Source: Global Times
With the deepening of the contradictions between the United States and the West and Russia, especially since the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Arctic, which is equally important in strategic and military value, has been drawn into the center of geopolitical competition. At the end of August, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said during a visit to Canada that "Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic region is not in the interest of NATO countries", so NATO will strengthen its presence in the region; Then the News came from the United States that it was going to appoint an "Arctic Ambassador"... Whether at the economic or military level, Russia's investment in the Arctic has made NATO countries led by the United States nervous, and in the eyes of these countries, Russia's "Arctic muscles" are strong enough that they must not be left behind. Why do Russia and the United States and the West attach so much importance to the "Arctic battlefield"? Will the arctic world of ice and snow really stage a scene of war?
"The danger of Arctic presence becoming a battlefield for military operations"
"Unlike the NATO Secretary-General, any polar bear knows who is the true master of the Arctic." Russia's "Free Media Network" published an article on August 31 that the "Basic State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic Region before 2035" approved by President Putin in 2020 clearly stipulates that the Russian military stationed in the Arctic region should be equipped with modern weapons and equipment and the necessary infrastructure construction should be carried out. In May, the Russian Foreign Ministry believed that "there is a danger that the Arctic will become a battlefield for military operations", which may be caused by the policies of other countries, because Finland and Sweden's application to join NATO will have a negative impact on the situation.
Hram Chishin, deputy director of the Russian Institute of Political and Military Analysis, believes that although the NATO secretary-general mentioned "wanting to strengthen its presence in the Arctic region" and rendered that "the shortest path for Russian missiles or bombers to North America is over the Arctic" and "China's expanded presence in the Arctic", so far, NATO has not yet made it clear to what extent NATO's military presence will be upgraded. Hrachshin believes that at present, Russia's military strength in the Arctic exceeds that of all NATO countries combined, but it is difficult to say how the situation will develop in the future. Russian military expert Sarkovsky also said that ice and snow in the extreme cold zone will still create major obstacles, and NATO's main players in the Arctic region , the United States and Canada , do not have a strong fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers. "People remember how their nuclear submarines were trapped in ice in 2018 when the Americans conducted a military exercise in the Arctic code-named 'Operation Icefield,'" he added. ”
Russia's "Izvestia" recently quoted Russian military historian Branov as saying that NATO is trying to "seize" the Arctic shipping lanes from Russia and get dividends from it. "NATO may establish year-round naval bases in Canada's Arctic and northern Norway and try to build an armed fleet of icebreakers," Branov analyzed. In short, NATO just wants to strengthen its military presence in the Arctic, revise the existing agreement, and do whatever is good for them. They also keep an eye on the large offshore oil and gas fields in the Arctic. ”
In fact, according to the report of The Russian "Red Star" TV, in April 2021, the United States and Norway signed an agreement on the construction of US military bases, including 3 air bases and 2 naval bases. In this way, the United States has 8 military bases on the Mainland in the Arctic, plus 19 air and naval bases in the REGION in the NATO allies Denmark (5), Norway (5), and Iceland (1). If the United States can convince Sweden and Finland, which are going to join NATO, they will be given nine more military bases.
In the view of Russian military expert Klincevich, NATO is very worried about Russia's existing lead in the Arctic. "Russia has established military bases in the Arctic that operate year-round and around the clock, and NATO is just beginning to consider such issues," he analyzed. Russia has a complete set of weapon systems adapted to fighting in the cold conditions of the Arctic, while NATO's traditional weapons and equipment cannot be used here at all. In addition, Russia's experience in the use of civilian technology in the Arctic region is also very rich. At present, the Russian Northern Fleet has 41 submarines (8 of which are equipped with ballistic missiles) and 38 surface ships, including the aircraft carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov" that is being repaired. In addition, the Northern Fleet is staffed with mobile infantry units and marines stationed in the border areas bordering Norway. The Russian ground forces deployed in the Arctic were equipped with weapons specifically designed for operations in the Arctic, including the "Armor" - SA Polar Air Defense System and the T-80BVM tank. Sokolov, vice president of the Russian Institute of Geopolitical Studies, said that Russia plans to restore more than 10 airfields in the Arctic region, which can be used by a variety of warplanes. At the same time, the "Arctic Clover" military base built by Russia in the Arctic is a unique fully automated military base, and even in complete isolation, 150 soldiers there can live for a year and a half. In the spring of 2021, for the first time, three nuclear submarines of the Russian Navy broke through the Arctic ice at the same time, indicating that the Russian military has a strong strike capability in the Arctic region.
