Three grand global diplomatic events held by ASEAN countries have recently become a high-profile region on the international stage. Heads of state and delegates from around the world travel between the regions – Cambodia, which holds the ASEAN Presidency and the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh from November 10 to 13; On November 15-16, the G20 Summit was held in Bali, Indonesia; Next, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Meeting will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, on November 18.
A series of major diplomatic events have been held in ASEAN countries one after another, both by chance in time and place, and by necessity due to internal factors. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in order to promote economic recovery in the "post-epidemic era", countries urgently need to find new partners with development potential. In recent years, Southeast Asia, which has bucked the trend of peaceful development and has become a partner for countries to "compete" for "competition", has also become a new stage for geopolitical games.
From the themes of these three summits, it is not difficult to see that "cooperation" is the common keyword. Originally neutral issues, in the context of fierce geopolitical conflicts, inevitably become a tool for accusations and attacks. Nevertheless, ASEAN countries have done their best to avoid falling into conflict. Zhang Tengjun, deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, told China Youth Daily that for "small countries", the most important thing is to maintain a balance between "big countries", and maintaining good relations with all parties is the best survival strategy in line with their national interests.
Refuse to take sides between China and the United States
The U.S.-China relationship was one of the most closely watched bilateral relationships in a series of recent summits in Southeast Asia. At the ASEAN Summit and East Asia Summit held a few days ago, US President Joe Biden once again mentioned the "China threat" and the "Indo-Pacific strategy".
Biden said at the ASEAN summit Nov. 12 that the goal of U.S.-ASEAN cooperation is to create a "free and open, stable and prosperous, solid and secure Indo-Pacific" to address a range of challenges "from the South China Sea to Myanmar." At the November 13 East Asia Summit, Biden revived the Taiwan Strait issue, stating that "freedom of navigation and overflight in the East and South China Seas must be respected and all disputes must be resolved peacefully in accordance with international law."
As the second US president to visit Cambodia after Obama, Biden also showed some real money as a sign of sincerity, saying that the United States will effectively invest resources in Southeast Asia, and introduce specific measures to promote Southeast Asian connectivity and help the region achieve green development and emission reduction goals. Over the past year, the U.S. government has pledged to invest $250 million in ASEAN areas, with an additional $850 million next year — though some analysts say that this money is nothing compared to the tens of billions of dollars that the United States has provided to Ukraine.
In the face of the United States' combination of hard and soft, ASEAN does not buy it. At the opening ceremony of the East Asia Summit, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who holds the rotating chairmanship of the ASEAN summit, called for solidarity among countries, hoping that all countries "will meet global existential challenges in a spirit of solidarity based on open and inclusive multilateralism, pragmatism and mutual respect." Indonesian President Joko Widodo, the host of the G20 summit, said ASEAN should not allow the current geopolitical situation to trigger a new cold war in the region. In the face of increasing tensions between China and the United States, ASEAN must maintain peace, always uphold international law, become an anchor of stability in the global situation, and never act as an agent for any major power.
As early as the beginning of the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" launched by the United States, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made it clear that he would not choose sides between China and the United States, because China is the largest trading partner of almost all Asian economies and "cannot but do business with China." Lee Hsien Loong recently once again expressed his position on Sino-US relations: Sino-US relations are the most important bilateral relations in the world and have a far-reaching impact on regional peace and stability. He called on the United States and China to work with China to manage tensions, build high-level mutual trust and reach a degree of consensus.
"Sino-US relations are not only an issue of concern to both China and the United States, but also an issue of concern to countries in the vast region, especially Southeast Asian countries." Zhang Tengjun told the China Youth Daily reporter that ASEAN leaders continue to emphasize the hope that China and the United States will live in peace, reflecting their clear understanding of the Sino-US issue - whether there is military confrontation or any form of fierce competition between China and the United States, it is not conducive to peace and stability in the region and to the prosperity and development of the Asia-Pacific region.
The day before the opening of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, the heads of China and the US state held a meeting. Subsequently, Biden's wording changed from the previous "four noes and one unintentional" to "five nos and four unintentional", that is, on the basis of not seeking a new cold war, not seeking to change China's system, not seeking to strengthen alliances against China, not supporting "Taiwan independence", and having no intention of conflict and confrontation with China, he added "two Chinas" and "one China, one Taiwan", had no intention of seeking "decoupling" from China, had no intention of obstructing China's economic development, and had no intention of containing China. Zhang Tengjun believes that the Biden administration's statement is also a response to the voice of the international community, because a conflict with China is not only detrimental to the fundamental interests of China and the United States, but also does not meet the general expectations and demands of the international community. However, whether these promises can be fulfilled depends on whether the US side can show true sincerity and keep its word.
Balanced diplomacy is the way for small and medium-sized countries to survive
ASEAN countries refuse to take sides between China and the United States and maintain good relations with other countries. A review of ASEAN's official documents shows that in recent times, ASEAN has issued joint statements with a number of global or regional powers.
