With the passage of time and the advancement of technology, the possibility of unknown players appearing in the World Cup has been greatly reduced. Routine use of analytics, 'digital scouting' (video footage takes precedence over in-person viewing of players) and meticulous data across the globe mean that any national team player around the age of 15, regardless of where they come from, is immediately flagged.
So when it comes to the transfer market, big tournaments are now an opportunity for a club draft to confirm if a player has what it takes to join the club. This rule is especially evident in the World Cup. Every player is under different psychological pressures, but everyone will give their best for the final trophy. In this case, observing a player's behaviour while representing the country can give scouts and clubs a better understanding of their character. However, for the most part, clubs already have a complete understanding of what they are observing.
However, this year's World Cup has some more challenges than in previous years. The Qatar 2022 World Cup starts on November 20 and ends on December 18. Then in January, a month-long transfer window opens, and the club will have a short time to take advantage of what is observed from the players on the pitch. But with international football set to take center stage next month and domestic leagues suspended, clubs may also have more breathing room to figure out what they want.
Joining a World Cup mid-season in Europe will have an impact on the overall plan for the season, especially in terms of how to measure and determine the fitness level of players. It's almost like a new season's preseason is coming at you. This is despite the disruption experienced at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak. Most clubs will see the upcoming break as an opportunity to assess, adjust or continue to implement their priorities ahead of the January window.
"Probation" meetings with agents about players who did not participate in the World Cup may take place weeks earlier than normal. As the usual busy November and pre-Christmas fixture schedules have been cancelled, the club will make a judgment based on the evidence previously gathered to pave the way for specific negotiations to come. As a result, you may see more deals in principle before January 1.
On the financial front, due to the current economic downturn and the pandemic in recent years, Europe's top clubs have had to become more flexible and more cautious when it comes to new signings. However, any potential acquisition based on a strong World Cup performance could come with a huge premium, as a player's transfer fee rises with every goal, assist, tackle or save.
January is traditionally not the time to spend big money, but clubs are likely to be forced to sign due to injuries, fatigue or simply taking advantage of an opportunity that might not otherwise have arisen.
For players, the timing of the World Cup offers a novel element that doesn't usually apply to the normal annual scouting cycle, so those headline shooters have a unique opportunity to put themselves front and center, bringing to the attention of club owners, presidents and sponsors that they will all be watching the Qatari game.
This has happened before, but history tells us that if you make a transfer based on your World Cup performance, it's not always good. Here are some examples of stars who have burst out in the past, as well as names that some clubs may be keeping a close eye on this tournament.
Past World Cup wonders
James Rodriguez was signed by Real Madrid after a strong performance at the 2014 World Cup
James Rodriguez, Monaco to Real Madrid, €75 million, 2014
Although the Colombia international became a rising star thanks to the excellent performances of Porto and Monaco, he firmly put himself firmly in an important position at the 2014 World Cup with some awesome performances. Not only did Rodriguez win the Golden Boot with six goals – a rare feat for an attacking midfielder, let alone in a team that did not reach the semi-finals – but his brilliant volley against Uruguay also earned him Puskas Goal of the Year award. Real Madrid is no stranger to signing the hottest young players in the World Cup, and before the end of the game, Real Madrid struck quickly and almost completed a €75 million transfer.
While Rodriguez could hardly be called a complete defeat at the Bernabeu – he scored 13 league goals in his first season, won two La Liga titles and two Champions League titles – his six-year stay was impressive. After a modest spell at Everton on loan at Bayern Munich and a brief spell with Qatari side Al Rejan, the 31-year-old is now traded to Greece's Olympiacos.