The New York Times reported in March that as geopolitics enter a period of accelerated turmoil, the scramble for sovereignty and resources in the Arctic will become more tense, and "the increase in U.S. military exercises in Alaska is a response to Russia's increasing military provocations in the Arctic in recent years." In response to the escalation of sanctions by Western countries, some members of the Russian State Duma even proposed to "reclaim Russia's sovereignty over Alaska."
The strategic value of arctic shipping lanes is higher than the economic value
After the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the BBC wrote in the headline "Is the Arctic Region of North America Vulnerable to Russian Influence?" Canadian government officials and security experts warn that sovereignty and security in the Arctic region will also face threats from Russia, and that Canada, a member of the Arctic Council, is not ready. According to their analysis, Russia's threat to the Canadian Arctic region can include many forms, from small-scale conflicts, raids on Canadian Arctic military facilities to submarines attacking the Arctic Ocean. In the event of a conflict, Russia will likely use its superiority in missiles to attack, and Canada's defense capabilities are very limited and need to be improved as soon as possible.
The Arctic Council is made up of eight countries whose territories are in the Arctic Circle, of which the United States and Russia have the greatest influence in Arctic affairs, followed by Canada, Denmark, Norway, and the relatively weaker finland, Sweden and Iceland. The first five countries are often referred to internationally as the "Arctic Five". After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Western countries imposed severe sanctions on Russia, and they also affected Arctic affairs. On March 3 this year, the United States and Canada and seven other countries said that they would temporarily suspend participating in all meetings of the Arctic Council and its subsidiary bodies, and in June, these countries announced that they would resume work without Russian participation in the project.
Dong Limin, a polar scholar at the School of International Affairs and Public Administration of ocean university of China, told the Global Times that in May this year, Chinese scholars and scholars from the Danish Institute of International Studies had an online exchange to discuss the future of the Arctic Council in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. At that time, danish scholars expressed that they did not want the Arctic Council to "shut down". In fact, for the Nordic countries such as Denmark, despite the importance attached to coordination with NATO on strategic and security issues, they have no intention of abandoning contacts and cooperation with Russia, especially in the low political field.
"Some scientists fear that by the summer of 2040, the Arctic Ocean will be completely free of ice." A report on Russia's e-news network last November undoubtedly raised concerns about how much the Arctic shipping lanes will have on the world economy as the global climate warms. The Arctic region is rich in oil and gas resources, and its advantages in waterway resources and fishery resources are becoming increasingly obvious due to climate change. The Arctic Sea Route includes the Northeast Passage, the Northwest Passage and the Central Passage. According to Leonkov, editor-in-chief of Russia's "National Arsenal" magazine, the contradictions between the United States and Russia around the Northeast Passage are more likely to intensify. In the view of experts studying the Arctic issue, the future struggle between the United States and Russia over the right to develop and utilize arctic shipping routes is also a potential risk point that may lead to conflicts between NATO and Russia. In addition, both Canada and Russia are strengthening their control of the Northwest and North-East Passages through interpretations that favor the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, among others.
Barabanov, an expert at Russia's Higher University of Economics, acknowledged that in addition to the already started scramble for Arctic resources, military tensions in the Arctic may intensify. This is due to global warming and the possibility of using the Arctic Ocean for military purposes, that is, the situation here will also become more complicated.
It is worth mentioning that when the Suez Canal was blocked last year, the topic of whether the Arctic shipping lanes could be replaced in the future was also hotly speculated. However, Dong Limin believes that in general, the strategic value of the Arctic shipping lanes is higher than the economic value, which can be used as an alternative to the traditional shipping lanes in a state of emergency, but cannot replace the Suez Canal. Reasons include the limited number of ports that shorten their voyages and time through Arctic shipping lanes, and if they fail to significantly reduce costs, their attractiveness for commercial navigation will be reduced, and a large number of ships will still choose traditional shipping routes; Arctic shipping lanes have the advantage of reducing the cost of some commercial voyages, but the scale of trade that can enjoy this advantage is relatively small, resulting in the passage not being able to fully utilize its value.
