British politics has once again ushered in an "eye-popping" day.
On October 20, local time, British Prime Minister Elizabeth Truss issued a resignation statement, announcing her resignation from the post of leader of the British Conservative Party, which means that she automatically stepped down as British Prime Minister. The 47-year-old Truss became Britain's shortest-serving prime minister, just 45 days after her inauguration on September 6.
In her statement, Truss said she could not deliver on her Conservative campaign promises given the current economic and international situation. However, she will remain prime minister until the New Party prefers her. According to reports, the new prime minister will be announced next Friday, October 28, and it may be announced as early as next Monday.
However, analysts believe that whoever the new prime minister is, it will be difficult to prevent this "rout". After Truss turned away from 10 Downing Street, what was left was an economic crisis that had wiped Britain out of thin air by $500 billion and a broken political party.
Li Hao, a professor at the School of International Relations of Sichuan University, also said in an interview with Red Star News that due to the superimposed impact of the international environment and domestic environmental factors, the various contradictions that the United Kingdom is facing in the short term are obvious, and no matter who the new prime minister is, it is very difficult to solve these problems.
↑ On October 20, local time, British Prime Minister Elizabeth Truss issued a resignation statement
Truss's "mess" is not easy to clean up
It's the same for whoever takes office
According to real-time data from the British media, former finance minister Sunak, who previously lost to Truss, has 21 supports, temporarily ahead of former Prime Minister Johnson (19) and former Defense Secretary Mordaunt (6).
However, the arrival of a new prime minister does not mean that the crisis is over. Some reports conclude that if yesterday's British politics was chaotic, the chaos will continue to deepen in the future. The crises and challenges mentioned by Truss in her resignation speech did not disappear with her departure, and the new prime minister will undoubtedly have to clean up the "mess" she left behind when he takes office.
Li Hao told Red Star News that after the new prime minister took office, the most difficult issue was undoubtedly economic policy. According to previous reports, in just 45 days of Truss's reign, the British stock and bond market has been severely reduced, losing at least $500 billion, the pound has also suffered the largest decline in 37 years, and inflation has remained high. Although ridiculed for "not having a long shelf life of lettuce", the "destructive power" is very amazing.
According to reports, after Truss announced his resignation, the pound rose against the dollar, and the cost of government borrowing also fell. One analyst said investors were "relieved" by the news, despite the many uncertainties remaining. Tony Dank, head of the business lobby CBI, said the "political drama" of recent weeks had undermined people, businesses, markets and global investors' confidence in the UK and that "[the next prime minister] needs to come up with a credible medium-term fiscal plan as soon as possible, as well as a long-term growth plan." ”
However, Li Hao believes that the thorny problems facing the UK are not unique to a certain government, but the combination of the global economic environment and the small environment of the British domestic economy. He said that the British economy itself has faced more challenges in recent years, coupled with the impact of the new crown epidemic, inflationary pressure is greater, and Britain's own welfare policies have led to weak pressure capacity.
↑ As of September 28, Truss had cost Britain $500 billion in office
"Many contradictions in the UK are now gathered together, of course, many are global contradictions, whether it is the problems caused by Brexit, that is, the contradictions in the European economy, or the global inflation problem caused by the epidemic, these have actually gathered in the UK in a short period of time." Li Hao said that as a result, the British government is less likely to reverse some major policies in the short term. Coupled with the UK's parliamentary cabinet system, there is no doubt that the government wants to make major economic policy adjustments. On the one hand, it is mainly constrained by the parliament, and on the other hand, there are obvious differences within the party. Therefore, no matter who the next British prime minister is, the question he will face when he takes office will be the same: whether he can provide an economic solution that is acceptable to the current state of British society, and whether he can bridge political differences.
Political turmoil in the UK "or will continue until the 2024 general election"?
Expert: This is the price the Conservatives need to pay
Regarding the "chaos" of British politics, British political journalist Alan McGuinness posted: "My son has gone through four chancellors, three home secretaries, two prime ministers (soon a third) and two monarchs, and he is four months old. ”
Some analysts also pointed out that for a party trying to convince the public that it is capable of leading the UK, four months to three prime ministers, endless infighting, and the growing cost-of-living crisis are undoubtedly the worst propaganda advertisements. That's why Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee of the British Conservative Party, said a new prime minister would be quickly elected within a week.
