US President Biden shot consecutively!
The U.S. military has carried out airstrikes against Iranian-backed militant groups in Syria
According to CCTV news, on August 24, local time, according to local media reports in the United States, the US Central Command announced that the US military carried out a precise air strike on iran-backed armed groups in Syria on August 23, under the instructions of President Biden.
Colonel Joe Buccino, head of communications at U.S. Central Command, said in a statement that the targets of the airstrikes were some infrastructure in the eastern Syrian city of Deir Ezzor believed to be used by affiliates of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Biden announced the largest military aid to Ukraine
According to the Russian Satellite News Agency reported on August 24, US President Joe Biden announced the largest military aid totaling about $3 billion for Ukraine.
"I am proud to announce our largest security-area assistance to date: about $2.98 billion in weapons and equipment that will be provided within the framework of the Security-Area Assistance Ukraine Initiative," the white House website said. ”
The new package of military assistance will give Ukraine access to air defense systems, artillery systems and ammunition, anti-drone systems and radars to enable the country to "continue to defend itself for a long time," the news said.
Russia has previously sent notes to all countries involved for its supply of weapons to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that any cargo containing Ukrainian weapons would be a legitimate target for Russia.
U.S. Department of Defense: The latest military assistance to Ukraine will begin to be contracted in the coming months
On August 24, local time, Colin Kahl, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy affairs, said that the latest military assistance to Ukraine through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) of about $3 billion in military assistance will begin to be finalized in the coming months.
Carr said the latest military aid comes from funding from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which means the aid will be provided and produced by industry partners rather than directly from the U.S. Department of Defense's weapons stockpile, so it could take "several months to finalize the contract, and in some cases it will take a year, two or three years to arrive in Ukraine."
The US Department of Defense announced on the 24th that the United States will provide ukraine with additional security assistance worth nearly $3 billion. This is the largest single security assistance provided by the United States to Ukraine to date. Since the Biden administration took office, the United States has pledged more than $13.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister: The supply of weapons and equipment by the United States and its allies to Ukraine will only lead to more casualties
According to TASS reported on the 24th, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said at the meeting of defense ministers of SCO member states in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, on the same day that the united States and its allies providing weapons and equipment to Ukraine will only lead to more casualties and make the armed conflict in Ukraine long-term.
Shoigu also said that the slowdown in offensive operations in special military operations was a conscious decision aimed at minimizing civilian casualties and that special military operations were currently proceeding as planned.
Shoigu said Ukraine was chosen by the West as a tool for a hybrid war against Russia, and the U.S. goal in Ukraine is to achieve strategic attrition against Russia to eliminate competition and warn other countries. At the same time, Western countries are stirring up relations between Russia and its partners in an attempt to further isolate Russia.
Putin warned of the risk of intensifying forest fires in Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on the 24th that the current forest fire situation is "tricky" and has a tendency to expand.
Putin said in a video conference with local officials on the same day that there is a risk of aggravated forest fires in parts of Russia in Europe and in the Far East, where fires are frequent, due to abnormal weather.
Putin mentioned Ryazan Oblast, located more than 200 kilometers southeast of the capital Moscow. Since the beginning of this month, a series of forest fires have occurred in Ryazan Prefecture, and on the 22nd, due to the intensification of the fire, it entered a state of emergency, and residents in some areas were evacuated. In windy weather, local forest fires continue to spread. Smoke from forest fires once spread to parts of Moscow last week and again at the beginning of the week.
Acting Governor pavel Markov of Ryazan Oblast said at the meeting that the area of the fire was close to 12,000 hectares. More than 9,500 firefighters and rescuers, 8 aircraft and 7 helicopters were dispatched to extinguish the fire, and strive to control the fire within two or three days and completely extinguish the forest fire in one to two weeks.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said earlier that Moscow had supplied Ryazan Oblast with fire-fighting equipment and sent personnel to assist in extinguishing the fire.
Iran confirmed receipt of a U.S. response to the remaining issues in the settlement of negotiations on the resumption of compliance with the JCPOA
According to the news, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Kanani said on the 24th that Iran received a response from the United States earlier in the day to solve iran's proposal to solve the remaining issues in the negotiations to resume the implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry website quoted Kanani as saying on the same day that the US response was given to Iran by the EU side responsible for coordinating the negotiations. The Iranian side has begun to carefully review the US response and will give feedback to the EU coordinator after full study.
