Nowadays, having a child is already the hottest topic, and most young people say that they "can't afford to have children, dare not have children, and don't want to have children", which is actually a true embodiment of the current mainland fertility environment and people's concept of fertility.
If you want to raise a child to adulthood, the energy paid is very large, the cost is really expensive, and the most important thing is that parents will break their hearts for their children.
In addition, now women's sense of independence is getting stronger and stronger, unwilling to have children simply because of inheritance, they are more willing to pursue themselves, and their willingness to have children is relatively weak.
First, the "population alarm" has been sounded
The impact of many factors has led to a continuous decline in the birth rate of the mainland in recent years, and the data shows that the number of registered newborns in the mainland in 2020 is only 10.03 million, which is more than 4 million less than in 2019.
As of December 31, 2021, there were 8.873 million newborns born in 2021 and registered with the public security organs, of which 4.681 million were male, accounting for 52.75%; Female newborns were 4.192 million, accounting for 47.25%.
This figure for 2021 is 1.162 million fewer than in 2020.
It is estimated that the number of births in 2022 will continue to decline by 10.57% compared with 2021, and the number of births is expected to be 9.497 million for the whole year. It is also the first time that it has fallen below 10 million people since the founding of New China last year.
This year, the mainland expects 10.7 million deaths, and this figure will rise to about 20 million in about five years (since 1950, the number of births in the mainland has exceeded 20 million per year).
This year, the continent's population will grow negatively for the first time and will rise rapidly to about 10 million per year in 5 years.
The number of births in 2022 is expected to be in the range of 9.49 million, 9.59 million and 9.98 million, respectively.
Once again, a new low has been set since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and the "population alarm" has been sounded.
In fact, the mainland fully released the second child in 2016, and the third child was also released this year, but the effect is not ideal, and in the case of fruitless birth, how can the fertility rate be really raised?
In this regard, some experts have put forward the proposal to let go of the fourth child, hoping to give up greater reproductive autonomy from the entire national level.
Second, the era of the implementation of the family planning policy
According to statistics, in the 31-year period from 1949 to 1979, the mainland achieved a net population growth of 430 million, and in 1982 it exceeded the 1 billion population mark, making the mainland the first country in the world with a population of more than 1 billion.
However, although the rapid growth of the population has created a great demographic dividend, its negative impact cannot be ignored, for example, the mainland is facing severe problems such as resource supply, increased poverty and economic development delay in the process of population growth.
Therefore, the national think tank began to study and formulate "countermeasures" since 1980, and in 1982 the "family planning" policy was designated as a basic national policy and written into the constitution, and since then, the situation of rapid population growth on the mainland has been effectively controlled.
In the 40 years since the implementation of the family planning policy, the total population of the mainland has only increased by 400 million levels, especially since 1998, the annual population increase has not even exceeded 20 million, and it has shown a gradual decline in development every year.
As everyone knows, since the implementation of the reform and opening up strategy, the mainland has achieved rapid development of the national economy based on a remarkable demographic dividend and a trade policy of opening up to the outside world, gradually enhanced its comprehensive national strength, and has ranked among middle-income countries from low-income countries, and is now still expected to get out of the "middle-income trap" and develop into a high-income country.
People's living standards are constantly improving, but new problems of low birthrate and aging are also coming.
At present, the population growth of the mainland is weak, and experts even predict that in the next 5-10 years, the mainland will officially enter the development stage of "negative population growth".
Compared with the adverse effects of rapid population growth, the negative impact of negative population growth is more concerning, in this state, the aging phenomenon of the mainland is likely to further intensify, which will lead to a series of evil consequences such as labor shortage, decline in social productivity, and decline in gross national product.
The third and second children have poor catalytic effects, and the population alarm is sounded
In this situation, the state did not sit still, but in October 2015 announced that it would take a positive attitude to deal with the aging of the action, the implementation of the two-child policy, it is also from this time that the mainland entered the era of "second birth".
