On November 8, 2022 local time, New York, USA, New York Governor Kathy Hochu, US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, and New York Attorney General attended the election night event. Photo/IC photo
The 2022 US midterm elections are attracting attention. One reason is the size of this midterm election. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be re-elected, with an additional 39 gubernatorial positions, so this midterm election is the most important in recent years.
Another concern is that Democrats could lose their majorities in the House and Senate and thus control of Congress. Without majorities in both chambers, Democratic administration's policies will be constrained by a Republican-controlled Congress, and many aspects of its foreign policy will be rearranged.
At the same time, in the eyes of Democrats, the midterm elections will test the strength of American democracy, because former President Trump has refused to accept the results of the last presidential election. Trump does not recognize that the presidential election results are a huge blow to American democracy. If the Democrats lose control of both houses this time, it means that Trumpism will once again return to the mainstream of American politics.
At present, the results of the election are gradually being announced.
Most agencies predict Republicans to hold the House steadily
Both parties in the United States also recognize the importance of this midterm election, and bigwigs from both parties are cheering for their candidates before voters vote.
For example, on November 5, former U.S. President Barack Obama cheered on Democratic senator candidate John Feltman of Pennsylvania. On the 6th, former US President Clinton attended a rally in support of Democratic Senator Catherine Masto in Las Vegas, Nevada. President Biden attends an event in New York State in support of his party's Senate candidate, New York Governor Kathy Hochu.
And the Republicans are not to be outdone. On the 5th, former President Trump also attended the Pennsylvania election campaign and spoke at a rally in support of his party's senatorial candidate Mohammed Oz. On the 6th, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon went to Arizona to campaign for Republican Governor Cary Lake, the senator candidate.
Prior to this round of voting day, Democrats had 220 seats in the House of Representatives and Republicans had 212 seats and three seats were vacant. The two parties split the Senate equally with 100 seats, but Democrats gained control through a tie vote from Vice President Harris. Republicans only need 5 seats to occupy a majority in the House of Representatives. And as long as one of the Senate turns to Republicans, the situation controlled by Democrats will be reversed.
The historical record of midterm elections in the United States shows that the ruling party usually loses control of the House of Representatives in midterm elections, and the Democratic Party loses ground more often when it is in power. Statistics show that in the 19 midterm elections held between 1946 and 2018, the president's party won a majority of seats in the House of Representatives only in the 1998 and 2002 midterm elections. In the last three midterm elections, the ruling party has lost control of the House of Representatives.
From the forecasts, most agencies believe that the Republican Party will control the House, and a growing number of forecasting agencies suggest that the Republican Party is also likely to control the Senate. According to a CNN report on November 2, the FiveThirtyEight model found that Republicans ended up in Senate majorities in 52 out of 100 midterm election simulations, while The Economist's model showed Republicans held Senate control in 51 out of 100 simulations. Two months ago, the model predicted that it would favor Democrats controlling the Senate.
The main reason for the recent changes may lie in bipartisan election strategies and voters' concerns. For example, voters' top concerns are still economic issues, which is a bit like the 1992 U.S. presidential election, in which Clinton emerged like a dark horse by answering voters' concerns. According to a poll released on the 6th, 81% of respondents are somewhat or very dissatisfied with the economic situation. This is a level not seen since 2010, before the midterm elections.
At the same time, polls show that 75% of voters believe that the US economy is in recession, which is bound to be detrimental to President Biden's Democratic forces. 61% of voters also believe that the Biden administration is not paying enough attention to the most important issues facing the United States.
In the election campaign, the Republican Party stressed that by voting for the Republican Party, the inflation problem can be solved. This is still attractive to American voters because the Biden administration has failed to bring inflation down too much, and the United States is still at a 40-year inflation peak. Democrats, on the other hand, continue to accuse the Republican Party of undermining democracy, especially the storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters in early January 2021, claiming that if the Republican Party controls both houses, it will cause the rout of American democracy. But voters don't seem to be focused on that.
In addition, there is another factor in the redrawing of U.S. constituencies. This is the first midterm election after the 2020 census, and the demographic redrawing also favors the Republicans. Oregon, for example, added one seat last year after redistricting, a move that Republicans believe has given Republicans multiple House seats in the state for the first time in 26 years.
November 8, 2022 local time, Los Angeles, United States, on the polling day of the US midterm elections, US Vice President Harris and Los Angeles mayoral candidate Bass bought cookies in a restaurant and interacted with the public. Photo/IC photo
The race in the Senate is more anxious than in the House of Representatives
The Senate seats are now divided equally between the two parties, and the majority predicts that it will not be possible to tell the winner until the last minute. President Biden even said on the 7th that after the midterm elections, the Democratic Party will have majority control of the Senate.
