On September 27, there was an explosive news that three pipelines in North Stream had been damaged simultaneously within a day.
Nord Stream Natural Gas Pipeline issued a statement saying that the simultaneous damage to three offshore pipelines in one day is "unprecedented" and it is not yet possible to assess the time for repair.
The leak of the Nord Stream Line has attracted much attention
According to CCTV, the two major submarine pipelines "Nord Stream-1" and "Nord Stream-2" natural gas pipelines that transport natural gas to Europe in Russia detected gas leakage on the 26th, and the air pressure in the pipeline dropped. The Danish Energy Agency confirmed on the 27th that shortly after the "Nord Stream-2" pipeline in the waters near Denmark found a leak point on the 26th, the "Nord Stream-1" pipeline found two more leak points, which were located in the waters near Denmark and Sweden.
According to Swedish television stations reported on the 27th, the Swedish survey station detected two strong underwater explosions in the same water area where the "Nord Stream-1" and "Nord Stream-2" natural gas pipelines leaked on the 26th. One of the explosions produced an earthquake equivalent to magnitude 2.3, which was detected at 30 measuring stations in southern Sweden.
Danish Prime Minister Fraser Riksen said on the evening of the 27th that the leakage of the "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline was not an "accident" but a "deliberate sabotage".
The Russian Embassy in Denmark responded at the first time that it should fully investigate the "Nord Stream" pipeline leakage accident and make the results of the investigation public. Russian presidential press secretary Peskov told the media on the 27th that it is not ruled out that the pipeline accident is caused by sabotage activities.
A spokesman for Germany's Federal Ministry of the Interior said the ministry was "very serious" about the damage to the pipeline and that the federal government was in close contact with the German security services as well as the governments of countries such as Denmark and Sweden. Countries such as Poland, Denmark and Ukraine believe there are indications that the pipeline could be vandalized. Nord Stream-2 pipeline operators say the design and laying of the pipeline is unlikely to be damaged in multiple places at the same time.
The EU also condemns this, arguing that the information currently available proves that the pipeline has been deliberately sabotaged, and supports a comprehensive investigation into the truth and causes of the incident by the countries concerned.
According to Reuters, US Secretary of State Blinken said on the 27th local time that at a time when Europe and Russia are in an energy stalemate on the gas supply issue, if the attack or sabotage leads to the leakage of natural gas pipelines, "it is not good for anyone." "There are preliminary reports that this (gas pipeline spill) may be the result of an attack or some kind of sabotage, but these are all preliminary reports and we haven't confirmed yet, but if confirmed, it's clearly not good for anyone," he said.
It is worth noting that when the Nord Stream pipeline was destroyed, the four regions of Russia and Ukraine completed the referendum on the afternoon of the 27th, and the referendum results: Donetsk 99.23%, Luhansk 98.42%, Zaporozhye 93.11%, and Kherson 87.05%. From the point of view of time, the pipeline explosion immediately followed the Russian war mobilization and the announcement of the results of the referendum on the entry of the four Ukrainian states into Russia. Although the cause of the accident is to be determined, it is difficult not to understand that it is a measure taken by the relevant countries to deal with Russia.
Europe "cut off gas" These beneficiary stocks rose and fell
German media reported that the damage to the Nord Stream-1 pipeline and the Nord Stream-2 pipeline may be more severe than expected, which could also trigger turmoil in the European gas market, and although no gas is currently transported through the pipeline, uncertainty has increased and gas prices may also rise with it.
Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2 are two parallel natural gas pipelines with a total length of more than 1,000 kilometers from Russia to Germany via the territorial waters of Finland, Sweden and Denmark. At present, Nord Stream-2 has not yet been opened, but there is gas storage in the pipeline.
By the second quarter of 2022, the flow of Nord Stream 1 natural gas will reach about 160 million cubic meters per day, and Gazprom will import more than 40% of the natural gas used in Europe. From July 27, 2022, the natural gas flow of Beixi No. 1 will drop to 33 million cubic meters per day. Earlier this month, Russia announced the indefinite closure of Nord Stream 1. The spill will make it impossible to restore the opening and normal traffic.
As a result, the European gas and electricity markets have changed. On the 27th, the Dutch TTF natural gas futures jumped nearly 20% intraday, with the futures price +7.1% to 186.1 euros/MWh, and the spot price of natural gas +7.7% to 186.1 euros/MWh; Electricity futures (Germany 9.27) + 0.6% to 345.4 EUR/MWh, electricity spot price (before 9.28 German prices) +24.5% to 386.2 EUR/MWh.
On September 28, the A-share gas sector rose sharply. As of the close, the Wind Gas Index was up 1.48%, the only two of Wind's theme-themed sectors to rise (the other being a bank) and the only sector that had risen more than 1%.
