November 7, 2022 local time, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, people mail ballots. The images in this article are all surging image images
At about 6 a.m. local time on November 8 (19 o'clock Beijing time), the battle for the midterm elections in the United States officially began. Since many states stipulate that mail-in votes can only be counted on polling day, the final results of the midterm election will not be released on the 8th, or even days or weeks.
On the last weekend before Final Election Day, U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump made their final calls to voters in New York and Florida, respectively. The affiliation of the House and Senate will determine the voice and policy impetus of both parties over the next two years, and neither side can let their guard down in the final stages of the campaign.
According to the New York Times, congressional candidates are sprinting nationwide, Republicans believe they will win control of the House of Representatives, and including the Senate is not an elusive goal. And the headwinds are on the side of Democrats: Voters have shown resistance to continued Democratic control of both houses of Congress, driven by record inflation, rising crime and concerns about American democracy.
On November 6, Biden ran for New York Governor Kathy Hochul in Yonkers.
Public opinion is extreme, and the election situation is anxious
Biden ran for New York Governor Kathy Hochul in Yonkers on November 6, where Biden won 80 percent of the vote in the 2020 presidential election, but is facing serious challenges when he steps back into that district two years later. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump addressed supporters in Miami amid signals that Republicans were poised to upend votes in Florida's most populous city and county for the first time in 20 years.
At a rally at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, New York, Biden described Midterm Election Day and the upcoming 2024 presidential election as an "inflection point" for the next 20 years. Voters, he said, will have a clear choice between two "fundamentally different visions of America."
Meanwhile, in his 90-minute speech, Trump blasted Democrats for their weakness on criminal behavior, reiterating his doubts about fraud in the 2020 presidential election and claiming he had inspired Hispanic — especially in Florida — voters to turn to the Republican Party. "We need a massive landslide victory that the radical left can't manipulate or steal the election results." In his speech, Trump called for, "We want to take America back." ”
Chen Jiajun, an assistant researcher at the Shanghai Institute of American Studies, pointed out to The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that the ideologies of both parties have shown a trend of extremism and conspired with the media to form a "huge vortex of public opinion."
"Republican voters are on the rise of populism and authoritarianism, right-wing forces are slowly being trapped by public opinion, and conservatism is intensifying. Democratic voters, on the other hand, favor secularism, including rejuvenation and liberalization. As a result, the new democrats are mostly left-wing and less moderate. ”
Chen Jiajun said that at the same time, the Democratic Party occupies more mainstream media in the United States, and can take the initiative to shape abortion, gun control, climate change and other issues to drive voters. On the other hand, although the Republican Party is only supported by Fox News and some niche radio stations, these right-wing media have great influence among Republican voters, so the Republican Party will also take advantage of the rebellion of the underclass voters against the Democratic elite, amplify the shortcomings of the ruling party through public opinion, hype up inflation issues, conspiracy theories such as the new crown epidemic and election fraud, and resonate with voters. And Musk, who just acquired Twitter, added a fire to this. On the eve of polling day, Musk posted a call on independent voters to support the Republican Party.
The central question facing Democrats today is whether they can overcome historical headwinds in the post-inflationary post-pandemic era following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Since 1934, nearly every president has lost a seat in Congress in the first midterm elections of his or her term. Typically, voters punish the ruling party for poor economic conditions, and the Republican Party naturally gains a head start.
Notably, voters are putting fiscal concerns ahead of concerns about democracy or retaining abortion rights. In the formerly liberal-biased northeastern U.S. suburbs to western states, Republican strategists, lawmakers and officials say they have the confidence to flip much of the country and extend their campaign advantage in the southern and Rust Belt states, which have been fertile ground for Republicans for much of the past decade. There are also early signs that the key voter groups that drove Democratic victory in the 2018 midterm and 2020 presidential elections — moderate suburban white women and Latino voters — are tilting toward Republican candidates.
And in some high-profile swing states, the competition between the two parties for candidates has also become more "extreme." Pennsylvania's Democratic radical candidate John Fetterman, Republican candidate Mehmet Oz and six other candidates will contest Pennsylvania's November 8 U.S. Senate election. Feitman campaigned around marijuana legalization, gun control and abortion rights, while Oz's campaign slogan was "putting Americans First." Although Oz has Trump's support, the media still suspects that he is not a conservative.
