[Interviewee/Lv Xiang, text/Observer Network Wang Hui, Liu Qian, Zhang Jingjuan, Editor/Feng Xue]
The US midterm elections are nearing the end, and judging by the current voting results: the Republican Party is expected to win the House of Representatives; The Senate election continues to be stale, and the conclusion is still out on who will go to it.
Let's take a look at the specific "battle situation", CNN data shows:
In the House, Republicans currently have 211 seats, ahead of Democrats with 198, while 218 seats are needed to take control of the House.
The Republican Party is currently "winning a small victory" in the House of Representatives, and the lead is not as good as expected. The "red wave" they had intended to set off did not appear, and the Wall Street Journal believes that the overall result looks more like a "red ripple".
The "tussle" between the two parties in the Senate is even more intense. Of the 100 seats in the Senate, Democrats now have 48 and Republicans 49.
The remaining three seats will determine the final vesting of the Senate. In other words, the next majority of seats in the US Senate will be determined by the election results of the three major "swing states" of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.
The current bipartisan split in the Senate is 50:50, but the Democrats have narrowly gained control of the Senate by a crucial vote from Senate President, Vice President Harris (Democrat).
As a result, Democrats can continue to control the Senate as long as they win 50 seats (and more) in the midterm elections. Republicans, on the other hand, need at least 51 seats to win the Senate.
To put it simply, whether Democrats or Republicans, whoever wins 2 (or more) of the three major "swing states" in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada will win the Senate.
Among them, Georgia has decided to open "overtime". According to state rules, if a candidate receives less than 50 percent of the vote in the midterm elections, a runoff will be held on December 6.
Therefore, to know the final result of the Senate, you can wait a few days to see the election results in Arizona and Nevada, and you need to wait for the results of next month's "overtime".
Lu Xiang, an expert on American issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Observer.com that he judged a few months ago that the Democratic Party would inevitably lose the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
Judging from various poll data at the time, Biden's own support rating dropped sharply, and the net support rating once reached -20%, which also affected the support rate of the entire Democratic Party. Originally, the Democratic Party was 8% ahead of the Republican Party, but as Biden's net support rating fell below 0, the Democratic Party's net support rating gradually turned negative," Lu Xiang said, according to the US election system, generally speaking, if the Democratic Party cannot lead the Republican Party by more than 3% in the support rate of the major categories, they have no hope of winning the House of Representatives.
[Observer Network Note: Net support rate = support rate - disapproval rate. If a candidate gets 50% approval and 30% disapproval, his net approval rating is 50%-30%=20%. 】
He believes that the Biden administration's "double-line failure" in domestic and foreign affairs is the reason for the sharp decline in his and Democratic support ratings, and it is also the most important reason why "the Democratic Party is likely to lose the House of Representatives in this midterm election." Other reasons are trivial in comparison. ”
On November 8, local time, Georgia, USA, the United States midterm elections were voted. Source: The Paper
For the American people, the deepest and most intuitive feeling is the economic problem.
"A month before the midterm elections, Obama suggested that Biden should talk more about the economy," Mr. Lu said, but Mr. Biden did not do so, he was avoiding economic problems or using lies to cover them up.
For example, Biden said that this year's pension growth rate in the United States is the highest ever. But in fact he did not take inflation into account, and if inflation is taken into account, growth is low. Now the White House has deleted this speech of Biden about pensions, and they are even embarrassed to keep it on file. ”
Lu Xiang believes that the Biden administration's performance in the past two years is a "negative asset" in the midterm elections, which can be said to be a "big gift" from him to the Republican Party, "so that the Republican Party is likely to seize the House of Representatives." But Trump is very generous, and backhanded gave the Democratic Party a "big gift", which is estimated to make the Democratic Party barely keep the Senate. ”
"Trump's 'big gift' is his candidate in several key 'swing states'," Lu Xiang said, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and other key "swing states", the Republican Party was originally very hopeful to win, but Trump's designated candidates are really incompetent, all below the line (under the general standard).
For example, Pennsylvania's star doctor, Mehmet Oz, has already lost; Georgia football star Herschel Walker, scandal-ridden and without any political experience...
"Generally, influential figures in the party don't get involved in the primaries, but Trump got involved early this time. And the candidates he strongly supported did not perform well, which created the current situation. Lu Xiang explained.
On November 8, local time, Atlanta, USA, Georgia Republican candidate Herschel Walker attended election night activities. Source: The Paper
Biden's life may be very difficult for the next two years....
The so-called midterm election is a large-scale election held in the United States halfway through the presidential term, mainly to elect all members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the senators, some governors, members of the state legislature, and a number of local officials.
While the president's name is not on the ballot, the outcome of this midterm election is important to him and will largely determine what he can do for the first two years of his term.
If the ruling party can hold a majority in Congress, White House policies will be easier to pass and implement. Conversely, the president will face many constraints in exercising his powers.