However, this result is very different from the predictions of many experts: from 2011 to 2015, the annual number of new births in the mainland can still be maintained at the level of about 16 million, but just after the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy in 2016, the number of new births per year has shown a downward trend year by year.
Statistics show that the birth rate of the mainland in 2019 is only 10.48 ‰, and the new birth population is less than 15 million, and in 2020 it is even lower, just over 10 million.
In addition, from 2016 to 2019, the number of people born with one child in the mainland decreased from 9.81 million to 5.93 million, indicating that many people are not willing to have a child in a row.
At the end of 2020, the head of the Ministry of Civil Affairs said that under the influence of many factors, the willingness of the mainland's age-appropriate population to have children is not high, and now the total fertility rate has even fallen below the warning line.
And this is not the worst thing, professional institutions suggest that at this stage, the mainland has entered a "deeply aging society", it is expected that in 2050, China's elderly over 65 years old in the total population accounted for about 30%, 60 years old and over nearly one-third of the total population.
It is clear that in the future, the mainland will be under the pressure of a huge negative population growth, and the population alarm has been sounded.
Although the third child has been released this year, experts have even put forward the proposal of fully liberalizing the fourth child and giving up greater reproductive autonomy, which is also in line with public opinion.
However, many people feel that this suggestion is not very useful, after all, everyone is not even willing to have a second child, let alone a third child, or even a fourth child. In fact, some parts of the mainland have long released the third child, but it has not achieved good results.
If the three children have no effect, then what about full liberalization?
Now, the national professional institutions have made suggestions to return the policy orientation to reproductive autonomy, which is simply to fully liberalize fertility.
If the policy of full liberalization is really implemented, the fertility rate will definitely increase.
But whether it is to let go of the third or fourth child, or to fully open up, many people's attitude is not very optimistic.
Mainland population experts have pointed out that after the liberalization, people with conditions can have more children, and people without conditions can choose to have fewer children, which can actually stimulate the increase in the number of people to a certain extent.
Fourth, the state has struck, and the package is waiting to be landed
Optimize housing policies
Since the beginning of this year, more support policies have been given to multi-child families across the country, such as the Hunan Provincial Provident Fund New Deal in July, and the maximum loan of three-child families can be up to 800,000 yuan.
In the past, the property market policy emphasized more "guarantee" for housing, such as the introduction of affordable rental housing and public rental housing policies many times. The "Opinions" also have a preference for multi-child families from the aspects of provident fund and housing purchase policy, linking multi-child families with the housing market and giving multi-child families housing convenience, which is conducive to improving residents' expectations for childbirth.
At present, the real estate market is in a period of bottom-building recovery, and to look at the real estate market from a medium and long-term perspective, it is necessary to observe factors such as demographic structure. Housing policies are inclined to multi-child families, superimposed on positive fertility support measures, which helps to reduce the cost of buying a house, improve the fertility rate of multiple children, and promote market activity, which not only forms a new demographic dividend in the medium and long term, but also helps the current real estate market to accelerate the repair process.
1. Optimize the waiting list and allocation rules for public rental housing
Factor such as the number and composition of the family into the waiting list or comprehensive score, and the selection of houses can be directly organized for families that meet the conditions and have a large number of children;
2. Improve the policy of exchanging public rental housing
For those who need to change public rental housing due to reasons such as the increase in family population, employment, and children's schooling, they shall be replaced in a timely manner according to the housing situation;
3. The choice of public rental housing type is flexible
Eligible families with minor children may be given due care in the choice of household type, depending on the number of minor children;
4. Housing policies are skewed towards families with many children
Families with many children who do not have their own housing in the deposited city and rent housing can withdraw the housing provident fund according to the actual rent expenditure;
5. For families with many children who purchase their first self-occupied housing
Cities with the capacity may give relevant support policies such as appropriately increasing the amount of housing provident fund loans;
6. Accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market
Increase the supply of long-term rental housing through multiple channels and promote equal rental and purchase rights;
7. Study and formulate differentiated preferential policies
Further study and formulate preferential policies for the implementation of differentiated leasing and housing purchase according to the burden of raising minor children.