Earlier this month, Iran's deputy foreign minister and chief negotiator on the Iranian nuclear issue, Bagheri, held the latest round of talks with representatives of other parties involved in the Iranian nuclear agreement in Vienna, the Austrian capital, and the US special envoy for Iran, Ma Li, held indirect negotiations with the Iranian side through the deputy secretary-general of the European Union's External Action Agency, Mora. On the 8th, the EU submitted a "final text" on resuming the implementation of the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement to the participants in the negotiations on the resumption of implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and looked forward to the parties making political decisions on this text. The Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency reported on the 16th that Iran has replied to the latest draft proposed by the European Union to resume the implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement and called on the United States to show flexibility.
In July 2015, Iran reached a nuclear deal with the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany. In May 2018, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, and then restarted and added a series of sanctions against Iraq. Since May 2019, Iran has gradually suspended its implementation of some of the terms of the agreement, but promised that the measures taken were "reversible". Since April 2021, the parties to the Iranian nuclear agreement have held several rounds of talks in Vienna to discuss the resumption of U.S.-Iran implementation of the treaty, with the United States indirectly participating in the negotiations.
HKEX: Typhoon Signal No. 8 is now in effect, and the securities and derivatives markets have been delayed in opening
On the morning of 25 August, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) announced that the opening of the stock market (including the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect northbound trading) and the morning trading session of the derivatives market will be delayed today (Thursday) due to typhoon signal No. 8 issued by the Observatory.
If Typhoon Signal No. 8 or above/Extreme Warning is still in effect at 9:00 a.m., trading will be suspended in the morning.
If Typhoon Signal 8 or above/Extreme Warning is cancelled at or before 12:00 noon, HKEX Securities and Derivatives Market products will resume trading in the afternoon and trading will commence on the hour or 30:00 hours after the Typhoon Signal/Extreme Warning is lifted.
If Typhoon Signal No. 8 or above/Extreme Warning is still in effect at 12:00 noon, trading in the securities and derivatives markets will be suspended throughout the day.
HKEX will issue a further announcement in due course.
The internal crude oil futures achieved seven consecutive days of yang, can the strong lead rise be sustained?
In recent times, the domestic crude oil futures have continued to rise, far stronger than the international oil price trend. On august 24, the main contract of sc crude oil in the inner disk rose sharply by 5.05% intraday, closing at 734.1 yuan / barrel, a new high in nearly two months, setting a strong performance of seven days of continuous yang.
However, the early trend of international oil prices was relatively weak. On Wednesday, the Brent crude oil main contract returned to above $100 / barrel, and the main WTI crude oil price rushed to $95.4 / barrel in the intraday high, beginning to catch up with the recent strong performance of SC crude oil.
A number of analysts told the Futures Daily reporter that the recent trend of SC crude oil prices in the domestic disk is stronger than that of international crude oil such as Brent and WTI, which is caused by various factors such as the difference between supply and demand of varieties, freight and the number of warehouse receipts.
Yide futures analyst Chen Tongbiao told reporters that the subject matter of domestic SC crude oil futures belongs to medium crude oil, while Brent and WTI belong to light crude oil, and recently due to the increase in the production of light crude oil such as Libya and Beihai oilfields, the price spread between medium and light crude oil has strengthened significantly.
In addition, he said, global seaborne crude oil exports climbed to a high level in the past two years, driving a sharp rise in sea freight rates from the Middle East to China.
"The rise in crude oil shipments in the Middle East has led to an almost double in the freight rate of oil tankers from the Middle East to China, and the mainland has imported more Middle Eastern oil, and the rising transportation costs have supported the price of oil in the domestic disk." CITIC Futures analyst Zhu Ziyue said.
Jianxin Futures analyst Li Jie said that since July, the domestic crude oil futures warehouse receipts have been rapidly cancelled, and most of the cancelled warehouse receipts are basra light oil that is difficult to refine, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is reduced to support the significant strengthening of oil prices in the inner disk.
For the strong continuous rise of domestic crude oil futures, Zhu Ziyue believes that due to the difference in the rhythm of economic operation at home and abroad, the recent marginal improvement in the demand for domestic refinery feeding has formed a certain support for the internal and external price differences.
However, in Chen Tong's view, the above factors leading to the relative strength of SC crude oil lack sustainability, and the current bullish factors have been fully realized, and it is expected that the price of SC crude oil in the later period will be difficult to get out of the independent market.
