[Text/Observer Network Wang Hui, Liu Qian, Zhang Jingjuan Editor/Feng Xue] Without the slightest precaution or a trace of concern, another British prime minister resigned.
Truss, the 56th prime minister of the United Kingdom, served 45 days, and is by far the most "short-lived" prime minister in British history.
His masterpiece "Mini Budget" triggered a sharp shock in the British financial market, bringing about a three-kill situation of "stock and bond exchange", single-handedly evaporating at least 500 billion US dollars in the British stock and bond market in a month and a half.
Truss's resignation has added another "horse catch" plot to the ups and downs of British politics. Alan McGuinness, editor of Sky News UK, who just became a dad this year, tweeted:
"My son's life has been through 4 Chancellors of the Exchequer, 3 Home Secretaries, 2 Prime Ministers and 2 Monarchs. My son is 4 months old. ”
It's so hard for the British people.
Their prime minister apologized just a few days ago for her mistakes in setting economic policy, but refused to resign, claiming that she was "a fighter and not a light-talker"...
Why was resignation so caught off guard?
"I've never seen anything like this," Nick, the BBC's chief political correspondent, couldn't help but lament, saying it was "lightning speed".
Yin Zhiguang, a professor at the Department of International Politics at Fudan University's School of International Relations and Public Affairs, told Observer.com that there is a precedent for such a thing. A few days before his resignation, Johnson also strongly stated that he could not resign. But he, like Truss, resigned soon after talking to the chairman of the 1922 Committee, a group of Conservative MPs in the House of Commons. ”
Yin believes that the main reason for Truss's sudden ouster is the Conservative Party internal factor, explaining:
After Brexit, the Conservative Party itself faced an ideological crisis, and the party was divided into many small fragments, some supported "Brexit", some supported Remain, some supported social welfare policies, and some supported tax cuts. The result of a radical split is a loss of consensus, making it difficult to produce a force within the party that can reconcile the different conflicts of interest. In the end, the Conservatives chose a relatively weak leader like Truss in the foreground. In this way, the struggle of the different forces behind it can continue in a familiar way.
As a result, the Conservative leader has a lot of constraints in the government, not only to balance the various factions, but also to consider those backbenchers who do not win cabinet seats. And the "1922 Committee" represented this kind of people, and once they began to "rebel", the position of leader of the Conservative Party could not sit still.
"Judging from Truss's political experience, the process of competing for a post and the ability she has shown, she came to power with the support of a certain force within the Conservative Party, and the political foundation of the party is not stable." Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, said.
He believes that after Truss's policy mistakes, it is reasonable for the Conservative Party to abandon her from the perspective of maintaining her ruling position. "Just like Truss gave up Kovoten before to save his reputation."
On October 14, local time, after the financial turmoil and strong criticism caused by radical economic policies, in order to retain the position of prime minister, Truss announced the dismissal of his staunch ally and finance minister Kwarten.
On October 20, local time, Truss issued a resignation statement, announcing his resignation as the leader of the British Conservative Party and the post of British Prime Minister. Source: The Paper
Next stick, who will take it?
The latest report released by the British polling company YouGov on October 18 showed that Truss's support among the British public has fallen to 10%, and 55% of the British Conservative Party members surveyed want Truss to resign.
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson received the highest support (32%), followed by former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (23%) and Defense Secretary Wallace (10%).
However, judging from the process of selecting the next prime minister, it seems that it has little to do with public opinion.
At present, the Conservative Party has opened the nomination of a new party leader and prime minister, and the nomination will close at 14:00 BST on October 24.
To run, candidates need at least 100 Conservative MPs to nominate. That's far higher than the last campaign, when only 20 nominations were needed. As the Conservative Party currently has 357 MPs, only a maximum of three candidates can be nominated.
If only one person reaches the 100-vote threshold, he will become the next leader of the Conservative Party and then the new prime minister, without the need for the next stage of competition.
If there are 3 candidates, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated directly. Conservative MPs will vote for the remaining two candidates between 18.30pm and 20.30pm daylight saving time (i.e. indicating the preference of MPs), with results coming out at 21pm on the same day.
