"Military Martial Second Plane" author: Xia worm can not speak ice
"Between now and Election Day 2024, I'm going to fight like never before to let the Democrats destroy our country." Are you ready? I'm ready anyway! ”
On November 15, local time, 76-year-old former US President Trump made bold words in front of hundreds of supporters and media personnel at Mar-a-Lago Estate, and announced that he would launch a third attack on the presidency and participate in the 2024 US presidential election.
I have to say that Junwu Mushi still admires Trump, after all, not everyone can face their own failure, not to mention that he still lost in front of people all over the world. So then again, who gave Trump the courage to "World War II"?
It also starts with the just-concluded midterm elections in the United States.
The midterm elections in the United States, what to choose?
On November 9, Beijing time, the much-watched US midterm elections were held as scheduled. Midterm elections, as the name suggests, are elections held in the middle of a presidential term. Simply put, the midterm elections are a political activity in which the American people accept the achievements of the president's two years of administration and score them, which is equivalent to the midterm exam of the US president.
Since it is called an election, what is the election? Friends who know a little about the United States should know that the US government has two key organs, one called the Senate and the other called the House of Representatives, and the Senate and House of Representatives together form the US Congress, which is the highest legislative body in the United States.
▲ US Capitol Hill, often mistaken for the White House
The specific composition of the Senate and House of Representatives is the individual members, of which the Senate has 100 seats for a six-year term, and each state elects two members to represent the state, so the 50 states in the United States are 100 seats; The House of Representatives, which has 435 seats, is elected for two-year terms based on the proportion of each state's population, which means that the more populous the state, the more representatives will represent that state. The U.S. Constitution stipulates that Congress will hold elections every two years, one at the same time as the quadrennial presidential election, and the other during the presidential term, which is what we call the "midterm election" today, so the midterm election is to elect the new members of Congress.
▲ Seats in the U.S. Senate
In addition to members of Congress, this year's midterm elections in the United States also involved governors of 36 mainland states and Guam, three regions of the Northern Mariana Islands and American Samoa, among many other positions, but the focus of the election is, of course, members of Congress.
Although it is chosen, but not all of them are chosen, what does this mean? This year, for example, only 35 of the 100 members of the Senate need to be contested, or almost a third of the people who will have to be re-elected; All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election. Data show that in the history of the United States, the ruling party is much more likely to lose seats in the midterm elections than the opposition party, and from 1934 to 2018, the ruling party only successfully defended its seats in both houses in 1934, 1998 and 2002, and the rest were occupied by the opposition.
Therefore, the results of the election are not only directly related to the remainder of the current president's term, but also have a direct impact on the outcome of the new presidential election two years later. This is well understood, if the ruling party has a majority in Congress, then the president's policies are more likely to be passed and implemented; Conversely, if the opposition party has a majority in Congress, the president will face more opposition when exercising power.
▲ U.S. House of Representatives
It is also worth noting that this year's midterm elections are the first elections in the United States after redistributing House seats and dividing districts based on the results of the 2020 Census, which means that all states with additional or reduced seats must redraw their districts before the midterm elections, which also brings new factors of instability to the final outcome of the election.
As I told you earlier, the seats of representatives are determined according to the proportion of the population of each state, so the results of the census will directly affect the seats in each state's House of Representatives. According to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, Texas added two new House seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each added one seat; California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each lost one seat.
▲Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives
This reminds Jun Wu of a plot in the movie "The Great Cause of Founding the People's Republic", Dai Jitao said to Chiang Kai-shek: "There are more than thirty seats in the national government, and if you give up eight, you have to drive away eight, and give the black hat to outsiders. ”
It really wasn't.
How are elections conducted?
Midterm elections include early voting and in-person voting, with a unified in-person election day on November 8, but due to the global pandemic in 2020, voting rules have changed in many states to avoid voter concentration, and voters are now accustomed to voting before Election Day.
According to "Politician", before the in-person vote, many voters voted by mail or drop box, and more than 40 million people across the United States have cast their ballots before the 8th ballot. Election schedules vary slightly from state to state, for example, voting in Pennsylvania opens from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day, while voting in New York State is from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
▲Voters vote in the midterm elections at polling places
Midterm election results are generally announced on the evening of Election Day or the morning after voting ends, but this year's results may be different than in previous years because many states require mail-in ballots to be postmarked no later than Election Day, so it may take some time to count these ballots.
California's election website, for example, shows that counting live voting results will begin at 8 p.m. on November 8, but the deadline for counting mail-in ballots is Nov. 15 at the latest, and it may be some time before the real winner is known.
▲Voters vote in the midterm elections at polling places
However, as things stand, the Republican victory predicted by everyone in the early election will basically not happen.
How is President Biden's achievement?
Military mushrooms said at the beginning that the midterm elections can be regarded as a "midterm exam" for the US president, so since it is an exam, what about President Biden's results?
According to Pew Research Center data in October, Biden's early approval rating was high, reaching 59% in April 2021, all thanks to Biden's anti-epidemic measures in the early days of his presidency. But in the face of high inflation and unemployment, as well as immigration, gun control, race and other long-standing issues in American society, coupled with the haste and confusion shown by the US military in the full withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan, his support rate has also declined, and only 38% of adults currently support Biden.
▲ Biden's approval rating
The disapproval rate is as high as 59%, and 40% of them are very unsupportive. At the same time, Biden's support rating within the party has fallen from 93% in April 2021 to 71% currently. Judging from this series of data, Mr. Biden's "midterm results" are really not good.
What are the key factors influencing the election?
When Jun Wu Mu did not do well in the exam when he was a child, the teacher would let him sort out the wrong questions, knowing where he was wrong in order to have the opportunity not to continue to make mistakes, so President Biden's "where is the midterm exam wrong"?