On the Republican side in Nevada, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, a loyal MAGA ("America First") activist, has steadily led the party since announcing his candidacy, won Trump's endorsement, and focused his campaign on economic issues. In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson is also the extreme MAGA Republican candidate. On the Democratic side, radical candidate Mandela Barnes has been a primary frontrunner since she ran for election. Johnson focused his campaign on inflation and labeled Barnes "dangerously liberal" and "different," while Barnes cast himself as a "middle class first" candidate.
Liz, who works for a US pollster, told The Paper that "the two years of Biden's administration were too bumpy, the post-epidemic economic recovery first led to inflation, and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict made the Biden administration put most of its energy into the diplomatic field, and the consequent price surge caused voters to rebound emotionally." The anti-conservative sentiment in favor of the Democratic Party caused by the overthrow of Roe v. Wade has been diluted, and people are still more concerned about the food on the table today and the gas bills tomorrow. ”
On November 7, 2022 local time, Ohio, USA, Trump canvassed for the Republican candidate.
The mutual achievement of Trump and the establishment
In this midterm election, former President Trump's media exposure is even comparable to that of current President Biden. On the evening of November 7, local time, Trump announced on the eve of the midterm elections that he would announce major news on November 15, local time. It may not be difficult to guess that he previously revealed on the campaign trail that he may officially announce his participation in the 2024 presidential election in November, which Chen Jiajun said is an alliance of interests formed by Trump and the Republican establishment, which was formed as early as 2017 and played an important role in this midterm election.
On the one hand, Trump needs Republican protection and support. If the Democratic Party remains in power, investigations such as the leaked documents against Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate will continue to advance. So Trump hopes that the Republican Party will control the House of Representatives, resist the influence on his future career, and gain support in Congress to pave the way for the 2024 election.
Republicans, on the other hand, are eager to get votes from Trump supporters. The Republican Party hopes to use Trump's power to inspire voter enthusiasm and help the party's candidates win elections in swing states such as Arizona and Ohio and gain control of Congress to meet the party's political demands such as banning abortion and preventing Biden's nomination from being passed by the Supreme Court justice.
Overall, Trump's need for the Republican Party outweighs the Republican demand for him. Most of the candidates Trump supports are right-wing or ideologically extreme, and there are also establishment forces behind these candidates. Although Trump's party support far exceeds that of his potential rival, Florida Governor DeSantis, if the Republican Party loses the midterm elections, the establishment is more likely to distance itself from Trump and turn to DeSantis. Conversely, the establishment may strengthen cooperation with Trump, and the likelihood of Trump running or winning the party's nomination in 2024 will increase, and Trump will appropriately cater to the ideas or practices of the establishment.
Trump's impact on this election is also reflected in the change in the way voters vote, and the chaos after the 2020 presidential election has caused many voters to question the election mechanism, which has also injected a lot of uncertainty into the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections.
According to Tom Bonier, CEO of Target Smart, which analyzes U.S. political data, the number of votes is now higher than 30 million, more than the total number of votes cast in the 2018 midterm elections, and the Democratic Party now has an 11-point advantage nationwide, even better than the 2018 result. But Republican candidates followed Trump's lead in being skeptical of mail-in voting and encouraging voters to cast their ballots in person on Election Day. As a result, these early Democratic leads could be drowned out by Republican votes on Election Day.
Justin, a newcomer to the United States, told The Paper that he would go to the scene to vote because "there is no guarantee for voting by mail", and said that such thoughts are very common around him. "There's not much enthusiasm for the election, and while it's convenient to mail your ballot, you can't guarantee that your ballot won't be tampered with — as long as the result isn't hand-submitted, you don't know what will happen in the process." You can't trust Democratic politicians. ”
It can be seen that no matter how loudly Democrats speak, election fraud theory has become part of the perception of some voters, and the lack of Republican early voting is destined to fail to generate forward-looking forecasts, which also adds another suspense to the midterm elections.