If there are not many doubts about the data disclosed by companies such as Gurui Watt and Shouhang Xinneng, the problem of suspected fraud of overseas sales data of Chinese inverter companies may not be exposed so thoroughly.
The movie "The Wolf of Wall Street" tells the story of how to profit from the capital market through counterfeiting
As large as an industry, as small as a company, if even the sales data is distorted, it is impossible to develop healthily.
Conniving at data fraud is tantamount to helping a small number of institutions and individuals to take advantage of the opportunity of photovoltaic storms to fish in muddy waters. The last to pay the bill is the participants in the capital market, and it is those who suffer losses that insist on taking the right path.
Recently, the carbon catcher got a group of customs data of Chinese photovoltaic companies through formal channels.
Customs data, that is, the import and export statistics generated by the customs in the performance of import and export trade statistics functions, are the most authentic customs transaction records of buyers and sellers in various countries, that is, the summary of customs bill of lading information.
The data fields mainly include: supplier information, time, order number, buyer information, HS code, unit price, total price, port of origin, destination country, payee, etc.
In 1966, for the first time, the United States made all customs data publicly available worldwide. So far, a total of 38 countries around the world have opened up customs import and export data. As shown in the figure below, it mainly includes: 5 countries in North America; 10 countries in South America; 4 European countries; 9 Asian countries; 10 countries in Africa.
The biggest feature of customs data is that they are all real transaction records, and there is almost no possibility of manipulation.
Although customs data cannot cover all countries, it also includes the United States, India, Brazil, Vietnam, which are countries with fast growth rates and relatively large volumes of photovoltaic installations.
These data do not reflect the whole picture, but can be used as a reference to judge the authenticity of overseas sales data of Chinese inverter companies.
01 After the statistics, I was a little suspicious of my eyes
According to irena statistics from the International Renewable Energy Agency, in 2021, the world's new photovoltaic installed capacity will be 133GW, China's 53GW, and the rest of the world's installed capacity of about 80GW.
The carbon catcher summarizes the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in 2021 in various countries in the world, also as a reference document, but limited to space, and is attached to the end of this article in the form of pictures.
Now, we conduct a preliminary study on the overseas sales data of three Chinese inverter companies with a high proportion of overseas sales, Namewart, Goodway and Shouhang Xinneng.
The carbon catcher statistically summarized the export data of the above three companies in the above 38 countries that have published customs data in 2021, as follows:
Guriwat
In the customs data we have, Gurivat has only 13 orders in Brazil in 2021, and the buyers are Allo Componentes Eletronicos Ltda.
There is no quotation in these 13 closing orders, but there is a product model and weight. According to the customs price estimate of the same weight of its similar products, the value of the 13 orders is about $1.3 million, and even if there is a deviation, it should theoretically not exceed $2 million.
According to the prospectus, Gurui watt said that its first and fifth largest customers are Brazilian customers, with a total sales volume of 730 million yuan in 2021. Compared with our estimates, the difference between the two is more than 70 times.
Due to the complexity of customs clearance in Brazil, it is not excluded that Gurivat will be exported to Brazil through other company entities or ports.
The reality is that even if we take all the data at our disposal, it will not be able to meet the annual sales of Gurivat's world's largest customer in Brazil.
For the full year of 2021, Guruivat sold a total of 2,397 units in the above 38 countries (including Brazil), with a total trade volume of $43,437,784. Based on the median exchange rate of 6.4515 US dollars in 2021, the total sales of Guruiwat in the above countries and regions are about 280 million yuan.
According to the prospectus of Gurui watt, in 2021, the company's overseas sales revenue was 2.4 billion yuan.
If calculated on this basis, the trade volume of the above 38 countries only accounts for 11.69% of their total overseas sales. Did the remaining nearly 90% go to Europe? Moreover, these orders also include some of Gurivat's orders in Europe and Asia.
In other words, the sum of all the countries mentioned above, including Brazil, is less than half of the annual sales of 656 million of its largest customer in Brazil mentioned in the prospectus.
In terms of Gurivat's influence in the international market, the carbon number is judged to be that its customs bill of lading data may be distorted. Perhaps, Guruivat's sales figures in Brazil were achieved by setting up factories there, or by using other corporate names instead of Growatt when doing business with Brazil. However, we have not found any corroboration.
Guriwat poster
In addition, according to Guriwat's external promotional poster, the company's shipments in the Indian market in 2021 are close to 1GW.
According to the statistics of the product models and unit prices it exports to India, the price per W is estimated to be between 0.18-0.35 yuan. Shipments of 1GW would mean 180 million to 350 million in sales. The volume of Indian customs bill of lading trade in 2021 is summarized, which is about 108 million yuan, and there is still a certain gap with this data.
