On October 30, local time, the second round of voting in Brazil's general election is about to be held, because no candidate won more than half of the votes in the first round of voting in early October, the two candidates with the most votes, former President Lula and current President Bolsonaro, entered the second round of tiebreaker voting (that is, the final round of voting), who will win? The suspense is about to be revealed.
According to the British "Guardian", Reuters, and Bloomberg news, Lula and Bolsonaro held their last TV debate on the evening of the 28th local time, and the two still attacked each other-for-tat. Lula accused Bolsonaro of his ineffective governance, and Bolsonaro continued to talk about Lula's "corruption issues."
Despite the heated debate, polls show that the debate does not materially affect the outcome of the election, with more than 90 percent of voters already determined who to vote for, and only a fraction of voters still hesitating.
Pre-election polls by several institutions now show Lula still leading Bolsonaro by 52% to 48%, but the lead has fallen from 6 percentage points a few days ago. While Lula is still slightly favored, Bolsonaro is also catching up, with hopes of a comeback, and both still have the possibility of winning.
The media believe that this election will be the most important in Brazil in nearly 40 years, and the results of the election may be more rigid than the 2014 election. According to the schedule, the second round of voting in the Brazilian general election will officially open on October 30, local time.
On October 28, local time, before the second round of voting in Brazil's presidential election, Lula and Bolsonaro held a televised debate. The picture is from the surging image
The two attacked and accused each other, and the scene was tense
On the evening of the 28th, Lula and Bolsonaro held the last TV debate before the second round of voting in the general election on Globo TV.
During the debate, Lula accused Bolsonaro of mishandling the coronavirus pandemic, which killed nearly 700,000 Brazilians, and the 77-year-old leftist also slammed Bolsonaro for providing weapons for organized crime by relaxing gun laws, causing Brazil's international reputation to be damaged. Incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro has repeatedly described Lula as a "liar," highlighting the "corruption scandal" that the former president was involved in during his tenure.
That evening, both candidates repeatedly referred to Lula's economic situation during his two presidential terms from 2003 to 2010, when high commodity prices helped boost Brazil's economy and eradicate poverty. In response, Lula vowed to revive Brazil's prosperity, while Bolsonaro said his social programs were more effective for now.
Data map: On October 16, local time, Lula and Bolsonaro participated in a TV debate. The picture is from the surging image
Bloomberg analysis, which pays attention to financial issues, pointed out that Lula hopes that state-owned enterprises will play a more active role in the economy and carry out serious reforms to the tax system; Bolsonaro favored privatization and relatively modest tax reform.
The report also pointed out that the last televised debate between the two seems to be fierce, but it is unlikely to lead to a major change in the election situation. Polls show that more than 90 percent of people are now determined to vote for, leaving only a small percentage of voters still wavering.
The polls are stale, and either side may win
Reuters reported that on the 29th after the debate, a number of polls showed that the tension of the Brazilian presidential election had reached the highest before the vote, with Lula on the left still maintaining a slight advantage, while Bolsonaro on the right had caught up with the other party significantly.
Data from pollsters Datafolha and Quaest both show 52 percent of valid votes in their models for Lula and 48 percent for Bolsonaro, suggesting that Lula's lead has dropped from 6 percentage points three days ago, and Bolsonaro's hopes of a comeback win are growing. Another pollster, MDA, even showed Lula's lead slipping to just 2 percentage points.
Lula's lead over Bolsonaro has narrowed to 6 percentage points Pictured from The Guardian
In addition, data from pollsters IPEC and Atlas Intel showed that Lula's lead was "stable and slightly wider." The IPEC said Lula's valid vote approval was 54 percent ahead of Bolsonaro, while AtlasIntel, which made the most accurate poll on the first round of voting, said Lula's lead stood at 7 percentage points.
Reuters combined most polls to say that Lula is still slightly favored and expected to win his third presidential term, which also marks a clear rebound in his personal political influence after his corruption and money laundering charges were cleared by the courts. However, it should not be ignored that Bolsonaro's support in the first round of voting on October 2 exceeded previous expectations, and the election situation was boosted, so analysts believe that the victory of the election can be attributed to either side.