Looking at the future market, they all believe that the key to the short-term oil price trend lies in the progress of the restart of the Iranian nuclear agreement. A senior U.S. official said this week that Iran had dropped some key requirements for resuming the nuclear deal, which greatly increased the likelihood of a consensus.
Chen Tong said Iran's crude oil production in July was 2.55 million bpd, compared with 3.8 million bpd before the sanctions. If the Iranian nuclear agreement lands, Iran's crude oil production has room to grow by 1.25 million barrels per day. In addition, Iran has 100 million barrels of crude oil and condensate stocks, which can be put on the market almost immediately.
It is worth noting that the short-term supply expectation game around oil producers continues to intensify, and Saudi Arabia has made a strong response to Iran's potential crude oil increase, saying that it has begun to formulate a post-2022 production reduction plan. OPEC+ sources said that if Iran's crude oil returns to the market, OPEC+ may choose to cut oil production. Zhu Ziyue said that the increase or decrease in crude oil supply in Iran, Russia and OPEC countries led by Saudi Arabia will be the leading factors in the later stage.
In the medium term, Chen Tong believes that on the macro side, the pressure of the Fed to curb price increases through interest rate hikes continues. The more aggressive tightening policies of major Western central banks have limited economic activity, and recession expectations continue to heat up, putting pressure on oil prices to the upside. Geographically, the EUROPEAN Union will impose a ban on most of Russia's crude oil exports from December, and about two months later, the EU will take similar measures against products such as naphtha, but whether it can finally land is still in doubt. In terms of supply and demand, with the advent of the peak season for oil demand in the fourth quarter, it is expected that crude oil inventories will still be difficult to increase significantly. On the whole, he said that the game of macro and micro factors in the crude oil market has led to increased price volatility, and investors still need to pay attention to the actual changes in OPEC+ production, including Iran and Russia.
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 3.282 million barrels to 422 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 19, the lowest since the week of June 24, 2022, and Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) inventories fell by 8.091 million barrels to 453.1 million barrels, the 50th consecutive week of decline, the lowest since the week of January 11, 1985, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
Fundamentals dominate the non-ferrous market, and the trend of variety differentiation is obvious
In recent times, the dollar index has continued to climb, but the non-ferrous market has not fallen sharply, and the trend of variety differentiation is more obvious. As of the afternoon close of August 24, the trend of Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai nickel in the non-ferrous sector has diverged. Among them, Shanghai aluminum futures continued to rise, closing up 2.66%, refreshing a one-and-a-half-month high; Shanghai nickel futures went all the way to weakness, closing down 2.03% on the day.
It is worth noting that the recent macro guidance on non-ferrous metals is relatively limited, although the recent attitude of Fed officials is hawkish, the dollar index continues to strengthen, but it has not significantly dragged down the trend of non-ferrous metals, and the trend of related varieties has returned to fundamentals. Wu Haode, head of the Guangzhou branch of Yangtze River Futures, believes that there are two main reasons:
First, the previous round of non-ferrous metal prices fell sharply has partially fulfilled the expectations of a global recession under the Fed's interest rate hike cycle. Since July, the Fed's hawkish attitude towards interest rate hikes has eased, superimposed on THE US inflation has taken a turn, and the market's expectations for strong interest rate hikes have been relatively moderate. Although the dollar index is still strong, it is difficult to stimulate the dollar index to continue to move higher sharply. Therefore, the impact of the short-term strengthening of the US dollar on non-ferrous metals is marginally weakened, that is, non-ferrous metals are being "desensitized" to the US dollar in stages.
Second, the upward driving force of the non-ferrous metal market since August has mainly come from China. On the one hand, with the support of domestic policies, market expectations have improved; On the other hand, the continuous high temperature in many places has led to a shortage of power supply, triggering a reduction in smelting production and promoting a rebound in metal prices. Therefore, it can be seen that the inner disk is stronger than the outer disk, of which the contrast between the strength and weakness of the aluminum price is particularly obvious.
In the view of Hou Yahui, chief analyst of Shenyin Wanguo Futures Nonferrous Metals, August is still in the interval of the Fed's macro interest rate hike cycle, and the impact of macro factors is relatively weakened. The recent non-ferrous metal prices mainly reflect the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, such as copper and zinc with strong fundamentals are in a continuous rebound trend, and aluminum has recently broken through again due to the news of the simultaneous reduction in production at home and abroad due to the supply side. Varieties with weak fundamentals, such as nickel, will be more pronounced after the previous stage of rebound.