Since control of the Senate can be won by just one more seat, a showdown in a handful of swing states will determine the fate of the Senate. According to U.S. political analysts, these states are mainly Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Republican Senate Campaign Committee Chairman Senator Rick Scott of Florida predicted that Republicans are likely to win 52 seats in the Senate. Republican National Committee Chair Lorna McDaniel is also confident that Republicans control the Senate. McDaniel is the niece of Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential candidate in the United States, and was nominated for the position by then-President Donald Trump in December 2016.
Republican confidence comes from the above-mentioned swing states, and even New York State has seen a situation of anxious candidates from both parties. Democrats have long controlled New York State. However, in the latest round, Kathy Hochu, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, seemed to be unable to play against the post-80s Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin. Lee Zelding said several times before the election that the Democratic state of New York had failed to reduce crime.
The Crystal Ball, an influential prediction newsletter in various U.S. elections, predicts that the key swing states that ultimately affect whether the two parties control the Senate are Georgia and Nevada. Currently, Georgia's Republican candidate Herschel Walker has 1.6 percentage points more support than the incumbent Democratic senator.
And in Nevada, Democratic incumbent Senator Catherine Masto faced off against Republican Adam Laxalter. This state is the most anxious about the election. Polls in late October showed both at 47 percent. Masto was the first Latino woman to be elected to the Senate in 2016. The state's Latino voters make up one-fifth. Masto's campaign strategy was also to win more votes for Latino women.
However, Masto faces two challenges: low turnout among Latinos, especially among registered Democratic voters than registered Republicans; Second, Latinos are equally concerned about economic issues. Compared to economic concerns and inflation concerns among Latinos, Democrats advocate legalizing abortion in second place. On economic issues, the Democratic administration has underperformed, and voters have leaned toward the Republican Party.
Interestingly, on American political betting sites, Adam Laxalter is a high-odds favorite in the Senate race. 63% bet on Laxalte to beat Catherine Masto. From 2015 to 2019, Laxalter served as the 33rd Nevada attorney general.
Another factor mentioned by the US media that is unfavorable to the Democratic Party is that President Biden's approval rating has fallen to a record low, dragging down the Democrats' election, especially this will turn the swing states towards the Republican Party.
Republicans control the Senate's influence on foreign policy
Winning a majority in the House or Senate means having more power.
The 2022 midterm elections directly affect which party controls Congress and have far-reaching implications for the direction of the United States over the next two years. If the Republican Party controls the two houses, it means that the US House of Representatives is separated, and Biden will become a weak president, and many of the legislative proposals proposed by his administration will be blocked or modified. The way the Senate and the House of Representatives operate around various bills will also change greatly, and the Biden administration will need to spend more political resources to game. Some relatively large legislation, such as the chip bill against China, is unlikely to pass.
Typically, the main focus of the US midterm elections is domestic issues, but the current link between US domestic and foreign affairs is so close that it can be said to be unprecedented in decades. For example, over the past decade, both parties in the United States have worked to better serve the rebuilding of America's middle class, and Biden has even named his foreign policy Middle-Class Foreign Policy.
If the Biden administration fails to control the two chambers, it will not only affect personnel issues in key positions, but also many policy propositions can only remain in words and cannot be translated into legal implementation. In addition, if the Republican Party gains a majority by playing the economic card, especially by appealing to inflation, it will also greatly affect the Biden administration's economic policy and may continue to prompt the Fed to continue raising interest rates to reduce inflation.
In addition, Republican control of both houses will also affect U.S. climate and energy policy. Republicans do not support emissions reductions, nor do they support the policy of imposing a windfall tax on oil companies advocated by Biden, and call for increased domestic fossil energy extraction, which will directly benefit US oil and gas companies.
Kevin McCarthy, who may take office as the next Republican House Speaker in January 2023, said in an interview with the media that he will use the Republican control of the House of Representatives to work on addressing inflation, border security and rising crime. The senior Republican lawmaker also said Congress would conduct extensive investigations into some of the Biden administration's foreign policy, including major military actions such as the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan last August. Even, he raised the possibility of promoting the impeachment of President Biden.
After the Republican Party controls both houses, it is very likely that what will happen is to continue to move towards isolationism, and even greatly affect the Biden administration's military aid to Ukraine, and will also affect the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" that the Biden administration is pushing.
There is also a concern that the results of the midterm elections will affect the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Trump may return strongly. For now, Trump is still the Republican favorite's favorite to run in the 2024 election. Because Trump did not value U.S. allies in his first term, if Trump is elected president of the United States in 2024, the Biden administration's proud strategy of using alliances against China will fail.
However, there are also opinions that Republican lawmakers have a tougher position on China's Taiwan issue than the Democratic Party, and Republican control of the two houses may lead to further tension in the Taiwan Strait.
Contributing Writer/Zhong Feiteng (Research Fellow, Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Editor/Curry
Proofreader/Wu Xingfa