Haji Diouf, Lens to Liverpool, €15 million, 2002
After Senegal's 1-0 defeat to France in the 2002 World Cup opener, Liverpool manager Steven Hollier immediately recruited the Senegalese forward. Diouf dyed his signature hair, with his powerful running and technique, he never let the French defence rest, and at just 21 years old, he seems to have everything he needs to be the next big man. Although he did not score in the match, he provided three assists for his teammates, and the world was happy with his performance in Senegal's quarter-final loss to Turkey. However, Diouf did not adapt to Liverpool's style of play, with the controversial striker leaving Anfield for Bolton after three seasons (initially on loan and later a third of the €15 million paid by Liverpool). He scored 28 goals in 243 games for clubs such as Sunderland, Leeds and Blackburn Rovers and forged an alternative Premier League career. Diouf retired from Sabah FC in Malaysia in 2015.
Gilberto Silva, Atletico to Arsenal, €9 million, 2002
Little known outside South America at the time, the aggressive No.6 midfielder played a major role in Brazil's success in 2002 – he didn't miss a minute and was snapped up by Arsenal before the celebrations ended. Known as the invisible wall for his tackles and endurance, Silva quickly became an integral part of his new club, providing balance and fighting spirit to one of the Premier League era's top teams, as he has proven for his country. After six seasons in charge at Arsene Wenger, Silva left Panathinaikos in the summer of 2008, where he made more than 250 appearances, won a Premier League title and won two FA Cups.
Enna Valencia, Pachuca, Mexico to West Ham, €15 million, 2014
Valencia, who was relatively unknown at the time, captured the world's attention by scoring three goals in his first two matches for Ecuador at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. If scoring wasn't enough, his incredible speed, direct runs, gorgeous turns and some flash of inspiration were equally impressive. Although he had only moved from Ecuador's Emelek to Pachuca, Mexico, a year earlier, West Ham United quickly paid €15 million to bring Valencia to Upton Park that summer. Although his performances in the Premier League never lived as promised in the World Cup, he scored 10 goals in 68 games for West Ham and three in 23 games in a season on loan at Everton. In the three years before moving to Turkey, he scored 34 goals in 118 appearances and is currently Fenerbahce's top scorer in the league this season, scoring 12 goals in 11 appearances. Valencia also started his country in this World Cup.
The future miracle of the 2022 World Cup?
Manchester United have expressed interest in signing Cody Gakpo
Cody. Gakpo, 23 years old, Eindhoven/Netherlands
With more than a dozen top European clubs, including Manchester United, already watching him, the next few weeks could be crucial for the PSV winger's future. Gakpo has proven himself in Eredivisi in the Netherlands – he has scored 36 goals and assisted 39 in 105 games – and he looks ready to go further. The Dutch striker has excellent possession talent, excellent finishing ability and defensive contribution in the game, and he has the basic conditions to be a player at the highest level. Although he has entered a goal drought in recent weeks, assists and key passes have been pouring in. If he shines in Qatar, the €60 million transfer fee could look cheap.
Royce O'Penda, 22 years old, Lens/Belgium
While there is stiff competition on the offensive line, the Lens striker does bring an advantage. He scored a hat-trick on the bench in Ligue 1 against Toulouse two weeks ago, which was not only a sign of his good form, but also showed that he could be a "super substitute", and he scored within seven minutes of his senior Nations Cup debut against Poland in June. Lopenda likes to stand on the shoulders of defenders, always threatens the offside line, and he is good at finding space in the box. The 22-year-old has struggled at Club Brugge but has been outstanding at Vitesse and Lens over the past year, scoring seven goals in 14 appearances this season.
Moisés Caicedo, 21, Brighton/Ecuador
Usually, the attacking players who get the most attention in big competitions are the attacking players, but can the Ecuadorian midfielder prove himself? Become Gilberto Silva of the year? In 2021, Brighton signed Caicedo for £4.5 million, and Caicedo was loaned to Belshott but returned in January 2022 and cleverly integrated into the rhythm of the Premier League. His week-by-week improvement has not gone unnoticed by the European football powerhouse. In addition to tactical discipline, the hardworking Ecuadorian has decent ability to tackle, press, intercept and move the ball. A good game could also spark interest outside the Premier League in the young Ecuadorian squad, but Brighton have reportedly quoted a £85m transfer fee.