected to gradually decrease and all walks of life begin to fully recover, it is still too early to expect subversive changes in game industry policies in a short period of time, and the direction of version number issuance, standard implementation, exhibition holding, support plans and other directions are gradually on the right track of normalization, which may be indicators worth paying attention to in 2023.
This afternoon, the Game Working Committee issued a notice that the 2022 annual game industry conference will be held from February 12 to 14 this year. We look forward to a great start for the gaming industry in 2023.