Text/Wang Xinxi
The development history of the iPhone in China has always been accompanied by the participation of scalpers, and every time a new iPhone is released or the birth of a generation of explosive models, it is also inextricably linked to the promotion and participation of scalpers.
Because of the downturn in the smartphone market this year, Apple-related supply chains, retailers, and scalpers have put the highlight of this year's performance on the iPhone 14, hoping that the best-selling iPhone 14 will make up for this year's dismal performance. There are also bloggers on Weibo who posted the pre-sale activities of the iPhone 14 series of offline stores, which are basically sold at a higher price, and some bloggers say that this is the scalper price.
Among them, the price of the iPhone 14 is from 6699 yuan; The pre-price of the iPhone 14 Plus is from 7399 yuan; The iPhone 14 Pro Max is pre-priced from 10899 yuan.
But this year's scalper's wishful thinking is likely to fail, and this year's apple stock is close to 100 million units, and the supply is sufficient. The situation of first sale out of stock will be greatly alleviated. In fact, with the downgrading of consumption and the lengthening of the consumer replacement cycle, iPhone sales are facing more uncertainty, and this year's scalpers want to make a big profit by hoarding goods, and may have to misjudge the situation.
Scalper's iPhone business has made many people rich
In the past years, the release of new iPhones is often accompanied by the dilemma of selling well and the early shortage of goods, after the release of the iPhone 13 last year, there was also a scalper price increase, iPhone 13 Pro Max when the highest scalper price increased by more than 1,000 yuan, the reason is because apple production capacity is limited, there is a shortage dilemma.
The shortage of goods means that many mobile phone users can not use the latest Apple mobile phone for a long time after the release of the new machine, because the new iPhone is undersupplied, the scarcity is highlighted, then the price can continue to be speculated, which gives scalpers business opportunities.
A large number of scalpers will be in the early stage of a large number of rush to buy hoarding, at the time of the release of the iPhone6, the door of the Apple store in each city, you can find a large number of Chinese scalpers queuing figure, due to the difficulty of domestic rush to buy, a large number of scalpers even sweep the goods in the world, and then through the domestic related channels to increase the price of resale, especially when the release of the iPhone 6 is unprecedented, when the iPhone4 was first launched, there were scalpers in Zhongguancun to bid 20,000, and the iPhone 6 refreshed the record that year. Scalpers were quoted at a high price of 28,000 at the time. A large number of scalpers are therefore very profitable.
In 2014, when the iPhone6s was released, thousands of scalpers appeared in Hong Kong, Australia, the United States, Japan, from home to overseas, and hoarded goods around the world, resulting in the iPhone 6 Plus was once speculated to 20,000.
Recently, there have also been media sources pointing out that some scalpers rely on the iPhone business to buy a suite in Yanjiao. The case of the enrichment of a single scalper also gives a large number of scalpers the confidence to participate in it.
In the months leading up to the iPhone 14 release, there were already a lot of scalpers looking forward to this business. After all, the sound of the iPhone 14 series selling well this time seems to be far more than the sound of the decline.
Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingji previously said through overseas social platforms that based on his survey of Chinese distributors, retailers and scalpers, the demand for the iPhone 14 in the Chinese market may be stronger than that of the iPhone 13. They paid the "largest upfront deposit ever" for the iPhone 14. He pointed out that at present, in the Chinese market, Apple's iPhone 14 prepayment is significantly higher than the iPhone 13 series, and even doubled in some regions.
Guo Mingji recently said in the latest news that he recently spoke again with distributors/retailers/scalpers in China, who said that they believe that China's potential demand for the iPhone 14 series is continuing to increase, and the demand will be even greater than that of the iPhone 13.
According to the analysis of parts suppliers and logistics, Apple's iPhone 14 shipments in the second half of this year may reach about 100 million units or 90 million units.
The industry's high sales of the iPhone 14 series are not because the phone has brought huge innovation, but because the iPhone currently has no rival competitors in China. Judging from the influencing factors of the new iPhone sales in the past, it does not rely on innovation, but more from higher recognition and lower prices to win.
From the past history, the adjustment of appearance and color matching and the reasonable pricing of the price have always attracted a large number of consumers to pay for it. Judging from the current exposure, the new color scheme includes green, purple, bronze, new blue, etc., especially purple has a high degree of attention. The highlight of product form innovation is that the biggest change in the Phone 14 Pro series may be to replace the bangs screen with an exclamation point screen, which is reported to be turned into a pill screen through software, similar to android phones hiding bangs.
