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Shi Shi, a reporter from Southern Finance and Economics All Media, reported from Shanghai
A shares open high and go low
First, let's take a look at today's closing of A-shares. According to Nancai Financial Terminal, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13% to 3083.4 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.24% to 11113.46 points; The ChiNext index fell 1.25% to 2375.21 points. How to view the recent trend of A-shares? Let's listen to the interpretation of Fan Ruoying, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute.
The internal and external environment of A-shares has been improved and repaired
Global Financial Connection: What is the logic of the recent rebound of A-shares? What does the continuous inflow of northbound funds mean?
Fan Ruoying: In recent days, A-shares have shown a relatively obvious rebound, mainly due to the improvement and repair of the entire internal and external environment, which has promoted a better repair trend in market sentiment and increased investors' risk appetite.
From the perspective of the domestic environment, with the release of twenty measures to further optimize the epidemic prevention and control work, the interference and impact of the epidemic on the future mainland economy will be further weakened, it is expected that the steady growth policy may be further effective and increased, it is expected that the recovery of the mainland economy will be more optimistic, and the market expectation of economic growth will show obvious repair and improvement.
From the perspective of the international environment, the recently released US inflation data showed a weaker than expected decline, which promoted the cooling of the market's expectations for the Fed's tightening monetary policy in the future, and the concern about further tightness of overseas liquidity is also weakening, so the external disturbance of A-shares is expected to gradually weaken in the future.
Recently, the continuous inflow of capital from the north shows that the confidence of international investors in the future operation of the mainland economy is increasing, and the attractiveness of China's financial market to overseas investors is also increasing.
In the future, A-shares will show an overall volatile upward trend
Global Financial Connection: Will A-shares launch a "New Year's Eve market" next? What do you think of the future?
Fan Ruoying: It is expected that A-shares will show an overall volatile upward trend in the future, and I believe that the trend will be relatively optimistic, and the main supporting factors are reflected in the following three aspects.
First, with the introduction of 20 measures to further optimize the epidemic prevention and control work, market confidence has been effectively boosted, and it is believed that the boost and repair of market confidence will continue in the future. Second, in the future, China's economy will show a positive trend of continuous repair, and solid macroeconomic fundamentals will also provide relatively strong support for the future trend of A-shares. Third, the Fed's tightening monetary policy has gradually entered the late stage, and at present and in the future, the disturbance of overseas geopolitical factors is also weakening, so the external risks faced by A-shares are weakening.
From these three aspects, we expect that A-shares may show a relatively optimistic outlook in the future.
Hong Kong stocks extended their rally
Let's take a look at the close of Hong Kong stocks today. According to Nancai Financial Terminal, as of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.7% to 17619.71 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.8% to 3554.39 points. For the interpretation of the Hong Kong stock market, let's connect with Wen Tianna, CEO of Boda Capital International.
The external situation and favorable policies support the Hong Kong stock market
Global Finance Connect: How do you comment on the market of Hong Kong stocks today? How will the 16 financial initiatives to support real estate affect the market?
Wen Tianna: After the sharp volatility in recent months, the performance of the Hong Kong stock market has stabilized in the past week. I think this has a certain correlation with the situation in the peripheral markets, such as some economic data in the United States is not entirely ideal, which suppresses interest rate hikes; In addition, inflation has eased slightly, which has a relatively obvious positive (impact) on the overall layout of the capital market, including exchange rate trends and interest rate trends.
In addition to the external market situation is more favorable and conducive to the development of the capital market, another point also needs to be noted, that is, the financial policy encourages the inner house more obviously, and also has great support for the performance of the capital market on Monday, which is the concern for the liquidity of the inner house. So in this case, investors will definitely become more and more active in the layout.
The end of the year is a good time to invest
Global Finance Connect: Has Hong Kong stocks reached an inflection point? Will there be further warm-up next?