"At present, the non-ferrous metal market has entered the consolidation period, and the influence of the fundamentals of various varieties has rebounded, such as zinc and aluminum have been affected by energy problems in the European region, and the risk of production reduction has increased, while domestic aluminum production has also been affected by local power rationing, and the risk of production reduction has increased." Moreover, non-ferrous metals continue to be affected by low inventories and low supply elasticity, and in the case of global liquidity is still relatively abundant, supply-side disturbances are easy to attract market attention. Founder medium-term futures analyst Yang Lina said.
But Yang Lina reminded that the market needs to pay attention to the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting known as the policy inflection point "barometer" will be held from August 25 to 27, and Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at 22:00 Beijing time on Friday. At that time, Powell will elaborate on inflation performance and monetary policy measures, and it is expected to emphasize that the US economy and labor market are still strong, while inflation is unacceptably high, and monetary policy still needs to be tightened to cope, and the rhythm of interest rate hikes continues to adjust according to economic data. The information released at the meeting will still have a greater impact on the market. She said that the current market trading rhythm switches between liquidity tightening, stagflation and recession pre-recession periods, and looking back, it can be found that the non-ferrous metals market in a similar environment is still slightly better than other assets.
Market participants: Supply-side disturbances have brought some support to aluminum prices
Looking at the aluminum market, the above analysts believe that the recent increase in supply-side disturbances at home and abroad has brought obvious short-term support. Yang Lina said that at present, the domestic aluminum supply side is affected by high temperature power rationing, and production capacity continues to decrease. In Europe, aluminum production capacity has also been reduced again due to energy problems. On the demand side, processing enterprises have also been affected by the impact of power rationing. With the continuation of the consumption off-season and the deterioration of the external environment, the order situation in the processing industry is relatively weak, and the recovery of terminal consumption will take time and more stimulus measures. In terms of inventory, social inventory slightly accumulated negative aluminum prices.
Specifically, Hou Yahui told reporters that in addition to the reduction in production caused by energy problems abroad, the workers of Hydro's Sunndal aluminum factory in Norway have recently begun to hold a strike, and the aluminum plant will stop production by about 20% in the first four weeks. At present, the total production capacity of Sunndal Aluminum Plant is 390,000 tons /year, and the strike involves a production capacity of about 80,000 tons/year.
Domestically, on August 22, the power ration requirements in Sichuan Province were upgraded again, and the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the province basically stopped production. According to statistics, Sichuan Province has about 1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, and some enterprises have begun to reduce loads and let electricity be used by the people since mid-July. After August, the power supply situation became more severe, and the current electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the region has been completely stopped. Chongqing, also in the southwest, is also in a tight situation due to high temperature weather. It is understood that at present, it has affected 2 electrolytic aluminum plants, involving a production capacity of about 30,000 tons. He said that affected by the above supply factors, the loose pattern of aluminum fundamentals has changed to a certain extent, and the excess pressure on the supply side of electrolytic aluminum has been suspended in August, forming a certain support for prices in the short term.
"How long the firm performance of aluminum prices can last depends mainly on the duration of the strike at overseas aluminum factories and whether the scale of production cuts due to energy issues will be further expanded." Yang Lina said that the longer the supply relative demand continues to be tight, the greater the impact on the balance of supply and demand in aluminum prices.
Hou Yahui said that with the end of the summer, the continuous high temperature weather in the southwest region is expected to gradually approach the end, but it will still take a while for the power problem to ease, and the production process of electrolytic aluminum determines that the restart of the electrolytic cell will also take a certain amount of time. He expects that after the power supply of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Sichuan Province is guaranteed, the time for all production capacity to be restarted is expected to be at least one month.
Wu Haode believes that the aluminum market needs to pay attention to the following factors: in terms of supply and demand, Sichuan's power rationing directly leads to a reduction in 1 million tons of production capacity and the postponement of 70,000 tons of new production capacity. On the demand side, under the domestic macro policy, credit support and other aspects, there is a marginal improvement in consumption, and with the advent of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season, it will bring a certain increase in demand. Overall, the fundamentals of aluminum supply and demand can be summarized as follows: the supply margin decreases, the demand margin increases, and the balance between supply and demand improves throughout the year.
