At the beginning of September, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been more than half a year, but there is still no sign of subsidence, and the United States continues to fan the flames, and the longer it drags on, the greater the impact on the global economy and society.
Today we will talk about: Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which countries have been the most deeply injured and have become the most miserable "leeks"?
In late February, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict officially broke out under the constant fire of the United States. At that time, many people around the world, including most people in China, believed that Russia would definitely be able to solve the Ukrainian army in a short period of time, after all, the gap between the military strength of the two countries was too big.
Surprisingly, however, the Russo-Ukrainian War continues to this day. Over the past six months, the continuous crackdown on the new crown epidemic has seriously impacted the global supply chain, industrial chain and value chain system, and the prices of commodities such as energy and food have continued to rise, and the risk of high global inflation has been promoted.
Image source: Weibo @ Global Times
Shortly after the war began, in order to sanction Russia in the war, the United States did not hesitate to sacrifice the interests of the European brothers, directly taking Russia's oil, gas, etc. to "open the knife", and later kicked Russia out of the SWIFT system, and even a tree and a cat were within the scope of sanctions.
Affected by this, the Russian stock market fell sharply at the end of February, and then closed for nearly a month for the first time. Just when everyone thought that Russia might be "crippled" by the West, the turning point began, and Russia's "countermeasures" appeared.
Russia's counterattack is mainly from two major aspects, and it is also the most important strategy.
The first is energy weapons.
Under the sanctions of the United States and the West, Russia's energy exports have been greatly restricted, resulting in a sharp rise in global energy prices, a sharp rise in the CPI index of European countries, a sharp increase in the cost of living for the People of Europe, a lot of suffering for the people, and a sharp decline in the support of the president's leaders in their own countries.
For example, according to German media reports, according to the latest polls, the support of German Chancellor Scholz has fallen to a new low, and only 25% of respondents expressed satisfaction with his work, and 62% said they were dissatisfied.
Image source: Baidu News
At the same time, Europe, the United States and the West also imposed an export embargo on Russia, which had a great impact on the Russian commodity market and supply chain, but Russia resisted! A survey in early June showed that 11.7 percent of Russian companies went out of business as a result of sanctions, but 86.7 percent have returned to normal.
However, European countries are unlucky, not only did not get benefits from the sanctions, but because of the high prices of oil and gas, inflation increased, coupled with the extremely serious high temperature and drought this summer, making the European economy worse. Typically in Estonia, the CPI rose as much as 23.2% year-on-year in July, the highest inflation rate in the EU-27 in the month.
In fact, with the exception of Estonia, inflation within the EUROPEAN Union has broken through or approached double digits: in July, Inflation in Latvia was 21.3%, in the Czech Republic 17.3%, in Poland 14.2%, in Slovenia 11.7%, in the Netherlands 11.6%, in Greece 11.3%, in Spain 10.7%, in Germany 8.5%, in Italy 7.9%...
However, the fatal thing is that the United States, as the "big brother" of Europe, continues to sprinkle salt on the "wounds" of Europe: the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates sharply, making the already weak European economy "worse", the prospect is worrying, affecting the euro, the pound sterling and other currencies have depreciated sharply, and the euro is an unprecedented rout, directly by the dollar, and the current value is much cheaper than the dollar.
A senior commentary article published on the website of Forbes magazine in the United States wrote: "The sanctions imposed on Russia after the escalation of the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine have turned Europe into a 'third world' among the economies of the Western world."
Image source: Forbes magazine website
The above article believes that after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the European stock market is the worst performer in the Western world, while the inflation in European countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany is more serious. The sanctions have triggered a sharp rise in commodity prices that have hurt the European economy the most. If Russia and Ukraine do not cease fire soon, Europe is likely to despair this winter, and supply chains will be very tight.
But the United States seems to have turned a blind eye to the crisis of the European brothers and continues to fan the flames and provide batch after batch of weapons support for Ukraine. If you think about it carefully, you can understand the logic of this, the United States is completely concerned with its own interests, because of the conflict, European countries will have security concerns, and Ukraine will buy more American arms and weapons, and even Germany will buy weapons from the United States.