ASEAN and China have reached the largest number of joint statements, including the Joint Statement Commemorating the <南海各方行为宣言>20th Anniversary of the Signing of the Signature, the China-ASEAN Joint Statement on Strengthening Common and Sustainable Development, the China-ASEAN Joint Statement on Food Security Cooperation, and so on.
Observers note that last year ASEAN forged a comprehensive strategic partnership with China and Australia, and this year, ASEAN will upgrade its relations with the United States and India to a comprehensive strategic partnership. In addition, on the occasion of the 45th anniversary of the establishment of dialogue relations between ASEAN and Canada, the two sides issued a joint statement pledging to further promote the establishment of the ASEAN-Canada strategic partnership. ASEAN and Australia issued the Joint Statement of the Second ASEAN-Australia Annual Summit on ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook Cooperation, the Joint Statement on the Completion of Substantive Upgrading Negotiations on the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area with New Zealand, and the Joint Media Statement of the Second ASEAN Economic Ministers-UK Meeting with the United Kingdom, etc.
On the issue of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, ASEAN has strongly urged peace and not pulled the shelf. Ahead of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia rejected Western demands and Ukraine to exclude Russia and extended an invitation to Russia. Indonesian President Joko Widodo vowed not to let the G20 summit "become a forum for political struggle." At the same time, ASEAN signed the Southeast Asia Treaty of Amity and Cooperation agreement with Ukraine, and also called on the United States, the European Union, Japan and others to adopt softer language towards Russia so that all member states can sign a joint communiqué at the end of the summit. In his opening remarks at the G20 summit, Jokowi said: "The G20 (summit) must be a catalyst for an inclusive economic recovery. We should not allow the world to fall apart into another cold war. ”
Zhang Tengjun pointed out that in the traditional sense, ASEAN countries are a small single country, even if they speak out on the international stage through group heating, they are still "weak" in the face of economies such as China, the United States, Russia and Europe. For these small and medium-sized countries, pursuing balanced diplomacy and maintaining good relations with major countries is a strategy based on their own survival needs, and the deterioration of relations with either side of China and the United States is not conducive to their own development. "At this level, ASEAN and the United States and others are also considering the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership," he said. However, Zhang Tengjun also stressed that what needs to be vigilant is that the United States may use the comprehensive strategic partnership to blackmail Southeast Asian countries, force them to cooperate with the anti-China agenda of the United States, and tie them to the anti-China chariot. However, "I believe that Southeast Asian countries should have a good idea of this and be able to make a rational choice."
ASEAN's global political and economic status has been enhanced
"The reason why ASEAN has become a regional force that cannot be underestimated is not only the factor of unity and cooperation and common voice of ASEAN countries, but also the factor of relatively good relations with other countries." Zhang Tengjun said that this has enabled ASEAN to navigate the international stage with ease, to maximize its own interests, and thus become a rising star in global politics and economy.
In the "post-pandemic era" of a series of global crises, Southeast Asia has recovered strongly, showing signs of prosperity. According to the World Economic Forum, ASEAN has a population of about 700 million, 61% of whom are under the age of 35. With a combined GDP of $3.2 trillion in 2019, ASEAN became the world's fifth-largest economy. Despite slowing growth at the start of the pandemic in 2020, ASEAN remains a globally attractive investment destination. According to the latest forecasts, the ASEAN region will grow by 5.3% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023, and is expected to become the world's fourth largest economy by 2030.
ASEAN's rapid economic development is due to the great potential of Southeast Asia itself, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the other. Since January 1 this year, RCEP has successively entered into force for China, Cambodia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, Australia and other countries, and China's huge market has further opened its doors to ASEAN. Thanks to factors such as the entry into force of RCEP, in the first quarter of this year, ASEAN surpassed the EU to become China's largest trading partner again.
"RCEP's first year has made good progress, and member countries have shown a high degree of cooperation, reflecting the desire to make the cake bigger together." Zhang Tengjun said.
Zhang Tengjun pointed out that the Asia-Pacific region is currently facing complex challenges. Some countries are trying to create "decoupling" and "broken chains" in the Asia-Pacific region, promote their own leading trade circles, and shape regional trade rules that conform to the interests and so-called values of the United States and the West, so as to seek their own interests and attack competitors, which is completely out of line with the trend of the times. Therefore, the good start of RCEP is equivalent to giving these countries a "resounding slap in the face", "reflecting the desire of most countries in the region to cooperate and win-win on the basis of equal consultation and mutual respect." He said that the political manipulation of certain forces is unlikely to succeed, especially attempts to exclude China from the supply chain industry chain.
Beijing, 16 Nov (Jiefangjun Bao) --
China Youth Daily / China Youth Network reporter Hu Wenli Source: China Youth Daily
Source: China Youth Daily