Fifth, 30 dry goods to promote fertility
On July 20, 2021, the Decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Optimizing Fertility Policies to Promote Long-term Balanced Population Development (hereinafter referred to as the "Decision") was promulgated. According to the Decision, in order to further optimize the birth policy, the implementation of a couple can have three children policy and supporting measures, and detailed planning of relevant supporting measures, including strengthening taxation, housing and other support policies, the entry into the household, school, entry and other and personal birth situation of the comprehensive decoupling, cancellation of social support fees, etc., each supporting measures are related to the construction of a child-friendly society.
The "Decision" supporting policies for everyone to sort out 30 key points and dry goods.
1. Combined with the next step of revising the Individual Income Tax Law, study and promote the inclusion of infant and child care expenses under 3 years old in the special additional deduction of personal income tax.
2. When allocating public rental housing, local governments may give appropriate care to families that meet the local housing security conditions and have minor children according to the number of minor children in terms of household type selection.
3, local governments can study and formulate preferential policies for the implementation of differentiated leasing and housing purchase according to the burden of raising minor children.
4, to meet the diversified fertility needs of the masses, the marriage, childbirth, parenting, education as a whole, effectively solve the worries of the masses, release the fertility potential, and promote family harmony and happiness.
5. Deepen reform, break down the ideological concepts, policies, regulations, institutional mechanisms and other constraints that affect the long-term balanced development of the population, and improve the ability and level of population governance.
6, the inclusive childcare service system has accelerated the construction, and the cost of childbirth, parenting and education has been significantly reduced.
7. Revise the Population and Family Planning Law of the People's Republic of China, advocate marriage-appropriate childbearing, eugenics and preferential childbearing, and implement the three-child birth policy.
8. Abolish social maintenance fees and other restrictive measures. Abolish social maintenance fees, clean up and abolish relevant penalties.
9, the household, school, employment, etc. are fully decoupled from the personal birth situation.
10. Establish and improve the population service system. With the focus on "one old and one small", establish and improve a population service system covering the whole life cycle.
11. Promote the joint handling of "birth one thing" such as birth medical certificates, child vaccination, household registration, medical insurance participation, and social security card application.
12. Fully implement the five systems of maternal and child safety, such as pregnancy risk screening and assessment, high-risk maternal case management, critical and critical care treatment, maternal death case report and interview notification. Promote the integration of reproductive health services into the entire process of women's health management.
13, regulate the application of human assisted reproductive technology. Build a human assisted reproductive technology service system with a balance between supply and demand and a reasonable layout. Strengthen the supervision of human assisted reproductive technology services, and strictly regulate the application of relevant technologies.
14. Incorporate infant and child care services into economic and social development planning, strengthen policy guidance, and guide the active participation of social forces by improving land, housing, finance, finance, talent and other support policies.
15. Develop new formats such as smart childcare, and cultivate national brands in industries such as childcare services, milk powder dairy, animation design and production.
16. Give play to the guiding and leveraging role of investment in the central budget, and promote the construction of a number of convenient and accessible, affordable and guaranteed quality childcare service institutions. Support qualified employers to provide childcare services to employees.
17. Encourage state-owned enterprises and other entities to actively participate in the construction of an inclusive childcare service system promoted by governments at all levels. Strengthen the construction of community childcare service facilities, and improve infant activity venues and service facilities in residential communities.
18. Formulate management measures for family childcare points. Support care models such as intergenerational care and family mutual assistance. Support domestic enterprises to expand childcare services. Encourage and support conditional kindergartens to enroll children aged 2 to 3 years.
19. Improve the maternity leave and maternity insurance system. Strictly implement systems such as maternity leave and lactation leave.