According to Reuters, as early as March this year, Germany decided to order 35 F-35 stealth fighters from the United States, and it was close to reaching an agreement. Just recently, the U.S. State Department approved an $8.4 billion arms sale, including the F-35 fighter jet that Germany originally wanted to purchase, as well as some military supplies and equipment.
Image source: NetEase
At the same time, the war continues and the supply chain crisis continues, Russia's oil exports are sanctioned, global energy prices will continue to remain high, and the United States, as the world's largest oil producer, will be able to sell more oil at higher prices. At the same time, the United States has attacked and controlled Syria through war, and has taken the opportunity to steal oil and grab oil in Syria, change hands and sell at high prices, and can make a windfall!
Image source: Baidu News
There are also greater interests on Wall Street, the dollar continues to raise interest rates, short global risk assets, with the stock market as the most, and Wall Street's financial predators can bury the short orders to the market, short it seems too easy. And the dollar interest rate hike led to a return to the United States, the dollar appreciated and other countries' currencies depreciated, the American people bought things cheaply, and the United States made a lot of money.
Many people may say, is there no one who has joined forces to resist this kind of US "cutting leeks"? Now all countries are embarking on "de-dollarization", which is a move of counterattack and self-defense. But the dollar's hegemony is deeply entrenched, and it may take time to shake it completely.
Since the United States banned Russia from using the SWIFT system, the rest of the world has felt "cold on the lips", and under the leadership of Russia's "de-dollarization", more than 60 countries have begun to promote this plan, and Japan may also join it.
Russian Prime Minister Mishustin recently said that it is necessary to increase the proportion of rubles in international settlements and gradually abandon the use of non-friendly countries' currencies, while stressing the need to improve the Russian financial system, Russia's repayment of European bonds considering borrowing from the "ruble settlement order" of natural gas trade.
Image source: Phoenix Finance
At present, Japan has also compromised with Russia for the sake of energy supply. Mitsui & Co., a Japanese integrated trading company, recently said that Russia has authorized the company to invest in the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas energy project, which means that the "gas-starved" Japan has taken a step towards a stable supply of liquefied natural gas.
Now it's Europe, and Gazprom says it will suspend gas transmission in the Nord Stream pipeline for three days starting Sept. 1, while the company suspends gas supply to France's Engie. Russia's sudden "gas outage" plan is even worse for Europe, which is facing a serious energy crisis.
According to the British "Independent" newspaper, due to high energy prices, 23% of Britons will not turn on heating this winter, and 69% of residents plan to reduce heating. After October, the Briton's electricity bill will rise by as high or rise by 80%, and the account will reach a record 3549 pounds per year.
Nearly 80% of British bar owners say they will not be able to afford to raise electricity bills and the country could face "massive closures of bars and restaurants".
London Mayor Sadiq Khan warned that the cost-of-living crisis could develop into a "national disaster" if the government did not take immediate action.
Overall, whether it is economic and financial, or energy supply, or people's well-being, Europe is the biggest loser in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine needless to say, their actor president has destroyed the homes of ordinary people, and now Ukrainian refugees are all over Europe.
And Germany, France, Britain and other countries in Europe have not gained any benefits, but have suffered heavy blows in many fields such as economy, society, and people's livelihood, and the lives of ordinary people are also getting worse.
The biggest beneficiary is the United States, which can sell arms, weapons and equipment in war conflicts, and energy prices soar; U.S. oil exports can make a lot of money; The dollar appreciates, Wall Street's capital predators can short the global stock market and make a windfall, the currencies of other countries depreciate, and the United States can buy more cheap goods.
At present, many economists believe that Europe this year may be the biggest breach of the global economy, and Germany may be the worst. What do you think about that? Feel free to express your views in the comments section!
Bibliography:
[1] Global Network "The biggest post-war energy crisis is approaching Europe!" British media propose to block the windows to keep out the cold"
[2]. Listen to Feng Whisper "The Real Names of European Countries Are Miserable!" Weapons and money, but also by the United States company "short" robbery
[3]. NetEase Finance "Russia to the French giant "out of gas"! the biggest post-war energy crisis approaching Europe"
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