Source: WeChat public account "Daoda number" (WeChat public number ID: daoda1997)
Today's market, the track stocks have been greatly adjusted, and the "stock god" Buffett has reduced his stake by a little to recover the cost, while the investors of A shares have suffered huge losses.
Of course, the reason for the decline can not be blamed on the "stock god", after all, the new energy vehicle this wave of adjustment has not been a day or two, but the prosperity of photovoltaics, today's decline is very large, the decline in many of the list are photovoltaic-related stocks. The early rebound was too strong, coupled with the end of the disclosure of the mid-report, so that some track stocks with huge gains were "exposed", the performance deviated from the valuation, and it was normal for funds to run and cash.
For the new energy piece,'s view is mainly to see the next wide box shock, follow-up if the box is more clearly constructed, it is possible to look for the middle line opportunity on the lower edge, but this is not a problem to consider now, to be patient to observe and wait for the trend to be clear before making a decision.
Let's talk about the short-term situation, take the photovoltaic plate as an example, the current plate index has fallen to the vicinity of the dense transaction area below, and may be adjusted again, it has the ability to stop the fall and stabilize, and the short-term trading ability can try the opportunity in a small position.
However, under the general decline in the market today, it is not only ordinary investors like us who are lonely, but also a private equity tycoon. According to media reports, the private equity tycoon has three more products touching the early warning line (net value of 0.8 yuan).
At the beginning of the year, the big guy cut meat and looked at the A shares, thinking that there would be opportunities until the third quarter, but the track stocks "did not talk about martial virtue", from the beginning of May crazy bumps, the big guy did not bottom out at the beginning, until July, may be too much to stand the rise, only rushed in to chase high, because his product net value curve in July appeared significant fluctuations.
This is actually a signal, the big guy can't help but chase up and kill the fall, usually it is a sign that the market inflection point is approaching; Another signal is the number of institutional research reports, and when the number of tickets blown in a certain direction occupies an overwhelming advantage, such as more than 80%, it must be particularly careful.
Yesterday I was still talking to you about the photos shared by netizens, a sub-forum of a seller's consumption theme was cold, and as a result, today's big consumption has risen up; In addition, medicine is doing well. It really verifies the old saying of investment: "Buy where no one cares, sell when people are boiling".
The shareholders of the blue-chip white horse suffered for more than a year and finally ate a meal of "dumplings". After the disclosure of the A-share listed companies, the overall feeling with people is that the performance of the big blue chip and the China-listed Internet is generally justified, at least much better than expected, and enterprises such as Vanke and Midea Group have also achieved growth; Insurance also has the meaning of exceeding expectations, and it makes sense to fix it.
However, from yesterday to now, the market has given people a strange feeling. For example, last night, many Chinese stocks announced their performance, which can be said to be beyond expectations, and the result was smashed; For example, today's A-share market also has low-level stocks with fairly good performance, and the result is to open high and go low, and also end with a green disk.
We can analyze it from the perspective of the capital game, but fortunately, this strange disk has finally come to an end after the disclosure of the interim report. In the end, it is still a problem of market sentiment, and there is insufficient financial confidence.
This lack of confidence can also be seen in today's low-level blue-chip stocks. Big consumption, big finance, say they are strong, they are stronger than the overall market. Are they saying that they have declared the rise of low-level stocks? Maybe the strength is not enough, more of a manifestation of risk aversion after the funds come out of the high stocks. When the track stock fell in the first two days, the weighted stock should take the initiative to strengthen, that is the perfect switch. It's not a big problem to go this way now, but it's not perfect.
Imperfection means that even switching will not happen overnight, and it will not immediately rise. Will big consumption become the main line of the next rotation? Probably a big question mark. But for now, it's a good transition direction. If you want to participate, it is still based on short-term thinking.
Big finance is doing well, but it's not strong enough. Yesterday highlighted the brokerage stocks, the securities sector index is indeed significantly different from before, has been a narrow range of 14 trading days, this kind of sideways release strength is to be explosive, do not rule out the possibility of pulling out the Yang line.
In terms of short-term sentiment, the number of stocks that are up and down continues to decrease, and the market height has dropped to 3 consecutive boards, which are all faults. Under normal circumstances, the height of the market's continuous board has dropped to 3 consecutive plates, which is a freezing point of emotion, and there will be a greater probability of warming and repairing in the short term.
In addition, there is also a good phenomenon in the short-term, especially yesterday's Guoguang Electrical Appliances, the impact on short-term funds is relatively negative. Today there are individual stocks that dare to "oppose nuclear", and black sesame is staged in the intraday, and if the stock continues to perform tomorrow, it is obviously beneficial for the emotional drive.
Combining today's disk, feels that the main points are as follows:
First of all, today's volume fell, releasing a large short momentum. If the follow-up fall does not go down, the rebound will be stronger. The impact of the Shanghai Composite Index on the roller coaster today is obviously there, and the number of stocks in the two cities that have fallen by more than 5% has reached more than 800, which is also a rare situation in recent times.
However, the market volume fell, generally does not feel that it is a bad thing, which shows that the strength of the release of the bears is relatively large, as long as there is no more than expected bearishness, this decline is difficult to continue.
Today's trend structure of the Shanghai Composite Index, currently near the key position, does not rule out that there will be a downward movement tomorrow, but as long as the decline can not release the strength, the short-term probability will rebound, and the strength of the rebound may be greater, the Shanghai Index can temporarily see near 3300 points. Considering the structure and weight of the small and medium-cap trend, if it rebounds, it is not ruled out that there will be a resonance.
Second, be patient and wait for the emergence of a new main line. Recent signs of money being pulled out of track stocks are already evident. Today, the Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index have seen a significant increase, and this kind of repositioning can be seen as a signal. However, due to the fact that the plates that have changed in recent days are only different, the continuous effect of making money is not good, and it still needs to be observed.
Whether it can be switched successfully, or unknown, you can go to the light warehouse to try, but do not aggravate the position to chase the rise and kill the fall. The abnormal sector can be remembered first, and more funds can wait for the direction of the plate to be clear before following.
To borrow the view of a big man: investment needs to be "with", "with" is not a competition; Change with the times, change with the trend, seek truth from facts, self-correction. At this time, it is still heavy and hard to go against the market, which is undoubtedly unable to get along with yourself and money. Again, the cost of following the market is always minimal. It's better to miss than to make a mistake!
(Zhang Daoda)
According to the latest regulations of the relevant state departments, this note does not involve any operational suggestions, and the risk of entering the market is at your own risk.
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