Wintina: It is also important to note that after rising to the 17,000 level, Hong Kong stocks continue to rise all the way above 17,500, and from the trend point of view, you can see a clear positive turnaround. So I think that before the end of the year, the support for domestic demand including real estate, including many liquidity policies, will help the development of different sectors.
In addition, in order to stabilize the economy before the end of the year, some investment projects, including infrastructure, will continue to start, these factors will have a favorable impact on the market, which is a better investment opportunity for investors, which is also a key point worth paying attention to in the near future.
On the whole, I think investors should be cautious in their layout, because there is always optimism, the market has rebounded a lot, and for a small number of investors, there should be some room for profit. However, it is clear that there is a clear basic improvement in the capital market, which is helpful for some short-term operations.
The three major indexes of U.S. stocks closed higher collectively
Last week, buoyed by factors such as a slowdown in inflation in the United States, the three major indexes of U.S. stocks rose collectively. Can the rally continue? Will the market withstand the test of heavy data this week? Let's take a look at the report sent back to Xiufang by the reporter of Southern Finance All Media Group in New York.
The Nasdaq surged 8% U.S. stocks posted their best weekly gain since June
Xiang Xiufang: The US inflation data fell faster than expected in October, which triggered the market's hopes that the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of interest rate hikes, pushing US stocks to their best week since June this year.
The S&P 500 gained 5.9% over the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was the most eye-catching, up 8.1%. Despite this, the Nasdaq has still fallen 28% so far this year, and it has not yet stepped out of bear market territory.
With much uncertainty surrounding the economic and inflationary situation, many investors remain skeptical that such a rally can be sustained. From historical experience, an important feature of bear market is that the amplitude of fluctuations up and down is large. Whether this rally will be another technical adjustment after a deep fall also requires investors to remain cautious and attentive.
Julien Stouff, founder of Wall Street hedge fund firm Stouff Capital, believes that this is a typical manifestation of a big bear market rally. As for the performance of technology stocks, David Eiswert, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, believes that while stock valuations have fallen a lot, many tech companies still don't look necessarily cheap.
Inflation Situation Remains Uncertain Wall Street fund managers remain cautious
Xiang Xiufang: It is worth mentioning that although the latest data shows signs of high inflation in the United States, many large Wall Street fund managers still maintain a cautious stance, believing that inflationary pressures on a global scale may remain strong for a long time to come.
Kelsey Berro, a fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, believes that the Fed's path to a "soft landing" by pulling inflation all the way back to its target level without causing a substantial recession remains narrow. While the overall direction of inflation should be lower, the pace of deceleration and the eventual level of stabilization remain highly uncertain.
In addition, Bank of America believes that any fund manager looking to quickly ease price pressures may be "ahead of the curve." Bank of America strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, warned in the report that inflation factors in the services sector and wages will continue. They believe that headline inflation will fall, but it will still be higher than it has been in the past 20 years.
Watch for US retail sales data for October and the latest statements from Fed officials
Xiang Xiufang: For the market, the biggest test at present is whether the rebound momentum of the past week can continue, and this largely depends on changes in economic data. In the coming week, investors will focus on US consumption data, on the one hand, the US retail sales data for October, on the other hand, Walmart and Target two large retailers will release the latest earnings.
In addition, a number of Fed officials will speak on different occasions this week, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether Fed officials will have any new statements about the inflation situation and policy path in the context of changes in market expectations for Fed policy.
(The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.) The opinions of the guests of this program only represent their own views. ）
Curator: Yu Xiaona
Executive Producer: Shi Shi
Responsible editors: Du Hongyu, He Jia, Zhao Yue, Li Yinong
Production: Yuan Sijie
Filmed: Li Yinong
Intern reporter: Hao Jiaqi
New Media Coordinator: Ding Qingyun, Zeng Tingfang, Lai Xi, Huang Daxun
Overseas Operation Executive Producer: Huang Yanshu
Overseas Operation Editor: Zhang Ran, Tang Shuangyan, Wu Wanjie
Overseas business cooperation: Huang Zihao
Produced by: Southern Finance All Media Group
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