The Guardian pointed out that this year's Brazilian election is not only a very important election for the country, but also has a far-reaching impact on issues such as the Amazon rainforest region and global climate change. This year's election is widely regarded as the most important since Brazil ended its 21-year military dictatorship in 1985, but as things stand, Brazil is divided, with about half of the electorate opposing incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and nearly the same percentage opposing former President Lula.
Screenshot of the Guardian report
Thomas Traumann, a political analyst from Rio de Janeiro, predicts that the outcome of this election will be even more sluggish than the 2014 election. At the time, Labour candidate Rousseff defeated her rival Neves by 51.6% to 48.4%, with a vote margin of 3.45 million votes. Neves' party has since contested the election results, but without success.
Lula vs Bolsonaro: Left and right
As two giants of contemporary Brazilian politics, Bolsonaro and Lula are diametrically opposed. Antonio Lavareda, head of Brazilian pollster Ipespe, described it as "two high-profile figures, two of the most heavyweight and unique populist leaders in Brazilian politics over the past 20 years." ”
The 67-year-old Bolsonaro has been called "tropical Trump", representing the conservative Liberal Party for re-election, and some US media have called him a "domineering nationalist".
On September 28, local time, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, Brazilian President Bolsonaro held a campaign rally. The picture is from the surging image
At the heart of his campaign and re-election plans are what he calls the right to freedom: freedom of speech, freedom to live and the freedom to grow for the future and increase the use of the nation's natural resources, including mining and other agribusiness. Bolsonaro's job creation strategy is based on industrial investment, especially in the technology sector. The former paratrooper also supports expanding opportunities for citizens to own guns for self-defense.
However, Bolsonaro's performance in his first term could be a negative factor. He has been widely criticized both inside and outside Brazil for his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 685,000 people, and for a surge in deforestation in Brazil's Amazon during his tenure.
Lula, a 76-year-old Labor Party former metalworking worker, served two terms as Brazil's president since 2003. The US media called it "one of the most respected leftist politicians in Latin America."
On October 1, local time, São Paulo, Brazil, the candidate of the Brazilian Workers' Party and former President Lula delivered a speech. The picture is from the surging image
During the campaign, Lula mostly emphasized the removal of Bolsonaro, focusing on the achievements of his previous term. He left office with 90 percent approval ratings, lifting tens of millions of Brazilians out of extreme poverty through the "Family Allowance" program.
However, he must also overcome voter skepticism. In an investigation into state-owned Petrobras, Lula was convicted in 2017 of corruption and money laundering, though he has consistently called himself innocent. Less than two years after serving his sentence, a Supreme Court justice annulled Lula's conviction in March 2021, clearing the way for his sixth presidential bid.
"Tropical Trump" campaign, Trump really spoke
In this fierce competition, both Bolsonaro and Lula are using Twitter, video sites, televised debates and mass political rallies to show their positions and attack each other at every turn. And the violent rhetoric of their supporters has made many voters even more terrified of what is coming.
In recent days, Lula's allies have expressed cautious optimism about a general election victory. "I have firm hopes that we will win, but there is also anxiety. It was one of the most important elections in Brazilian history. Cristiano Silveira, a lawmaker from the same political party as Lula, said.
Bolsonaro's supporters insist they will win. In their view, the polls before the first round of voting underestimated Bolsonaro's approval ratings, and although Lula came in first place with 48.4 percent of the vote, Bolsonaro fared far better than expected, garnering 43.2 percent of the vote, more than expected 36 percent or 37 percent.
The streets of Brazil before the elections
It is worth mentioning that during the campaign, without showing evidence, "Trump of the Tropics" Bolsonaro has begun to argue that the electronic voting system may be manipulated, and even said that the system has been tampered with in the past. But US media said that since 1996, there has been no record of fraud on Brazilian electronic ballots.
At the end of June this year, Bolsonaro also indirectly called out the United States in an interview with Fox News in the United States. If the left wins the Brazilian election in October, he said, they will never step down and South America will become completely red, effectively isolating the United States.
On the 28th, Bolsonaro's main international ally, former US President Trump, also began to talk about the Brazilian election, urging Brazilians to refuse to vote for Lula, and calling Lula "a radical left-wing madman" who will soon destroy Brazil. During the televised debate that night, Bolsonaro appeared to reveal a commitment to respect the election results, saying that "the one with the most votes will win."
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