Brady said on the 20th that unlike the last two-month election, the new prime minister will be elected next Friday. Conservative MPs will vote for 1-3 candidates next Monday, each requiring a nomination of at least 100 Conservative MPs, followed by a ballot on Thursday. If only one candidate breaks through on Monday, he will automatically become the new Conservative leader and prime minister next Monday.
There is no doubt that the Conservative Party wants to maintain continuity in power with a quick victory, trying to prove to the public that the party is still capable of governing.
Immediately after Truss announced his resignation, the opposition Labour Party called for an early general election. The party's leader, Kiel Starmer, said: "After 12 years of defeat for the Conservative Party, the British people deserve better. "Current polls show Labour consistently leading the Conservatives by 20 to 30 percentage points and could expect a landslide victory if an early general election is held.
↑ Labour leader Kiel Starmer
However, there is no indication that an early general election will be held in the UK. Li Hao told Red Star News that the rapid fall of the cabinet and the resignation of the prime minister are more of a disagreement within the Conservative Party, which has not yet surpassed the political party and turned into an early election. But there are also reports of four successive prime ministers in six years, leaving the Conservatives with "despair".
Some senior MPs have revealed that they believe the Conservatives have little chance of winning the next election, and that the Conservatives' latest "game drama" is not aimed at winning the election, but at trying to "limit losses". The UK's next national general election will reportedly be held in 2024 and no later than January 2025. "The behemoths of British politics are likely to continue to fight each other for the foreseeable future". Considering the current state of the UK, this is undoubtedly bad news for the British people.
Li Hao also said that the political turmoil in the UK "may continue until the next general election", but "the intensity is difficult to say". He believes that the current problems facing the UK are already in front of us, and dealing with these problems requires some relatively important economic policies. Therefore, it is unlikely that a quick adjustment will be in place, and it will be a gradual, gradual adjustment process. As the Conservatives begin to find a viable path, it will certainly need to come at the cost of a period of political turmoil.
"In this process, the Conservative Party is bound to pay a high time cost, socio-economic cost, and Truss's resignation is actually a step in the struggle and compromise within the party." He explains, "Of course, every time this more brutal way of fighting and compromise, the political price paid by the Conservatives themselves is also greater. ”
However, he also pointed out that the current environment has certain challenges for the Conservative Party, but there are also certain favorable factors, especially the international situation is relatively grim. "The Conservative Party has a particular influence on these issues as international and domestic security issues rise, and in this respect it has an advantage over Labour." He explained.
↑ When Truss left office, he was left with an economic crisis that wiped Britain out of thin air by $500 billion
The British Prime Minister changes frequently
Does it trigger a butterfly effect?
Li Hao said that the British "political drama" will definitely hit the political prestige of the Conservative Party, but it is generally an "unexpected" event. In his view, this is the British government's "failure in its efforts to solve the problem once and for all".
The problems facing the UK now reflect, to a certain extent, the problems common to all European countries. Although the UK has left the EU, it has similarities with European countries, both in terms of political system, stage of socio-economic development, and numerous challenges. "This series of contradictions has gathered in a short period of time, so any country feels the pressure, but different political systems and different actual conditions in different countries may show different stages and methods." Li Hao said.
If you look at the world, from a policy perspective, the "chaos" in British politics is certainly "not very good" to deal with a series of pressing international affairs. He said that while the British polity remains stable, the government as a policy maker and executor is not, and the response to many major international issues is more urgent, and expectations for the stability of national policies are high.
"Whether it is the inflation problem that the world needs to work hard to solve together, or the global economic slowdown, as well as a series of major issues such as regional security issues and climate issues, it is urgent and requires governments, especially governments like the United Kingdom, to maintain relative stability in policy." Li Hao said, "But now the frequent change of the (British) government will definitely have a certain impact on these (problem solving) and expectations for other countries." ”
Red Star News reporter Xu slowly
Editor-in-charge Deng Xuguang Editor Xiao Ziqi
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