If no one withdraws after the indicative vote, all Conservative Party members will vote online to determine the winner. Before the voting of party members closes, the two candidates are expected to participate in a televised debate, the winner of which will be selected on October 28.
Source: BBC
"For the Conservative Party, the ideal outcome is that only one candidate meets the requirements, so that there is no need to vote and it takes the least time," Yin said, preferably like Theresa May did when she came to power, when everyone else was eliminated, only her was the only candidate, and then it was logical to become prime minister.
However, at present, in theory, everything is possible, and the voices of Johnson and Sunak seem to be higher.
Cui Hongjian believes that Sunak should be the most suitable candidate.
"One of the direct reasons for Truss's ouster was her mistakes in economic policy. Therefore, in terms of understanding economic policy and problem-solving ability, Sunak is well suited to succeed Truss and solve the mess she has left behind," Cui Hongjian explained, but in terms of political operations, Sunak also has many shortcomings that his opponents can exploit.
"Now, whether it's the Conservative Party or British politics, the biggest problem is: politicians who are more able to cater and please the people seem to be more marketable, politicians with technocratic backgrounds like Sunak are not likable, and he himself has some so-called problems criticized by traditional British politics, such as his immigrant descent background."
Cui Hongjian believes that the next step is to see how the Conservative Party balances, and to see to what extent Conservative MPs can truly consider the interests of the Conservative Party or the United Kingdom, rather than being influenced by political factions.
Yin Zhiguang also believes that the only more likely and conservative choice at present is Sunak. But he also stressed that the most important thing for the Conservatives going forward is the general election.
Right now, the Conservative Party's support is declining.
According to the European edition of the Politico news network, the latest poll on October 20 showed that the support of the Conservative Party among the British public fell to 21%, while the opposition Labour Party rose to 53%.
Therefore, for the next prime minister, he/she "needs to reverse the disappointment of the people, including Conservative Party members, with the Conservative elite as soon as possible, and restore the public's confidence in the Conservative Party." This successor may aim to ensure that the Conservatives can govern smoothly until the 2024 elections, but judging by the successive setbacks of Johnson and Truss, it will be difficult to complete this task. Cui Hongjian analyzed.
Sunak at a campaign rally Source: The Paper
The Conservative Party's frequent "change of manager" is like drinking to quench its thirst
Since 2016, four Conservative prime ministers have resigned under pressure from the party, and none of them has completed their terms: Cameron, Theresa May, Johnson and Truss.
In the process of constantly "changing managers", although the Conservative Party has maintained its ruling position, its support in British society has continued to decline due to continuous policy mistakes, which seems to have become the norm.
Cui Hongjian believes that this time in deciding to keep Truss, the Conservative Party is actually making a trade-off between two evils: if Truss continues to stay in office, from the current point of view, she will obviously cause more damage to the Conservative Party than giving up her.
"The Conservative Party is constantly shifting and shirking some political responsibilities through the change of leaders within the party, which can help it continue to gain a ruling position in the short term, but I think in the long run, it has a little taste of drinking and quenching thirst."
Cui Hongjian stressed that if the Conservative Party continues to act this way, the British people will increasingly question the effectiveness of the current political system. This will have an increasing negative impact not only on the Conservative Party, but also on British politics itself.
"Originally, Britain felt that its political system was superior, but now that even the British themselves are losing confidence, then the credibility of [British politics] abroad does not exist." Yin Zhiguang said.
From left to right: Cameron, Theresa May, Johnson, Truss
It is worth noting that after Truss' resignation, the leader of the British opposition Labour Party, Starmer, demanded that elections be held immediately "now".
However, both scholars believe that a new general election in the United Kingdom is unlikely.
"Under the current circumstances, if you want to start the process of early elections, you still have to pass the parliamentary hurdle. If the Conservatives were to trade the unity of the majority of MPs by replacing Truss, Labour's offensive to try to get a snap election could be unraveled. Cui Hongjian said.
Britain is being Italianized?
Just hours before Truss announced his resignation, The Economist, a well-known British weekly, painted the image of "Centurion Truss (Ancient Rome) Truss" holding a fork of pasta and a pizza shield on the cover of its latest issue.