According to the official website of Gurui watt, the company "ranks first in global household photovoltaic inverter shipments, and the second in global hybrid energy storage inverter shipments".
If 108 million yuan is used, corresponding to the 1GW shipment of Gurui watt, the market price of these two types of products is much higher than that of centralized photovoltaic inverters, and the price of a single W cannot be 0.108 yuan. In other words, either we don't have all the statistics on its sales in India, or we have doubts about the shipment of 1GW. Due to time and energy constraints, the author has not added up the power of all products in its India order.
The difference between the two data may objectively reflect the proportional relationship between the actual sales and the advertised sales.
Example of a partial customs bill of lading in Gurivat 2021 (in USD)
Goodway and Shouhang New Energy, the data is similar to the situation of Gurui watt, the following is only a slight statistic, no longer expanded.
Goodway
In 2021, a total of 2,053 units were sold in the above countries and regions, with a total trade volume of US$34,904,809.1.
In 2021, the average exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar is 6.4515.
Based on this calculation, Goodway's total sales in the above 38 countries are about 225 million yuan.
In 2021, Goodway announced total overseas sales of RMB1.7 billion. The closing data that we can count together accounts for 13.24% of Goodway's overseas total annual revenue. Of course, it is not excluded that there are omissions in the information statistics of the above countries.
Example of a Partial Customs Bill of Lading in Goodway 2021 (in USD)
The first voyage of new energy
In 2021, a total of 1659 units were sold in the above countries and regions, with a total trade volume of 40,368,241.57 US dollars.
Also calculated at the median exchange rate of 6.4515 US dollars, the total sales of Beijing New Energy in the above 38 countries is about 260 million yuan (excluding that there are omitted information, resulting in inaccurate data).
According to the prospectus of Shouhang Xinneng, in 2021, the company's total overseas sales will be 1.6 billion yuan. The customs orders of Shouhang New Energy that we can count account for about 16.28% of its total overseas sales.
Example of a partial customs bill of lading for the first flight of the new energy 2021 (in USD)
The above statistical results, the carbon number even suspects that in theory, there can be such a huge difference.
Since the customs data of European countries are basically not open, is it a Chinese inverter enterprise that first exports to a European country, and then re-exports to North America and Brazil from there?
All kinds of doubts can only be left to the above three companies to answer themselves.
02 Inverter data fraud has a long history
Previously, the Carbon Rush had questioned the overseas sales data of Shouhang New Energy ("Inverter Against the Sky, Forged to Italy") and Guriwat ("Shouhang New Energy, Gurui watt overseas sales data battle"). In later studies, we found that we were not the first to ask similar questions.
Two years ago, the authoritative media "China Energy News" questioned Huawei and Sungrow Power, the two largest companies in the inverter industry.
The article states: "The data released by both companies themselves shows that they both achieved global cumulative shipments of more than 100 million kilowatts (100GW) in 2019... However, the statistics of third-party consulting agencies are a different picture. In the report released by Wood Mackenzie, as of the end of 2019, the cumulative shipment of Huawei inverters was less than 110 million kilowatts, which was about 8 million kilowatts different from the company's self-reported data. In IHS Markit's statistics, this figure is only 86.4 million kilowatts, and the difference is as high as more than 30 million kilowatts. As for Sunshine Power, Wood McKenzie pointed out that from 2012 to 2019, the cumulative shipment volume of the company was about 79.7 million kilowatts, and the statistical results of IHS Markit were also quite different from the company's self-reported "breaking 100 million kilowatts". ”
In this regard, the staff of Sungrow Power Source replied to China Energy News at that time that "the company felt that the problem was too sensitive and it was not suitable for speaking out." ”
In this regard, Dai Siyuan, a Chinese photovoltaic industry association, has admitted that the situation of inverter manufacturers falsely reporting shipments objectively exists.
According to the judgment of the carbon number, because this report touched too many core interests, under the heavy resistance, there was no relevant follow-up report, and the industry and financial media rarely followed up on it.
Reporting inverter data fraud is not a trivial matter, because it offends the economic interests of certain institutions and individuals, ranging from threats and intimidation to imprisonment. Here, I have to mention "Huawei 251 employee" Li Hongyuan.
From October 2005 to January 2018, Li Hongyuan worked at Huawei, working in the inverter sales management department before leaving.
In November 2016, Li Hongyuan reported to Huawei (inverter sales) that the business was fraudulent.
In January 2018, Li Hongyuan left his post, and due to the difference between the amount of the resignation compensation and the company, the two sides negotiated and agreed to pay Li Hongyuan a replacement compensation of 331576.73 yuan.