However, in the history of the United States, the ruling party has tended to be more likely to lose seats in the midterm elections. The data shows that between 1934 and 2018, the ruling party successfully defended its seats in both houses only in 1934, 1998 and 2002.
It seems that for Democrats, losing is fate.
In this year's midterm elections, Republicans are expected to win the House of Representatives, while the Senate is seen as uncertain.
Still, Biden commented: "We lost fewer seats in the House of Representatives than any Democratic president in at least 40 years in the first midterm elections." And, we have the best gubernatorial midterm elections since 1986. ”
"For Biden, if he can keep the Senate, he can still brag a little," Lu said, but the American people will not have more confidence in the entire national system because of the results of this midterm election. The people are desperate about the current problems in the United States. If I were an American citizen, I would feel that who is up and down has little to do with me, because no one has the ability to solve the problems of the moment.
On November 10, local time, Biden delivered a speech at the Howard Theatre in Washington. Source: Visual China
According to the U.S. Constitution, all matters involving the budget and finances must be initiated by the House of Representatives, and the House of Representatives cannot discuss them without initiating them.
Therefore, Lu Xiang believes that if the Democratic Party loses the House of Representatives, the Biden administration will face a huge dilemma in terms of budget next. Republicans will use their advantage in the House of Representatives to set various policy problems for the Biden administration.
In addition, Republicans have made it clear that they will launch an investigation into the Biden administration on the first day they take control of the House, including the way it handles Afghanistan and the border, some White House officials, Biden himself, and even Biden's son.
In addition to domestic affairs, Biden will also face a series of diplomatic problems, the first of which is Ukraine.
Lu Xiang analyzed: "Republicans must oppose continued aid to Ukraine, and once they win the House of Representatives, they have the means to oppose it." Next, Biden will face a more difficult situation than withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, if the United States directly withdraws from the war in Ukraine, it will not only be difficult to explain to the American people, but also to his European allies. ”
"Everyone (Europe) followed the United States, and it turned out to be dire, there was no heating in winter, and as a result, the United States left it alone and left a mess for Europe to deal with. I think the United States will face the greatest dilemma ever in its relations with its European allies. ”
Lu Xiang believes that this is almost a strategic split between the United States and Europe, and Europe will naturally repair its relations with Russia.
In terms of relations with China, "some European countries represented by Germany have not completely listened to the United States, and they will not follow the United States after that." The idea of the United States trying to include Europe in the so-called 'Indo-Pacific strategy' will become completely wishful thinking. ”
"This midterm election may be a blow to the confidence of both parties"
This year's midterm elections will have an important impact on the political environment in the United States over the next two years, and to what extent will they affect the 2024 US election?
Lu Xiang believes that there is no special direct relationship between the two. "But the midterm elections are a blow to confidence for both Democrats and Republicans."
"Biden, as the leader of the Democratic Party, if he loses the House of Representatives, he will 'be guilty.'" And if the Republicans do not win the Senate, it will also be a blow to them, and Trump's personal confidence will also be hit. In some key swing states, Trump should be competing with the strongest, but the few he has selected don't look optimistic right now. ”
Before the midterm elections officially opened, Trump suddenly announced that he would announce a major decision at Mar-a-Lago on November 15. At present, many media believe that Trump may announce a third US presidential election at that time.
On November 8, local time, former US President Trump and his wife Melania appeared at the polling station to vote and left. Source: Visual China
However, Trump's case has added a series of uncertainties to his candidacy.
"These cases will be reopened after the midterm elections," Lu said, adding that according to U.S. practice, they will not initiate lawsuits against key political figures before a major election. However, after the election, the investigation will continue, and prosecutions may follow. Some of the charges in Mr. Trump's case are criminal, and his prospects are uncertain.
He believes that "if the investigations in which Trump has been involved in have not affected him, such as not finding him guilty in the end, or even if he is found guilty, but the Supreme Court finally absolves him, then he will definitely run again." ”
Trump, born in 1946, is 76 years old this year, and Trump will be 78 years old in the 2024 US presidential election.
"In the Republican primary stage, he has no challenger," Mr. Lu said, adding that it was difficult to say who would be more hopeful when it came to the election stage.
But, "if Trump is sentenced and executed, that's another story." In particular, if he is found guilty of possession of classified documents, one of the penalties is that he cannot hold any public office. Therefore, we have to observe that there are two situations and two scripts. ”
Lu Xiang believes that if Trump does not run, there will definitely be a chaotic war within the Republican Party. Although everyone now thinks that DeSantis may have the highest popularity, "in fact, once Trump does not run, many people will jump out, and DeSantis may not be able to maintain his current reputation." ”
At present, Biden has said that he intends to run for re-election in the 2024 election and may make a formal decision early next year. In a few days, Biden will celebrate his 80th birthday, and in 2024, Biden will be 82 years old.
"Biden's physical condition is visibly getting worse by the naked eye, and it is difficult to predict whether he will be able to hold out until the 2024 election with the kind of intense campaign." Lu Xiang said.
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