In the past few months, the US government has been adding fuel to the fire of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, not only has been providing weapons and equipment for the Ukrainian army, but also poured cold water on the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations many times, from State Department spokesman Price to White House national security adviser Sullivan, have claimed that if the Russian army does not completely withdraw from the territory of Ukraine, Russia and Ukraine will not have the conditions for negotiation. There was even such a political atmosphere in the US political arena for a time: whoever advocates negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible will "go through Russia." However, the political atmosphere in the United States has changed significantly recently, slowing down or even stopping aid to Ukraine has become an option for the government, and whether to urge Ukraine to negotiate with Russia as soon as possible is also within the consideration of the top level of the US government. Recently, the top general of the US military, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Army General Mark Milley, on behalf of the military, urged Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia as soon as possible.
Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia is fighting NATO and the Western world alone. Nothing resembles the past, except that we know how to destroy the enemy.
On November 10, local time, the New York Times reported that a senior official, who did not want to be named, said that an internal meeting of US military and political officials was held recently. Marco Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at the meeting that Ukraine has made considerable progress after the autumn counterattack, and now Ukraine should take care of it and consolidate its achievements in the autumn counterattack at the negotiating table. According to the New York Times, a White House secretary said that Mark Milley has repeatedly called on the US government in internal meetings in the past few weeks to urge Ukraine and Russia to hold peace talks on relatively realistic terms. Milley believes that the Russian army has built a large number of strong defense lines in the area under its control, and as the Russian army withdraws to the east bank of the Dnieper River, it can be arranged along the river, and it will be more difficult for the Ukrainian army to make progress. Milley also cited the First World War as an example, saying that European countries waged years of trench warfare at the cost of tens of millions of casualties without making any progress. He hopes to use this to convince Biden and other dignitaries of the U.S. government.
In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, the permanent representative of the United States to NATO, Julian Smith, said that the United States hopes to start negotiations on Ukraine in the future, but believes that it is up to Kiev to decide the terms of negotiations. "We hope to negotiate at some point in the future, and the United States wants Vladimir Zelensky to set the conditions for sitting at the negotiating table," she said.
But Biden's other advisers and civil servants believe it's premature to negotiate. The civilian officials believe that now that Ukraine has achieved a major victory in Kharkov and recaptured the city of Kherson, the situation is very good. The United States should not pressure Ukraine to back down when it is gaining momentum. And if Ukraine retreats under U.S. pressure, Russia will have a chance. However, these civilian officials also admitted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to need to be resolved through negotiations in the end, but now is not the best time to negotiate. According to the Russian newspaper, Russian Ambassador to the United States Antonov said on November 11 that as long as the United States is willing, "a snap of the fingers can end the conflict", because the current Kiev government has long lost its autonomy and does not dare to disobey Washington's instructions.
WASHINGTON, Nov. 12 (Russian Satellite News Agency) -- The United States will continue to provide assistance to Ukraine to improve its position on the battlefield, said US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. "The U.S. is doing the same thing as it was six months ago: We will do everything to put Ukraine in a better position on the battlefield so that when they decide to negotiate, they can be in a better position at the negotiating table," he told reporters on the plane No. 1 to Cambodia. ”
As the top general, Mark Milley called on the US government to pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Russia as soon as possible for the following two reasons. First, the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict has consumed a lot of US military power, making it difficult to take into account other regions. Over the past few months, the United States has supplied Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of shells of various types, a large number of precision-guided weapons and man-portable air defence systems. As a result, the inventory of some US weapons and equipment is close to exhaustion, which seriously affects the combat readiness level of the US military.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said at a press conference on the 10th that the United States will announce a new round of security assistance to Ukraine today.
In October, U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin announced a moratorium on the delivery of precision-guided weapons to Ukraine, which some military experts analyzed was because the U.S. military's inventory of precision-guided weapons was insufficient. At present, the US military has transferred the "Ford" aircraft carrier battle group and the "George Bush" aircraft carrier battle group to the Mediterranean, and deployed the 101st Air Assault Division and the 82nd Airborne Division in Romania and Poland, which has led to the emptiness of the US military in the Asia-Pacific region. In order to increase the density of forces in Europe, the US military has transferred its only ABCT (brigade-level armored battle group) stationed in the Asia-Pacific region to Eastern Europe, and there is currently no armored force in the entire Asia-Pacific region. If the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, the problem of the lack of skills of the US military will continue to intensify.
The British Ministry of Defense issued a statement stating that the United Kingdom will supply about 1,000 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine in the near future.
Secondly, the Ukrainian army has been greatly weakened and it is difficult to restore its strength. After more than eight months of fighting, the Ukrainian army has suffered extremely heavy casualties. In order to maintain the size of the force, Ukraine has organized several national mobilizations, the most recent of which the Ukrainian government announced that men between the ages of 18 and 60 throughout the country, regardless of occupation or health, would likely receive summonses for conscription. If the destruction of equipment can be replenished in a few months, the mass destruction of personnel is almost irreversible. Since the recapture of Hongliman, the Ukrainian army has not been able to capture any settlement for more than a month. This time, the Russian army took the initiative to abandon the Kherson region on the west bank of the Dnieper River, and the Ukrainian army failed to organize any pursuit. This shows that the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army has greatly decreased compared with before, and there are a large number of old, weak, sick and disabled people in the army who are not suitable for the army at all, and even if such troops are given more weapons and equipment, it is difficult to improve their combat effectiveness.
Ukraine reinforced its forces in the Zaporozhye direction
Ukraine is in the most favorable situation, and it may well be the best and final time for negotiations. Once the elite units of the Russian army have rested and mobilized troops have completed their training, Russia will close the door to negotiations until the end of a phase of combat operations. At that time, even if Russia and Ukraine continue to negotiate, the conditions offered by Russia are bound to be more stringent than now. Mark Milley, a professional soldier, recognized this and urged the US government to put pressure on Ukraine as soon as possible to facilitate negotiations. However, the civilian officials of the United States seem to be still immersed in the "good news" of Ukraine and do not see the fact that the Ukrainian army has been extremely weak. Ukraine may miss the last opportunity to negotiate under the wrong guidance of these U.S. government officials.