The author | Xu Na
There is an ancient Greek proverb: the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows only one big thing. The British philosopher Isaiah Berlin once borrowed this metaphor to say that thinkers can also be divided into two categories: "fox-type" thinkers with a wide range of interests and many problems, and "hedgehog", thinkers who focus on a big problem and propose a system of thought. By this standard, The Jewish economist Odaed Geller, a professor of economics at Brown University, may be classified as the latter, a hedgehog thinker. And the problem he wants to stab is the puzzle of wealth growth and inequality in human history.
In an age accustomed to growth, you may not realize that not growing, or "stagnating," is the norm that has dominated much of human social history. After all, in the more than 300,000 years of human history since the emergence of mankind, it is only in the last 200 years that we have witnessed a significant increase in per capita wealth compared with the previous 14 times, and a multiple increase in life expectancy that has more than doubled.
For this "stagnation" state, the British scholar Malthus discussed in the 1798 "Population Theory", he believes that the increase in income and wealth brought about by technological progress will eventually be offset by the ensuing population growth, so people's per capita income and living standards will stagnate near a baseline, and the ideal state of prosperity cannot be achieved.
Malthus's hypothesis was indeed confirmed – until the advent of the era of industrialization. What is the driving force behind humanity to cross this "Malthusian trap"? Odaid Geller, an economics professor at Brown University in the United States, is fascinated by this question, and in the first part of his new book "Human Journey", he focuses on answering this question, and he has found through research that it is the decline in fertility brought about by the technological revolution, as well as the family's emphasis on children's education, the formation of human capital, etc. Jointly promoted the "demographic transition", heralding the arrival of a modern society with improved living standards and continuous growth, and also helping mankind successfully escape the Malthusian trap.
In more than 30 years of research, O'Daed Geller has also developed his own set of "unified growth theory", which attempts to consistently explain the problem of wealth growth and global wealth distribution from a historical perspective. This unified theory of growth believes that the two wheels of change, population size and demographic structure, act on the powerful flywheel of technological progress, and together transport humanity to the modern world where growth is the norm. The initial conditions for the development of different countries, coupled with different institutional and cultural factors, act on these wheels of change, resulting in differences in the degree of prosperity and wealth inequality between different countries and regions.
Despite the pressure of china's negative population growth, Odaid Geller argues that the issue does not need to be overly worried in the long run, and that the contribution of human capital formation and technological change will free the economy from earlier models that were overly dependent on population sizes.
Brown University economics professor Auded Gaylor
Recently, Odaed Geller, who is considered a strong contender for the Nobel Prize in economics because of this "unified growth theory", gave a video interview with 36Kr about this pioneering theory, his new book "The Journey of Mankind" and China's economic growth and population issues. The following is an interview conversation between 36Kr and Geller, edited:
36Kr: Can you tell us a little bit about the "unified growth theory" and how it relates to your new book, The Journey of Man?
O'Daed Gehrer: The Unified Theory of Growth explores or reveals the "wheel of change" that runs through the course of human history. The development of this theory stems from the belief that if global inequality is to be understood in all its aspects, it is necessary to have a unified theory that reflects the dominant force behind this process of inequality formation, and that it can grasp the important role of the historical factors that led to the current inequality problem and even the factors of the prehistoric era.
Based on the unified theory of growth, Journey to Humanity offers a revolutionary perspective on the origins of wealth and inequality, namely that the historical and prehistoric factors that contribute to the wealth inequality we see today date back hundreds, thousands, or even tens of thousands of years ago.
My new book, Journeys to Humanity, explores the evolution of human society since the birth of humanity in Africa 300,000 years ago, and it focuses on solving the two core and fundamental puzzles surrounding this development, namely the growth puzzle and the inequality puzzle.
Growth Puzzle – What is the reason for growth after 300,000 years of stagnation in the last 200 years? Why has per capita wealth/income increased 14 times and life expectancy more than doubled in the last 200 years?
The Inequality Puzzle – What are the causes of the significant disparities in living standards between countries and regions around the world? Why has this inequality increased to such an extent over the past 200 years?
36Kr: Tell us about your process of writing this book and your academic research over the years. Wealth inequality and growth, diversity and economic development are all topics of study, right?
O'DED GELLER: Well, the book Journey to Humanity is actually the culmination of my research in recent years.
I was born and raised in Jerusalem, and living in this city gave me a natural sensitivity and interest in understanding the role of historical roots in shaping human behavior, religion, ethnicity, cultural diversity and human development and prosperity.