Among them, Kaitian Gas rose by 10.87%, Delong Huineng rose to a stop, Jiufeng Energy and Nanjing Public Utilities rose by more than 6%, Guizhou Gas, Fo Burn Energy, Shuifa Gas, and Chongqing Gas rose one after another.
In addition, the relevant stocks that may benefit from the European energy crisis have also risen and fallen. For example, the shares of the Common Enterprise, which is mainly engaged in plastic pipes, solar energy and other businesses, rose again today, harvesting 4 consecutive plates; The main business is the production and sales of electric blankets, Rainbow Group, harvesting 4 plates in 6 days.
The solar water heater faucet with the concept of air energy heat pump sunrise in the east, today harvested 3 plates. Vantage shares, which also have air energy heat pump business, rushed straight up in the afternoon to seal the rise and stop. And the big yuan pump industry, have risen sharply.
Institutional interpretation: focus on the main line of energy and chemical industry
Everbright new interpretation, previously, the capital market has been trading winter energy crisis expectations. The North Stream pipeline explosion is a double-edged sword. exacerbated the fundamentals of Europe's energy crisis; The direct interest in this incident is Europe, which also deprives Russia of some leverage to improve Russian-European relations, and the beneficiaries are obvious.
In the face of debt problems, industrial enterprise management problems and resident opposition in Europe, the intensification of game measures in the situation between Russia and Ukraine will promote the clarification of geopolitical policies. The follow-up political statements of Europe and Russia are an important basis for judging whether the energy line can continue.
Because the main line of energy (household storage, natural gas, heat pumps, etc.) is trading on the right side, under the energy crisis and the logic of double carbon, it continues to be optimistic about the short-term, medium- and long-term fundamentals, while the short-term stock price fluctuations are more affected by the geopolitical policy and the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
CITIC Construction Investment New Energy believes that the annual futures price of European natural gas has soared after the Nord Stream accident, and superimposed on Russia's natural gas exports to Europe through Ukraine is also currently facing sanctions, which has now exceeded 200 euros/MWh. In recent months, the price of futures is lower than that of 1-year futures due to the arrival of LNG ships in large quantities and the relatively sufficient natural gas reserves of various countries. In the long run, the supply and demand of natural gas in Europe will remain tight, and electricity prices will remain high for a long time due to gas prices.
The frequent incidents have greatly stimulated the emotional motivation and economic motivation of European customers to buy household savings. Previously, it has been calculated that the electricity price threshold of the 8-year recovery period of household storage is 150 euros / MWh (spot electricity price), even if the simple limit price to 180 euros / MWh still has good economy, the lower limit price of high gas prices is difficult to sustain. In addition, frequent energy crisis events have stimulated the nerves of European consumers, and the first motivation to buy household storage at the time of the cold wave has been changed to ensuring energy security. The prosperity of European household storage and installation capacity will be maintained for a long time, and it is firmly optimistic that the household storage sector will not waver.
CITIC Construction Investment recommends beneficiary targets: Household Storage Leader, Deye Shares, Jinlang Technology, Sungrow Power, Goodway, Hemai Shares, Yuneng Technology, Crestec, Huabao Xinneng, etc.
Guojin Securities believes that the Nord Stream pipeline leakage does not change the current supply situation of German natural gas, the current German natural gas storage capacity has reached more than 91%, the storage rate of European natural gas inventories is about 88%, but from September last year to the end of last year, the gas output of the Nord Stream-1 pipeline accounted for 15% of the EU's imported natural gas, and this gap and the upcoming peak demand season make the European winter natural gas supply still uncertain.
European natural gas supply continues to be tight, and it is recommended to pay attention to the varieties with a high proportion of production capacity in Europe. Against the backdrop of increased uncertainty about European gas imports, European gas prices are expected to remain high. Natural gas is an important raw material for industrial energy and some chemicals in Europe, and the force majeure of BASF's PVP products in Ludwigshafen, Germany, on September 12 also confirmed the impact of high energy prices on European chemicals.
At present, the varieties with high production capacity in Europe are vitamins, methionine, PVP, MDI, TDI, M-CRESOL, ETC., FOR DOMESTIC RELATED ENTERPRISES, ON THE ONE HAND, THEY MAY BENEFIT FROM THE PRICE INCREASE BROUGHT BY THE REGIONAL PRICE INCREASE OF IMPORTANT CHEMICALS IN Europe to the world, on the other hand, they can use the relatively low cost of domestic raw materials to increase the competitiveness of overseas exports.
IFC recommends focusing on PVP faucet new open source, vitamin faucet Xinhecheng, m-cresol faucet Huilong shares, MDI faucet Wanhua Chemical, TDI faucet Cangzhou Dahua and methionine faucet Adisseo .
This article is from Caixin