In terms of inventory, the current LME aluminum inventory is less than 300,000 tons, the aluminum inventory in the previous period is less than 200,000 tons, the warehouse receipt is less than 100,000 tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is less than 700,000 tons. "The market has always said that 2022 is a big year for electrolytic aluminum production, and the reality is indeed the same. However, to stretch the line of sight, looking at the next year and the future of aluminum production capacity reduction, in the case of electrolytic aluminum operating capacity continues to approach the 'ceiling', demand to maintain a stable growth, aluminum has no stock crisis, or whether the market may have begun to trade this, this is what needs attention. He said.
Overall, Wu Haode believes that aluminum prices will be optimistic in the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", and the upper height will see 19500-20000 yuan / ton. For the future of aluminum prices is a strong rebound or idling more, we should pay attention to the substantial improvement of consumption and the space for supply disturbances.
Why haven't nickel prices been boosted by Indonesia's export policy?
In late July, nickel prices began a low-level rebound trend, and in August, nickel prices were always in a range oscillating trend. Previously, the market twice reported that Indonesia imposed tariffs on nickel products this year, and nickel prices only showed a significant rebound trend on the same day, and then fell back again in the context of the weak pattern of supply and demand.
Yang Lina told reporters that the tax discussion on Indonesian nickel products has begun since last year, and this year it has gradually become clear in terms of the scope of taxation, the implementation time and the intensity of taxation. The market expects that the relevant policies will be implemented as early as the third quarter, and the tax objects are nickel pig iron and nickel iron, and the current tax rate has not yet been clarified. "We expect that the tax range is relatively limited, and even if the tax is landed, it will only slightly increase the export cost of ferronickel, and it will be difficult to change the relative price advantage of Indonesian nickel pig iron, and it is difficult to have a substantial impact on the current supply and demand of nickel iron." Unless the tax rate and scope of the landing exceed expectations, this kind of news is a short-term impact. She said.
Yu Feifei, an analyst at Jianxin Futures, said that according to the information of Indonesian officials since the beginning of this year, it can be roughly speculated that Indonesia intends to impose an export tariff of 2%-3% on nickel iron and nickel pig iron, which may change with price changes, and the policy may be implemented as early as the third quarter. My non-ferrous data shows that the current Indonesian ferronickel arrival tax price and domestic nickel iron price are around 1256 yuan / nickel point, if the levy of 2% -3% tariffs will lead to more advantages in domestic nickel iron. Due to the relatively low cost of Nickel Iron in Indonesia, there is a certain amount of room for tax increases, and the possibility of profit concessions is not ruled out.
From a price point of view, she believes that the imposition of tariffs on nickel-iron will most directly lead to an increase in the cost of stainless steel and new energy NPI to switch to high ice nickel. However, due to the sluggish stainless steel market, the current NPI production line in the field of new energy is not mainstream, so the impact is relatively limited. In addition, the current premium of electrolytic nickel to ferronickel is still more than 50,000 / ton, far exceeding the historical average, and due to the continuous growth of Indonesian ferronickel supply, the overall surplus of nickel ferronickel market, the tax boost to ferronickel prices is also relatively limited. On the whole, she believes that the policy may lead to the redistribution of profits between Indonesian nickel iron factories and import traders and domestic nickel iron factories, but the impact on the current nickel price trend is relatively limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the actual landing of follow-up policies.
From the perspective of the current nickel market fundamentals, Hou Yahui said that at present, in terms of overseas market supply, the new projects of Nickel Iron in Indonesia have been put into operation smoothly, and the production capacity of nickel ore and nickel iron has shown significant increases. Looking at the country, the pure nickel end bonded zone has seen a large accumulation phenomenon, Indonesia's nickel iron, wet intermediates and high ice nickel continue to flow in, and the over-supply pressure remains unabated. Looking at the demand side, in August, the downstream stainless steel field also gradually appeared the return of Indonesian production capacity, stainless steel consumption continued to be weak, steel mills accumulated more, the market is not very optimistic about the peak consumption season in the second half of the year, and the demand is still in a light state. Therefore, he believes that nickel prices still show a relatively under pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Whether there can be a significant breakthrough rebound in the later period still depends on whether the peak season of the downstream terminal consumption of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" can come.
This article originated from Futures Daily