During my academic career, I was interested in wealth inequality between countries, and this interest led me to the field of economic growth. But my research is significantly different from the dominant research trends of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The latter study pays more attention to the common laws and convergence of economic growth, which assumes that historical factors and native conditions are not important in the long run. My research is more focused on the consideration of objective historical factors, focusing on understanding the role of historical roots and initial conditions in shaping the fate of countries.
Over the course of my research career, I have developed a unified theory of growth based on contemporary research into the impact of inequality on wealth growth. I have made some cornerstone contributions to understanding the interaction between cultural adaptation (cultural factors) and development and growth processes. In my recent research, I have focused on exploring the relationship between population diversity and thriving growth.
36Kr: What was your most important finding on inequality during your academic career? Did you find anything unexpected?
O'Daed Gehrer: One of my fundamental findings is that the global inequalities that we see today can actually be traced back to forces that existed in the distant past. One of the things that surprised me most in this regard was that the movement of humans from Africa 60,000 to 90,000 years ago had an important impact on the degree of population diversity on a global scale, and it could account for 20% of the causes of current wealth inequality.
36Kr: You describe a lot in your book about how humans escaped the Malthusian trap, but in today's China, there is a concern that we have fallen into the "low fertility trap" because the fertility rate continues to decline, the Chinese will usher in negative growth by 2025, and people are worried about the shortage of labor and the problem of old-age care. But according to the theory you put forward in the book, the demographic transformation brought about by the low fertility rate and the formation of human capital should be a good thing, so in your opinion, China's "population problem" is still a problem worth worrying about?
O'Deid Gehrer: I don't think China's population problem deserves undue worry. Because, as we have witnessed in the last 200 years, the decline in fertility and the reduction in the number of children will enable existing children to receive better education and enjoy more adequate educational resources, and this increased human investment can form effective human capital and lay the foundation for scientific and technological progress. So we will see a more efficient transformation of human capital in the contribution of science and technology, and we will witness the rapid progress of science and technology, and this technological progress will be able to make up for the disadvantages of the previous reduction in the overall labor force, that is, we can do more with fewer people and do better and more efficiently, and say goodbye to the economic growth model that was too dependent on the number of people.
36Kr: You mention in the book that "we will see that the cultural characteristics that best promote growth will include attitudes, norms and habits such as a high emphasis on education, maintaining a future-oriented mindset, appreciating the so-called 'entrepreneurial spirit'". What kind of mentality do you mean by "future-oriented mindset"?
O'Daed Gehrer: The "future-oriented mindset" here refers to a more long-term vision that generally originates in farming communities that spend a long time in farming to enjoy the fruits of the harvest. Therefore, it is also a cultural characteristic and mentality that has a lot to do with geographical conditions. A future-oriented, long-term mindset is one of the most important cultural characteristics of economic prosperity and influences our attitudes toward saving, educating, developing and adopting new technologies. Considering the role of this cultural identity in the formation of human and physical capital, scientific and technological progress, and economic growth, scholars consider it to be one of the basic determinants of the wealth level of countries.
36Kr: We can see the shadow of "A Brief History of Mankind" and "Guns, Germs and Steel" in your book "Journey to Mankind", what do you think is the difference between your book and the latter two?
O'Daed Gehrer: My journey to humanity consists of two main parts, the former of which focuses on the development and wealth growth of human society as a whole since the birth of human beings in Africa 300,000 years ago. The perspective of this part is somewhat similar to that of A Brief History of Mankind, but it is fundamentally different from that of A Brief History of Mankind in terms of basic concepts and academics, because this book is based on the "unified growth theory", which points to the "wheel of change" that runs through the entire history of mankind, and each basic module of this theory is based on empirical and rigorous academic research and analysis. On the contrary, many of the important twists and arguments in A Brief History of Mankind are more speculative judgments than evidence-based research conclusions. In addition, Journey to Humanity highlights the demographic change factor that plays a central role in understanding the leap across the Malthusian trap – a factor that accounts for 99.9% of humanity's entire history from stagnation to growth. And these studies of the relationship between demographic change and growth are not mentioned in A Brief History of Mankind.
Looking at the second part of my book, Journey to Humanity, it focuses on the root causes of wealth inequality between countries, emphasizing the role of institutional, cultural, geographical, and even demographic diversity in the uneven development of countries over the past 200 years. While acknowledging the influence of historical factors, research in this area naturally deduces that if the gap between rich and poor countries is to be narrowed, policies that promote gender equality, inclusiveness and diversity need to be targeted. Similarly, this analysis of the historical roots of wealth inequality between nations is absent from A Brief History of Mankind.
