Author: Mizuki Ran
Why is the world economy starting to stagnate? What exactly went wrong?
You may not yet be aware of the fact that our current increase in wealth does not come from increased productivity, but from the fact that we are constantly eroding our wealth tomorrow.
Let's start with two sets of data:
The total global debt in 2020 is $293 trillion, which is about 3.6 times the total amount of global debt. Total debt grew by another $10 trillion to $303 trillion in 2021, a figure that is already 10 times the size of the U.S. Treasury debt.
Data at the end of 2021 show that Japan's debt scale is 12.7 trillion US dollars, while Japan's GDP in the same period is only 4.94 trillion US dollars, and the debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 256.9%, and the debt ratio is nearly twice that of the United States.
Know that 100 years ago the total amount of global debt was 0!
Generation after generation of reproduction, generation after generation of debt, we have long lived in an inflated bubble!
That is to say: the rate of expansion of human desires has been far greater than the rate of progress of human productivity.
So who makes us owe so much money? Who is the culprit?
With the development of the productive forces, the factories continue to produce a large number of products, but these products are becoming more and more difficult to sell, because the consumers are mainly laborers, but the capitalist system has led to the continuous concentration of social wealth in the hands of a small number of rich people, who although rich but account for only a very small minority, rely on them to pull down consumption. The working people, as the main body of consumption, do not have so much money to consume, so this causes the product to not circulate, and a large amount of surplus begins. This is overcapacity.
That is to say, although society stimulates people's enthusiasm for "production and creation" to the greatest extent, the social wealth created continues to flow in the direction of the rich, not a circular flow. At a certain stage, it can no longer flow, resulting in sluggish consumption. This is the economic crisis.
At this time, in order to increase consumption, the government began to borrow, quantitative easing, issue money, etc., in an attempt to enhance the public's consumption capacity, the key problem is: the capitalist system caused by the government to loosen the money can not flow to the place where it is needed, but it is easier to be used by capital, and it has flowed into the space that is most likely to appreciate, such as real estate, stock markets, and capital markets.
To use a vivid analogy: it is as if the sky is too dry, and the people urgently need God to rain, and as a result, God will rain to the flooded area. So some parts of the world will always be flooded, and the other parts will always be droughts, and they can't dredge each other. At this time, the best solution is not to let God rain again, but to carry out an artificial rain that pours water directly into the dry area.
However, as the leader of the global economy, the United States, coupled with the fact that the US dollar is the foundation of the global currency, whenever it encounters an economic crisis, the United States likes to borrow from the country, take the lead in over-issuing currency, and use flooding to escape the problem!
Keynes once said: Borrowers have a natural impulse to not pay their debts, so the easiest way for the government to pay their debts is to continue to issue money, thereby diluting the purchasing power of money in the hands of creditors. In other words, currency over-issuance is the inevitable fate of debt.
This forms a chain of liabilities:
1: The United States is bottomlessly overdrawing its credit and issuing US bonds to the world; (Loose Money)
2: Countries also consume their own credit without restriction and issue treasury bonds to the whole country; (Currency over-issuance)
3: Every family makes full use of the credit of its members to borrow money to buy a house...
Today we are all like frogs boiled in warm water.
The essence of this is that people are becoming more and more greedy, and the unearned and lazy nature of human nature is infinitely magnified. We are all consuming and overdrawing tomorrow's credit, living in illusion and panic, people are afraid and everyone is at risk.
God said: Each of you is guilty.
Out of the mix, one day will be returned.
Global debt, eventually grafted onto everyone's head.
When the avalanche occurs, not a single snowflake is innocent.
Every time the economy is not good, the government will issue currency to stimulate the economy, which is like a person who is sick and goes to eat Western medicine, but the more he eats, the worse the effect, the greater the amount of food, and the result is inextricable...
There is no doubt that the United States is the initiator of debt! The global financial black hole it dominates is essentially a fraud, or a pyramid scheme that has always been legal.
In the case of high debt, there has been a sharp divergence between global asset prices and the real economy, such as house prices! Ultra-low interest rates and the over-issuance of currencies have led to an increase in global housing prices.
And some speculators also continue to speculate, during this period continue to increase the lever to speculate in the house, resulting in a continuous rise in house prices, speculators do not work for nothing, the majority of workers (just need) can only sigh.
Who ranks at the top of the global debt ratio?
It turns out to be the so-called high-welfare countries we aspire to: Switzerland/Denmark/Australia/Netherlands/Norway/Sweden/South Korea/Uk, and so on!
This is the truth of the so-called high welfare in Europe and the United States, in fact, they are just borrowing and consuming.
Today, signs have repeatedly proved that the global economy has encountered an irreconcilable contradiction caused by the capitalist system itself, which can never be resolved by a single policy.
Because in capitalist countries, as long as the fundamental system does not change, no matter what kind of adjustment scheme is adopted, the people at the bottom can never enjoy the fruits of social development, as long as the wealth created by society cannot be enjoyed by the whole society, then the economic crisis will always exist, and it will become more and more severe every time.
Therefore, I often predict that the capitalist system will die out. No system can last forever, capitalism also replaced feudalism in the past, and today it is socialism that replaces capitalism!
Marx predicted 150 years ago that capitalism had three stages: feudal capitalism, imperial capitalism, and welfare capitalism, and then entered its demise.
The high welfare of Europe (especially Northern Europe) now belongs to welfare capitalism. Is the demise of capitalism still far away?
China's socialist system is likely to become a model for the social development model.
Come on China, the era that belongs to China has just begun!
In life, the most difficult thing is "sobriety in the world".
Ordinary people are superficial and painful, and the masters are profound and relaxed.
For more information, please purchase the signature version of Mizuki ran's new book "Awakening on Earth"!
Mizuki ran's work "Human Sobriety + Law of Value" Signature Encouragement Edition ¥49 Purchase