Arctic governance also depends on "Arctic stakeholders"
The escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has made "anti-Russian" almost become the "political correctness" of Western countries. In this context, it is inevitable that the cooperation between Western countries and Russia in the Arctic will be affected in the short term, and the near "suspension" of the work of the Arctic Council is the most obvious example. However, Dong Limin told the Global Times that Arctic governance issues, including environmental protection, climate change response, maritime security cooperation, etc., do not require Russia's participation, and scientific cooperation is usually the basis for promoting these issues. In addition, the Russian side has repeatedly expressed its willingness to resume cooperation in the Arctic Council, and the Nordic Arctic countries are also willing to maintain cooperation with Russia in the low political field.
No matter how complex the situation, Russia will not allow NATO countries to touch its core interests in the Arctic. According to Russia's REN TELEVISION, 18% of Russia's land area is in the Arctic region, inhabited by more than 2 million people. The Arctic currently holds 13 percent of the world's undischeld oil reserves and 30 percent of its untapped natural gas reserves, in addition to important uranium, rare earth minerals, gold, diamond deposits and fisheries. More than 80 percent of Russia's flammable gas and 17 percent of its oil (including condensate gas) reserves are located in the Arctic.
According to the Russian "Izvestia" reported on April 13, Russian President Putin said at the Arctic Development Conference that Russia believes that the Arctic is not a place to carry out geopolitical conspiracies, and stressed that in the context of Western sanctions, Russia needs to pay special attention to Arctic-related projects and plans.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Trutnev also said that Russia has implemented more than 460 countries-supported projects in the Arctic region, creating jobs for more than 30,000 people. The implementation of the largest economic projects in the Arctic region ensures the formation of demand for the country's high-tech and science-intensive products, and also stimulates the production of such products by the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
In response to the remarks made by the NATO secretary-general, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Eskov shot back: "The Arctic is the area where we engage in economic activities, productive activities, and activities to ensure Russia's security, and it is also our core area of interest." Cooperation with other countries, especially with China, is solely for the further development of the Arctic and does not and cannot pose a threat to any other country or alliance. Dr. Chudenovsky, a doctor of Russian economics, believes that peace in the Arctic should be better protected now.
Since 2014, Dong Limin has assisted in organizing and participating in the Sino-Russian Arctic Forum co-sponsored by ocean university of China and St. Petersburg University in Russia for many consecutive years. He told the Global Times reporter that from an academic point of view, Russian scholars attach great importance to the economic opportunities brought by warming climate to the Arctic region. Among them, especially the utilization of shipping routes and the development of oil and gas resources, their focus is also in line with Russia's national Arctic strategic goals. According to reports, the relative lack of funds is the main obstacle to Russia's Arctic development strategy. At the Arctic Forum held in Moscow in 2017, Russia also consciously invited local officials and business people to participate in bridging bilateral cooperation. A number of scholars from the Russian Far East expressed their willingness to welcome investment by Chinese enterprises. In recent years, in addition to shipping routes and resources, the areas of cooperation discussed by Chinese and Russian scholars have gradually expanded to scientific research, technology, education, tourism, fisheries and other aspects.
China is also an "Arctic stakeholder." Dong Limin believes that Denmark and other Nordic countries have a relatively contradictory attitude toward China's participation in Arctic affairs. On the one hand, China's advantages in capital and market can provide an important driving force for the economic development of the Arctic region, encourage China to participate in Arctic affairs, and balance the strength of the United States and Russia, which will help enhance the discourse power of the Nordic countries. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the United States already seeing China as its main strategic competitor, the attitude of these countries toward China is inevitably affected. However, he believes that the realization of Arctic governance through international mechanisms is the focus of attention of "Arctic stakeholders" such as Denmark, because as small and medium-sized countries, only through international mechanisms can they maximize their influence in the process of participating in Arctic affairs.