The unexplained leak of the Nord Stream pipeline, which supplies gas from Russia to Europe, continues to escalate, with the Swedish Coast Guard saying a fourth leak was found.
The Danish Energy Agency previously confirmed that a leak point was found in the Nord Stream-2 pipeline in the waters near Denmark on the 26th, and two more leak points were found in the Nord Stream-1 pipeline, which are located in the waters near Denmark and Sweden. Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet quoted the country's Coast Guard as saying that in addition to the three damage points previously found, new leaks had been found in the Nord Stream-2 pipeline. Two of the four spill points are located in the Swedish exclusive economic zone and the other two are in the Danish exclusive economic zone.
The leak was discovered after a sudden sharp drop in pressure in the Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2 pipelines on Monday. It has been argued that Nord Stream-1 could be permanently damaged due to seawater corrosion of the inside of the pipeline, making the already ill-fated Nord Stream-2 increasingly hopeless.
The Nord Stream pipeline was once known as the lifeblood of European energy, but it has been twisting and turning under the dark cloud of multiple rounds of sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia this year. Gazprom said on September 2 that Nord Stream-1 will stop gas supply indefinitely due to the discovery of multiple equipment failures. The Nord Stream-2 has a design capacity comparable to that of the Nord Stream-1, but it has not been opened after its completion last year, and some natural gas is still sealed in the pipeline.
Just as the market focused on the Nord Stream spill, Gazprom announced on Tuesday that it was considering imposing sanctions on Ukraine's state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz in response to the latter's recent arbitration claims. This has triggered fears that all Russian gas shipments transiting through Ukraine could be halted as a result. Fueled by various emotions, less than 30 minutes before the close of trading on Monday, the "European natural gas price vane" TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price rose sharply in recent months, hitting a nearly 20% intraday increase and a high price of 208 euros / MWh, ending the previous several consecutive days of decline.
As of the close of trading on the 28th, European gas prices remained firm, with the November TTF gas contract standing at 221 euros per MWh, which is equivalent to nearly 15 times the price in the same period in 2020.
The price trend of TTF natural gas futures in the Netherlands in the past two years
Swedish seismologist Bjørn Lund said he was convinced that the seismic activity detected at the Nord Stream pipeline gas leak site was caused by an explosion, not an earthquake or landslide. "At least 100 kg of TNT explosive power."
Who blew up Nord Stream? As of now, the only parties have reached an agreement on this is a "deliberate sabotage".
Danish Prime Minister Mater Frazier Riksen said it could not be ruled out that "deliberate sabotage" had led to the Nord Stream pipeline spill. "It's too early to draw conclusions, but it's an extraordinary situation." "There were three leaks that are hard to imagine as accidental... These are deliberate acts, not accidents. ”
Robert Habek, Germany's minister of economy and climate protection, said the German government was convinced that the Nord Stream pipeline leak was not caused by natural occurrence or material aging, but rather a "targeted attack". German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel, citing a German official who said the sudden decompression of pressure on the two pipelines could be the result of a "targeted attack", added that Russian involvement could not be ruled out, but said Germany was not involved in the ongoing investigation in Denmark and Sweden.
According to the British Sky News channel, citing a source from the British Ministry of Defense, the British authorities believe that the Nord Stream gas pipeline incident may have occurred due to the attack of underwater explosive devices that were remotely detonated. Any mine could have been dropped from the side of a boat and lowered to the bottom of the sea months or even years ago in a long chain, or placed next to the Nord Stream pipeline with an underwater drone.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would respond most strongly to the deliberate disruption of Europe's energy facilities.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Tuesday that they had spoken with Danish officials about the pipeline sabotage, "The United States is supporting the investigation and we will continue to work to maintain energy security in Europe." Sullivan wrote on Twitter. State Department spokesman Ned Price used similar language in a statement on Tuesday.
Blinken declared that if the attack or vandalism caused the Nord Stream gas pipeline to leak, it would be "not in anyone's interest."
According to Russia's Interfax news agency, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that "no reason can be ruled out now." "It's clear that the pipe has been damaged in some way. What the reason is – until the findings come along – cannot rule out any version. ”
Asked if Russia was involved in the sabotage of the Nord Stream, Peskov denied it, saying it had long foreseen such "absurd and stupid" claims. He said two feeder lines of the Nord Stream-2 pipeline have been injected with natural gas and are ready to be delivered, but the high-priced gas is now leaking, which is not in Russia's interest.
"Have we benefited from this? No, we lost a route to deliver gas to Europe. He stressed that U.S. suppliers are making high profits by peddling liquefied natural gas to Europe, and these companies want to take advantage of the opportunity to make more profits. Peskov called on relevant countries to communicate and dialogue with Russia to find out the ins and outs of the damage to the Nord Stream. According to him, there is a "clear lack of communication at this stage".
The day after the Nord Stream spill, Danish Prime Minister Flèser Riksen prepared to travel to Poland to attend the opening of Norway's Baltic Sea gas pipeline to Poland. Norway is a major producer and exporter of natural gas in Europe and is currently one of the main clients of EU countries seeking to "reduce their energy dependence on Russia".
After the Nord Stream incident, the Norwegian prime minister said he would deploy troops to protect the country's oil and gas facilities from destruction.
At present, it seems that whether Europe can survive the winter safely is still "up to the sky".
CITIC Futures believes that European natural gas has now replenished to 87%, which is at a historically high inventory level, which has provided a certain margin of safety for winter, and if the EU can resolutely implement the 15% consumption reduction target, the EU has enough natural gas stocks to spend this year's heating season. From the perspective of demand risk, Europe has begun to cool down, if this year's heating season weather is unusually cold, demand has greatly exceeded expectations, resulting in inventory depletion too fast, prices may rise sharply again.