On March 8, 2018, after deducting taxes and fees, the amount was transferred to Li Hongyuan's account by the personal bank account of the department secretary of 304,742.98 yuan, and the transaction summary was "severance compensation for resignation".
On December 16, 2018, the Shenzhen Municipal Public Security Bureau criminally detained Li Hongyuan on suspicion of extortion, and with the approval of the procuratorate, on January 22, 2019, Li Hongyuan was arrested by the Shenzhen Municipal Public Security Bureau.
On August 22, 2019, after 251 days of detention, the Longgang District People's Procuratorate decided not to prosecute Li Hongyuan due to unclear facts of the crime and insufficient evidence.
On November 25, 2019, the Longgang District People's Procuratorate decided to compensate Li Hongyuan for state compensation.
There are many media reports on this public case. It can only be said that Li Hongyuan, who has paid a heavy price, is a "real warrior" for the data counterfeiting of China's inverter industry.
03 Huge benefits behind the sales data
Catch the carbon number has been analyzed before, in the photovoltaic industry, from silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, adhesive film, glass, brackets, backplanes have been summarized to the photovoltaic modules, the upstream and downstream links determine, the shipments of photovoltaic modules, the price is very transparent, but the inverter outside the complete industrial chain is not, although it is the "heart" of the photovoltaic power station, its industrial chain upstream and downstream are self-contained, and the installed capacity also has certain data differences.
The life of photovoltaic modules is about 25 years, but the warranty period of inverters is generally 5 years, and the design life is generally about 10 years. This leads to the fact that in addition to matching the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in a certain market, there are inverter updates that account for about 10% of the new installed capacity. That is, if a country installs 1GW in a year, in principle, there will be 1.1GW of inverter market space that year. Of course, the new and old conditions of the photovoltaic power plants in operation are different, and they cannot be completely generalized.
A station god dismantled the inverter, it feels really not high-tech, and more and more people have entered the industry
In essence, the soaring photovoltaic investment fever, especially the explosive growth of distributed photovoltaics and household photovoltaics, so that the stock price of inverter companies has soared into the sky, the industry valuation is more than 100 times, the distribution and household inverter leading enterprise Goodway is as high as 1300 times the price-earnings ratio, Hemai's price-earnings ratio is also nearly 200 times, in all the stocks in the two cities, the stock price is more than 1,000 yuan, second only to Maotai.
Catching carbon number believes that the current degree of heat in the photovoltaic industry is comparable to the Chinese real estate five or six years ago, the sales data injection problem of the inverter, and the water injection problem of the sales data of medium-sized housing enterprises with high turnover, which is also very similar.
There is an unwritten rule in the real estate industry that the financing, credit granting, rating, etc. of housing enterprises are directly related to their ranking on the top 100 rankings. 50 small and medium-sized housing enterprises that have not even entered the top 100, such low-cost funds as bank loans are generally difficult to obtain. For medium-sized housing enterprises, if financing is limited, there is no scale, and there is no future without scale. Therefore, each company did its best to rank, which led to the emergence of three lists in the industry: equity sales list, trading sales list and full-caliber sales list.
Among them, the full-caliber sales of housing enterprises refers to the cumulative value of all projects signed and sold together with joint ventures and associated companies, regardless of rights and interests and operations, that is, as long as the total sales amount of real estate in which the enterprise has participated, it is all included.
Catch the carbon number remembers that there is a housing enterprise with a scale of more than 100 billion yuan, the leverage has been put very full, but it is necessary to continue to inject water, what to do? This company takes a project with only 10% interest, and then cooperates with others, data exchange, and falsify together. In the end, the proportion of water injection exceeded the real equity sales by several times.
Postscript
Counterfeiting comes at a cost.
But when the financial cost is low enough and the risk is low enough, it is easy to become an industry problem under the temptation of interests. Practitioners always believe that the gap in water injection in the past can be filled through the future development of enterprises. As everyone knows, it is difficult to perform performance in the market, but it is easy to fake data. Under the influence of the industry's counterfeiting atmosphere, the gap is getting bigger and bigger every year.
Of course, we still can't fully conclude that there is a widespread fraud in sales data in the mainland inverter industry. But from the analysis of the new companies, there are at least major suspicious points.
The above analysis, such as errors and omissions in the data, one-sided and defective in statistical methods, hope to get in touch with us as soon as possible, in order to modify and correct.
(This article does not constitute any investment advice.) ）
Attached: 2021 PV installed capacity statistics of the International Renewable Energy Agency in various countries in the world (unit: MW)