The headline above the cover reads "Welcome to Britaly". The article compares political instability, slow economic growth, and blind adherence to the bond market, saying that more than two years after formal Brexit, Britain is becoming more and more like Italy, the "weakest link of the EU".
Cover image of the latest issue of The Economist
"In a sense, Italy has come to the 'forefront' in Europe politically, showing political instability, frequent changes of government, and the rapid rise of right-wing populist forces," Cui said, but the starting point and principles of the design of the British political system are still different from those of Italy.
"So far, the UK has basically maintained a two-party rotating party structure, which will avoid the fragmentation of parties with multiple parties and continuous political disputes like in Italy in the short term."
"The situation in Britain may be a little more complicated," though, noting that there are signs of factionalism and instability within the Conservative Party, a fragmented approach within a party, such as the complex tussle between pro-Truss factions and anti-Truss.
"As a result, the political party landscape in the UK may look a little more stable than in Italy, but the changes taking place within it are more subtle and complex, and the damage to the political system and policy implementation may be even more severe." Cui Hongjian analyzed.
Yin Zhiguang said that this attitude of self-deprecation and not forgetting to pull others on the back is very much in line with the taste of the British conservative cultural elite represented by The Economist.
He believes that to say that the British political scene has "degenerated" into Italy is still a bit of an avoidance of the important and the importance of turning the big things into a small matter. In fact, the chaos in British politics today reflects the deeper crisis facing the development of parliamentary democracy.
"As a defeated country in World War II, Italy, under the supervision of the allies, specially designed a political system with extremely decentralized power, with president-prime minister-parliamentary parties-opposition parties balancing each other. Its fundamental purpose was to prevent a figure like Mussolini from reappearing. For a long time, this institutional design was seen as an excellent example of a parliamentary democratic republic preventing centralization. ”
Yin Zhiguang said that today, Italy continues to have a short-lived government, a horse-running ruling party or various political parties across the country "today alliance, tomorrow confrontation", but in the eyes of political analysts, these last represent the "success" of parliamentary politics and republican government.
"And the farce created by the British Conservative Party at the moment is the result of the fragmentation of interest units. Compared to Italy, the current situation in the UK reflects the deep-seated crisis of parliamentary democracy in the new era. ”
"Chaos in Britain means a continued decline in hard and soft power across the West"
At present, Britain is facing a complicated situation where the queen has died, two prime ministers have resigned, and Scotland and Northern Ireland are increasingly seeking "independence".
In this regard, Cui Hongjian said that when the "Brexit" was started, the Conservative Party once wanted to help the United Kingdom build a greater confidence, and the United Kingdom should continue to maintain its status as a world power.
"But in contrast to such rhetoric, the British government's inability to solve the real problems at hand is the most impressive scenario presented by the British government."
In the future, no matter who is in power, the British government must start from solving practical problems, if it just blindly uses "lofty goals" to fool the people without solving problems in a down-to-earth manner, it will only make the people more disappointed and disgusted. Cui Hongjian believes that in the context of Brexit contradictions and intensified internal and external challenges, the UK is in a stage of losing the direction of development, and political disorder and policy mistakes will further aggravate this confusion.
Queen Elizabeth II
Perhaps the most unfortunate thing for Britain is that its impact on the world is becoming smaller and smaller.
"Britain thinks it still has influence on the world, such as soft power such as political system, language and culture," Cui said, but Cui believes that the recent political turmoil in the UK shows that Britain can provide the world with more outdated ideas and negative experiences in the political field.
"If there is a relatively long-term sustained weakening of Britain's national strength, it will undoubtedly affect the dominance of the so-called order by the entire West."
"We know that Britain has supported and cooperated with the United States in terms of hard power and soft power, including the impact on Europe. If Britain continues in a relatively confused and chaotic state, it actually means that the West as a whole continues to decline in both soft and hard power. Cui Hongjian analyzed.
Yin Zhiguang believes that Britain's future development is not particularly optimistic, and can only follow the path of 20 years after World War II, close to the United States, and be a small follower of the United States, in order to get a share of the global competition.
(Fang also contributed to this article)