The United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 report predicts that the world's population will reach 8 billion on the 15th of this month, which means that in less than a week, the planet will usher in a new demographic milestone.
In his speech on World Population Day on July 11, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, "This year is a landmark year and we look forward to the birth of the 8 billionth human inhabitants of the planet." ”
Guterres said this unprecedented population growth is brought about by advances in health, nutrition and medicine. But while celebrating human diversity and progress, it should also take into account humanity's shared responsibility to the planet.
Will the world's population really reach 8 billion on November 15?
The United Nations released the World Population Prospects 2022 report (hereinafter referred to as the report) on July 11, stating that "the world's population will reach 8 billion by November 15".
The report comprehensively evaluates data from 1,758 censuses held around the world between 1950 and 2022, data from 2,890 population sample surveys, and various population registers.
However, the date projected by the United Nations is symbolic. According to the website of the British "New Scientist" magazine, the United Nations chose November 15 this year as the anniversary of the world's population reaching 8 billion based on its population growth forecast model, but it is impossible to accurately predict when the world's population will exceed 8 billion.
October 25, 2022 local time, Seoul subway station, South Korea. Photo/Visual China
According to the Wall Street Journal on August 12, the current population projections have a certain margin of error, and the world population is rapidly approaching the 8 billion mark, in fact, the world population is likely to reach this figure at any time in the near future.
Previously, the United Nations chose October 31, 2011, as "7 billion people day", but demographers estimate that this date has a margin of error of more than one year, reaching 7 billion people sometime between March 20, 2011 and April 12, 2012.
Who will be the "8 billionth inhabitant of the planet"?
In his speech on World Population Day, Guterres said, "Looking forward to the birth of the 8 billionth inhabitants of the planet." ”
Previously, the "6 billionth inhabitants of the planet" were nominically designated by the United Nations.
Adnan Mević, the "6 billionth inhabitants of the planet", was born on October 12, 1999, at 002:02 in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The United Nations Population Fund will declare it the 6 billionth human being on Earth at the same time. Then-United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan welcomed his birth.
But the United Nations has not designated the "7 billionth inhabitants of the planet." Omar Galzooddin, then spokesman for the United Nations Population Fund, said: "It is impossible for the United Nations or anyone else to know where or when the 7 billionth inhabitants of the planet will be born." ”
October 14, 2022 local time, Sofia, Bulgaria, newborn in the maternity ward of the hospital. Photo/Visual China
On October 31, 2011, the humanitarian organization Plan International designated Nargis Kumar, a newborn baby girl in India's Uttar Pradesh, as the "7 billionth inhabitant of the planet" to protest sex-selective abortion in India. Kumar is not the only "7 billionth inhabitants of the planet", there are different institutions or organizations that have chosen their "7 billionth inhabitants" in the Philippines, Sri Lanka and other places.
This year, the United Nations did not announce a plan to designate the "8 billionth inhabitants of the planet".
How fast is the world's population growing?
According to the United Nations Population Fund, the world population reached 6 billion on October 12, 1999, 7 billion on October 31, 2011, and 8 billion on November 15, 2022. In other words, it took about 12 years for the world's population to grow from 6 billion to 7 billion, and about 11 years to grow from 7 billion to 8 billion.
The report predicts that by 2037, the world's population will reach 9 billion. This means that it will take about 15 years for the world's population to grow from 8 billion to 9 billion, indicating that the growth rate of the global population is slowing.
Since the United Nations recorded population data, at the end of the 60s of the 20th century, the growth rate of the world's population reached a historical peak of slightly more than 2% per year; In 2020, the global population growth rate fell below 1% annually for the first time.
The report also notes that fertility rates have declined significantly in many countries in recent decades. Today, two-thirds of the world's population lives in countries or regions with fewer than 2.1 children per woman (2.1 children per woman is the fertility level that maintains the same population in a region under low mortality rates).
Between 2022 and 2050, 61 countries or regions around the world are expected to see their populations decline by at least 1%. Low fertility is the main cause of population decline and, in some cases, rising migration rates may also lead to population decline.
What is the limit of population growth?
The report predicts that the world's population will peak at 10.4 billion in the 80s and will remain at this level or begin to decline until 2100.
Regionally, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue to grow through 2100. Australia, New Zealand and other Oceania, Northern Africa and Western Asia will also continue to grow, but at a slower rate.
By 2100, populations in East and South-East Asia, Central and South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and North America are expected to peak and begin to decline.
On October 31, 2022 local time, in Chennai, India, people walked through a crowded commercial street. Photo/Visual China
However, the report notes that long-term population projections are highly uncertain, especially for high-fertility countries that are still in the early stages of demographic transition.
According to the Wall Street Journal, based on different assumptions about human education, health and other factors, demographers have different long-term projections of the world's population, and some demographers believe that 8 billion may be the peak of the world's population.
Where will future population growth be concentrated?
The report predicts that by 2050, more than half of global population growth will be concentrated in these eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. Among them, India is expected to become the world's most populous country as early as 2023, and its population will reach 1.7 billion by 2050.
After 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to contribute more than half of the world's population growth.
The report also notes that countries with the highest fertility rates tend to have the lowest per capita incomes. Over time, global population growth has been increasingly concentrated in the world's poorest countries, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa.
People deliver goods in flat-bottomed boats in a slum on October 19, 2022 local time, Lagos, Nigeria. Photo/Visual China
Will the Earth be overcrowded?
With a global population of 8 billion, some worry that the world is overpopulated and that the earth's resources are not enough to sustain so many people.
British naturalist David Attenborough said in a 2018 interview with the BBC: "The rate of world population growth is very worrying, and although the size of the world population will stabilize in the long run, in my opinion, the size of the world population may exceed the capacity of the earth." ”
In the scientific community, "the carrying capacity of the earth" is a controversial topic. An article on the official website of the World Economic Forum pointed out that for the "carrying capacity of the earth", scientists' lowest estimate is only 500 million people, and the highest estimate reaches 1 trillion people, which is very different.
According to the Boston Globe, the "carrying capacity of the earth" has changed with the progress of human civilization, and 1,000 years ago, the earth could only sustain less than 500 million people. 100 years ago, the Earth was able to carry about 2 billion people.
Stephen Dovers and Colin Butler, scholars at the Australian National University, believe that the "carrying capacity of the planet" is also related to people's consumption habits, writing in a paper that "if everyone on the planet lived like the American middle class, the planet probably only had the carrying capacity of about 2 billion people." But if people only consume what they actually need, then the planet may be able to carry more people. ”
In response, Natalia Kanem, executive director of the United Nations Population Fund, said in an interview with the British newspaper The Guardian last month, "Some people worry that the world is overpopulated and the resources to sustain them are insufficient." I am here to say unequivocally that the size of the world's population is not a cause for concern. ”
Kanem said alarmist rhetoric about overpopulation distracts people and that people should spend more energy helping women, children and marginalized people.
Beijing News reporter Chen Yikai
Editor Zhang Lei Proofreader Li Lijun