But as Lewis Dartnell puts it: "If you enjoy reading A Brief History of Humanity, then you'll love Journey to Humanity too." ”
Turning to Guns, Germs, and Steel, Jared Diamond (author of Guns, Germs, and Steel) and Yuval Harari (author of A Brief History of Mankind) instead tried to explore the roots of inequality. But what he argues in Guns, Germs, and Steel is that the timing of a country's transition to an agrarian society has a profound effect on a country's wealth— but this is a general and intuitive view. My empirical research shows that although the transition to agricultural farming in various countries had an important impact on economic development, this effect only lasted until about 1500 years, and the development since then and even now has little to do with the transition to an agrarian society. That is, for policy formulation in developing countries, this factor may not be taken into account. In contrast, I make clear in my book that demographic diversity, geography, cultural identity, and institutional factors are essential to understanding today's uneven development.
36Kr: Can you tell us about what you explain in your book with the unified growth theory that China was almost the world's leading development leader until 1500, and then gradually lagged behind the West?
Odaid Geller: From a historical and geographical point of view, China's geographical proximity has led to China's political unity and easy overall management, which has been a favorable factor for China's economic and technological development before the Industrial Revolution. However, after the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the original favorable factors gradually became obstacles, because in promoting the rapid development of technology, the role of competition and cultural plasticity began to prevail, and an overly uniform and flexible culture would not be conducive to innovation and change in the field of science and technology, so we see that in the modern centuries, China was surpassed by the West, which was more geographically loose, more inconvenient but also more diverse, with a stronger sense of competition and innovation.
36Kr: You mention in the book, "In fact, China did prosper quite well in the pre-industrial era. But as technological progress accelerated over the next five centuries, China's relatively high homogeneity seemed to slow its shift to a modern period of growth, leading to a shift in economic dominance to a more diverse Europe and later North America. The current level of diversity that is most favorable for modern economic development should be close to the current situation in the United States. Please explain this point in depth.
O'Deid Gehrer: I think human diversity is a powerful determinant of economic prosperity. On the one hand, diversity can enhance the vitality of society, promote division of labor and competition and encourage innovation, so it is beneficial to economic development; Diversity, on the other hand, can also lead to disagreements and weaken interpersonal trust and social cohesion, which is detrimental to the prosperity of the economy, so it is important to find a balance. According to my research, many countries in the world today are lacking in the balance of diversity, such as Ethiopia is too diverse, she should use appropriate policies to enhance social cohesion, while Bolivia is a typical example of lack of diversity, if it can increase diversity, then the country's per capita income is even expected to increase by 5 times. My research has found that the most favorable diversity model in the world for economic development is close to the degree of diversity in the United States, that is, a moderate and near-equilibrium state.
36 Kr: What do you want this book to bring to the reader? Why is it important to look back at human history?
O'Deid Geller: I hope that this book will make people aware of the undercurrents and deep development dynamics beneath the surface of social development, explore the impact of historical factors on our lives today by looking back at history, and while realizing that the factors that support development are still in play, they can also become more aware that promoting educational equity, gender equality and inclusive diversity is crucial for the sustainable development of the human species in the future and to alleviating the gap between rich and poor between countries.
36Kr: We do feel from your book a generally optimistic tone, that is, from the course of human development, we can draw a reasonable optimistic expectation of the future of technological and economic sustainability, but how do you think about climate change, one of the main development challenges we face today? Are you still optimistic about the prospects of humanity responding to climate change?
O'Daed Gehrer: I'm not optimistic about the current climate change situation, but I can say I'm hopeful. For in view of the earth-shaking changes in technological conditions and living standards in the past especially in the past 200 years, we can see that the driving force for sustained economic development is still in play, such as the permanent decline in fertility, the development of human capital, the development of education and gender equality, and the continuous progress of science and technology. So we have reason to believe that driven by these factors, humanity can find a technological path to overcome the adverse consequences of climate change – just as in the face of the huge challenge of COVID-19, humanity has reached its full potential to develop effective vaccines at an unprecedented rate.
But the process of realizing this vision and overcoming the daunting challenges of climate change will never be easy: greater innovation is needed to expand human capital through greater investment in education, gender-equality policies and funding, and collaboration based on respect for individual differences. So I am hopeful about human response to climate and environmental change, and I am not blindly optimistic.
Title: The Journey of Man: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality by Odaed Geller, Publisher: CITIC Publishing Group