According to a Pew Center survey, 79% of people said that economic factors largely affect the direction of their midterm election votes, which shows that the economy is the top priority affecting the midterm elections.
▲ The survey shows that Americans are most concerned about economic issues
So what is the biggest economic problem in the United States right now? Four words - inflation, according to data released by the Federal Reserve in August and September this year, since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the United States in February 2020, the inflation rate in the United States has been rising, reaching 9.1% in June 2022, a new high in 40 years.
This year, we can always see news about "Fed interest rate hikes" in the economic news, the purpose of which is to control inflation, but it does not seem to have much effect, and the high inflation rate continues to erode everyone's pocket wages, bank savings and consumer confidence. According to a survey by the University of Michigan, the confidence of American consumers in the country's economic situation is at an all-time low.
▲ Federal Reserve data
Speaking of this, I can't help but shout a word of injustice for President Biden, inflation is actually a global phenomenon, and the pot of US inflation cannot be completely buckled on Biden's head.
Moreover, Biden has also made great efforts to reduce unemployment, for example, in October this year, the United States added 260,000 jobs. In his 20 months as president, Biden has created more than 10 million new jobs, a number that no president in American history can do.
But the reality is so cruel, even if jobs hit new highs, even if inflation is not the pot of Biden and the Democratic Party, but who let you Biden and the Democratic Party be in power now? So regardless of whether the current economic woes facing the United States are the result of Biden and Democratic Party policies, voters will put the blame on the current administration.
The BBC interviewed a voter named Jerome Phillips, 59, who voted for Biden and the Democratic Party in 2020 but now he doesn't know who to vote for. While he knows that the Biden administration is not entirely to blame for the current "bad economy," he also feels that Biden is a "complete disappointment."
"He (Biden) didn't do anything to help the economy after he took office, he didn't do anything, prices were rising, he couldn't eat," he said. ”
Unknown variable
The results of the midterm elections exposed the public's dissatisfaction with the current government, which also created an opportunity for Trump's return, which became the biggest variable in American politics after the midterm elections.
Just the day before the midterm elections, Musk suddenly spoke out, calling on "independent-minded" voters to vote for the Republican Party, which is undoubtedly a naked vote pull. You must know that Musk has always voted for the Democratic Party in the past, and now he suddenly pulls votes for the Republican Party, which can also see that the Democratic Party is not sitting firmly.
What's more, the current Musk is not the previous Musk, who used to be the richest man in the world, and now Musk has become a big boss of Twitter. Musk can become like today, it is not a matter of a day or two, interested friends can go to see the previous articles of military mushrooms. "Mars Madman, the richest man in the world! How is Living Iron Man made? 》
▲Musk entered Twitter
As the world's largest public social media platform, Twitter's influence is self-evident. If Trump could succeed in becoming president, Twitter made a big contribution. At that time, the mainstream media in the United States, such as the New York Times, the Washington Post, CNN, etc., all believed that Trump could not defeat Hillary, what was the result? Trump just won, and the biggest secret weapon is Twitter. So much so that Trump in his later term of office is even more "Twitter governance", not to participate in major meetings can be, but not tweet can not, and even the appointment and removal of many important officials, the parties first see on Twitter, and then receive their own layoff notice.
▲ Trump, who governs the country by Twitter
In 2021, Trump's Twitter account was blocked because of the "attack on Capitol Hill" incident, and he simply paid for a social platform himself, in the modern communication pattern, no newspaper and television can, but no social media is absolutely impossible.
Now, Musk, who has become a Twitter boss, has announced that he will unblock the Twitter account of former President Trump, and now he is publicly calling on people to support the Republican Party, and the impact is self-evident. Trump is likely to return to the king, his supporters will also occupy the high ground on Twitter, when the entire Twitter will become a tool for Republican canvassing, such a big propaganda machine falls into the hands of the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party can only "little widow watching the sedan car" ——— anxious.
▲ In fact, Biden's statements on Twitter are not few, the picture shows Biden tweeting that "Donald Trump has failed the United States." ”
Therefore, the midterm elections will become the biggest variable in American politics, and the pattern of public opinion and the rules of the game in the United States will undergo major changes. Perhaps this change will not be obvious in the short term, but in the long run, it may seriously impact the political landscape of the United States.
Upcoming general elections
After the midterm elections in the United States, everyone's attention will be focused on the 2024 presidential election. According to US media reports, Biden and Trump have recently said that they will prepare to run again, and if nothing else, the 2024 election is likely to be the 2.0 version of the 2020 election.
▲CNN said that US President Biden and former President Trump both appeared in Pennsylvania on the 5th local time
If Trump does become president again in 2024, he will become the 45th and 47th presidents of the United States, and will also be the second president in American history to lose and win the election, the last cross-border elected president is the 22nd and 24th President Grover Cleveland, who served as the president of the United States in 1885 and 1893 respectively, and was also the first US president to accept and meet with the head of the Qing government of China, and the person who visited the United States on behalf of China at that time was Li Hongzhang.
Therefore, if Trump wins again, then this alone will make him a unique mark in American history.
▲ In 2020, Trump delivered a speech for re-election
In addition, Trump is also the only political amateur in American history who has no political experience before becoming president, no government office, no military experience, in our words, "workplace white", workplace white elected president itself is an inspirational story, his experience will also inspire more amateurs to participate in political activities, even if Trump cannot be elected in 2024, Biden will face more opponents and more pressure.
With less than two years to go until the 2024 U.S. election, we don't know what else will happen during that time, and of course Biden must be hoping that nothing will happen again.