20. Support localities with the capacity to carry out pilot parental leave, and improve the mechanism for sharing the cost of vacation employment. Do a good job of guaranteeing the maternity medical expenses of urban and rural residents' medical insurance participants, and reduce the burden of maternity medical expenses.
21. Promote the governance of supporting kindergartens in urban communities, continue to improve the coverage rate of inclusive kindergartens, and appropriately extend the length of time in kindergartens or provide custody services.
22, promote the high-quality and balanced development of compulsory education and the integration of urban and rural areas, and effectively solve the problem of "school choice fever". Promote the connection between school hours and parents' off-duty hours.
23, improve the quality of teaching and educational evaluation in schools, and incorporate the frequency and cost of students' participation in extracurricular training into the education supervision system. Balance the burden of family and school education, and strictly regulate off-campus training.
24. For one-child families and rural two-daughter family planning families before the adjustment of the comprehensive two-child policy, the current incentive and support systems and preferential policies will continue to be implemented.
25. Explore the establishment of a nursing leave system for the parents of only children.
26. For special family members who meet the conditions for family planning, implement policies related to basic old-age care and basic medical security.
27, give priority to the arrangement of staying in public pension institutions, and provide free or low-cost care services; For those with housing difficulties, priority is given to housing security.
28. Through public bidding methods, support qualified social organizations to accept special family planning entrustments, carry out life care, spiritual comfort and other services, and handle matters such as staying in old-age institutions and seeking medical care in accordance with law.
29, promote the introduction of active fertility support measures, to ensure that responsibilities are in place, measures are in place, investment is in place, and implementation is in place.
30. Strengthen the construction of population disciplines and theoretical systems with Chinese characteristics in the new era, develop high-end think tanks for population research, and promote international exchanges and cooperation.
If you fully open up, do you have the will to live?
Judging from the current situation, the mainland has actually loosened its policies to some extent, and the report of the 14th Five-Year Plan Conference no longer has the word family planning, and will also put forward the optimization of fertility, which indicates that it is very likely to implement a new fertility policy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
However, if the situation of low fertility is to be reversed, it cannot be achieved only through the adjustment of fertility policies, but more attention should be paid to the reduction of the burden on young people, where the cost of housing and education is the most important.
One of the prerequisites for people to dare to give birth and are willing to give birth is that housing prices are stable and at the same time, they can enjoy economic subsidies.
But now that housing prices are ridiculously high, it is really a difficult problem to solve, and if this problem is not solved one day, most people are not willing to risk having a second or even a third child.
In the past, children basically could not spend a lot of money on kindergartens and primary schools, that is, the tuition fees of universities were the most expensive, but now, from the time children go to kindergarten, the cost paid has caught up with the university, even higher than the university fees, for a child to go to school, need to pay a very high cost, the reason is that the number of children's educational institutions in the mainland is very small, making it difficult and expensive for children to go to school, so we should consider the construction of more nurseries and other children's educational institutions.
In addition, there is a point, that is, women's employment rights and interests need to be further improved, if you choose to have a second child or even a third child, women's job opportunities can basically be said to be completely ruined, for women who are now more and more independent consciousness, it is obviously very difficult for them to accept this.
Therefore, many women refuse to have a second and third child, if women's workplace rights and interests are not perfect, even if the birth policy is completely liberalized, it will not be of great use.
Therefore, when these problems are not solved, if you just let go of fertility, I don't think you will be very willing to fight for the second and third children, right?
Write at the end:
Population decline will have a great adverse impact on the country, so although the mainland is the first population of the country, the full liberalization of the second child is still a necessary choice, but the current effect of the second child is not ideal, resulting in the population alarm sounding, the release of the third child, the fourth child or the full liberalization of the birth, in the next few years are likely to be implemented.
However, no matter what policy is implemented, if young people are to be willing to have children, their reproductive burden must be reduced, which is the fundamental way to solve the problem of low fertility.
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