Overall, with the blessing of new large-screen models, cancellation of bangs, stronger images, and larger running memory (6GB standard in the whole series), if in previous years, the demand for iPhone 14 still continues the popularity of the iPhone 13 series, the possibility exists.
Uncertainty becomes more, scalpers hoard or cause tragedy
But this year, there are more uncertainties.
At present, Apple's stock exceeds 100 million units, in addition to the official website, offline stores, some cities have also opened a 3-hour delivery service to avoid scalpers from earning the difference. Judging from the stock of the iPhone 14, the probability of scalpers hoarding goods in their hands will increase.
The second is pricing, which is the most critical variable, according to the news, iPhone 14 has a total of four models, the starting price of ordinary models may be the same as the previous generation, and the high-end models of the Pro suffix may rise by about 15%. Among them, the high-end model iPhone 14 Pro Max has a starting price of 9999 yuan, and the top price is as high as 13799 yuan, which can be said to be very expensive.
On the basis of the price increase, the possibility of scalpers making money by selling them at a higher price becomes lower. Judging from this year's market situation, this year is almost facing the industry environment with the lowest fan in the past 10 years. According to the data released by Canalys in the second quarter, global smartphone shipments fell below 300 million units in the second quarter of this year due to the economic downturn.
In the economic downturn and the uncertain market shrinkage environment under the epidemic, people's demand for brand premium will make people need to survive and live, and people are more inclined to downgrade consumption than consumption upgrades.
In this environment, iPhone sales are also facing uncertainty, just need consumption may further flow into the low-end market products, high-end mobile phone products this year may suffer more obvious impact, according to the earlier IDC forecast, this year China's annual smartphone shipments fell by 12%, the second quarter will continue the first quarter of the year-on-year decline of 14% trend, is expected to fall by 14.8%. Under this low expectation of future sales, Apple is also a little anxious.
If the pricing of the iPhone14 is within the accepted range of people, it is optimistic to estimate that it can sell, but it is a little difficult to reach the heat of the iPhone 13, and in this market, the probability of scalpers hoarding goods and selling their own mobile phones is very large.
After all, the current people have become more rational to change the machine, the eve of the release of the iPhone14, the current concern about the price of the iPhone13 consumers are becoming more and more, but the market has come out a lot of persuasion to choose the iPhone 13 but not recommended to look forward to the news of the iPhone14, the same is true in the second-hand market, according to the Q2 mobile phone market report released by the transfer group, Apple's iPhone ranked first in the second-hand market brand list with 34.79% of the transaction volume.
This means that fewer and fewer consumers are willing to pay for high premiums. In the past, scalpers in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and other places have been in the dilemma of bankruptcy due to hoarding. This year, the probability of scalpers' business being yellow has undoubtedly increased.
The manager of a mobile phone store said a few days ago that as the manager of a mobile phone store, I can clearly tell you that the era of grabbing iPhones to earn the difference in price is gone.
Scalpers have almost become a unique phenomenon of iPhone sales in China, of course, this kind of speculation can be traced back to the early days of reform and opening up, we see that the former "dual-track system" cultivated the "upside-down master", for the Chinese people who have come all the way from poverty and whiteness, making a fortune is almost the ultimate dream of most Chinese people, and the deification of the former "upside-down master" overnight riches has also made many Chinese people envious and jealous, in China's fiercely competitive soil, speculation to get rich has its breeding soil, take the back door to find a relationship, Or bypassing barriers to create opportunities or create profits has become a subtle and secret cultural existence of many Chinese people's thick black success learning. It can be seen that the speculative culture of iPhone scalper global sweeping domestic scalping has its own historical basis.
But from this year's point of view, Apple's growth curve in the Chinese market may enter a new inflection point, due to price increases, the epidemic led to the consumer market downturn and other factors, the possibility of iPhone sales after the price increase is very large, in addition, a large number of consumers are planning to buy a more cost-effective previous model, to iPhone 13 mostly, people's demand for reverse replacement is getting stronger and stronger, coupled with the rise of the current second-hand mobile phone market, A large number of channels and products can meet people's demands for cost-effective purchase of iPhones.
The opponent who beat Apple has not yet appeared, but Apple may be temporarily defeated by the time of day and the consumer mentality. In this context, scalpers who hope to resell the iPhone14 may face a rather cruel market reality, if they disregard the current market consumption reality and wantonly hoard goods, losses or high probability events.
Author: Wang Xinxi Senior TMT Reviewer This article is not allowed to be reproduced without permission