"I've had enough, both mentally and physically." Christian Faustico sat in a tent at an evacuation centre in southwestern France and spoke helplessly to BBC reporters.
This is the second time Thatfstychenko has been forced to evacuate his home this summer. Faustichenko lives in a small town called Saint-Margne in the French province of Gironde, an area that had just been hit by a fire that had burned 14,000 hectares of land in July, and in early August, another super-fire struck and tens of thousands of people were forced to evacuate.
Faustchenko was transferred to this evacuation center on the evening of August 8 and is expected to stay here for 10-12 days. At the time of his interview, more than 1,000 firefighters were participating in the fire fighting operation in southwest France, and firefighters from Germany, Romania, Austria, Poland and other EU countries had joined the fire fighting team.
"I've been a firefighter for 40 years and have never seen a fire like this." In the face of the raging fire, Jean-Pierre Le Quinff, fire chief of haute-Garonne in southwestern France, told BBC reporters, "We are waiting for rain and snow to wait for winter." ”
On August 13, 2022, local time, In Guada, Portugal, the local wildfire continued to spread. Figure/IC photo
One in five in Belgium
On August 14, local time, parts of France ushered in long-lost rain. Meteo France forecasts a series of storms in the following week.
"It rained some today, which means this heat wave should be over." French climate scientist Robert Vautard said in an interview with the Beijing News on August 14.
France just experienced its fourth heat wave this summer. On August 12, high temperatures of more than 40 °C occurred in many places. But the heat wave has largely ended since August 14, although some western French provinces are still on orange warnings of high temperatures.
The rain "extinguished" the fire that burned for many days. Agence France-Presse reported on August 14 that the rain over the weekend brought fires under control in many parts of France, including forest fires around Gironde province.
But in neighboring Spain, the country's northeastern region resumed a weekend fire. On August 15, hundreds of firefighters were still battling multiple fires. Agence France-Presse reported that the fire had burned more than 8,000 hectares and more than 1,500 people had been forced to relocate.
Spain is the country in Europe that has been most affected by forest fires this year. According to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), dozens of wildfires have broken out in Spain this year, burning a total of 244,000 hectares of land. According to the British "Guardian", the land area destroyed by mountain fires in Spain this year is almost 4 times that of the average land burned by mountain fires in the whole year since it was recorded in 2006.
On August 17, 2022, local time, near Herica, Spain, the local wildfire continued to spread. Figure/IC photo
At the same time, 150,000 hectares were burned by wildfires in Romania and 77,000 hectares in Portugal. Fires in France burned 60,000 hectares of land, almost 1.5 times as much land as in 2019.
2022 could be the worst year for wildfires in Europe. According to EFFIS data, nearly 660,000 hectares of land were burned by wildfires on the European continent between January and mid-August this year, 56 percent higher than the record of 420,000 hectares in the same period in 2017. According to the Guardian, this figure is equivalent to one-fifth of Belgium's land area. Some analysts pointed out that according to the current trend of wildfire outbreaks, more than 1 million hectares of land will be burned in Europe this year.
Previously, European fires were mainly caused by countries in the Mediterranean region, but since 2010, fires have gradually spread to central and northern European countries, and Austria, Germany and other countries have also suffered rare wildfires.
Raging wildfires not only burn carbon-absorbing trees, but also emit more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, further threatening the planet's ecosystems.
The European Union's Copernicus Environmental Watch project previously announced that France's carbon emissions from wildfires this summer were the highest on record in 2003, emitting a total of 1 million tons of carbon dioxide from June to mid-August. Spain's carbon emissions from wildfires from June 1 to mid-July are already higher than the total emissions from June to July 2003 to June and July 2021.
But Europe's wildfires are far from over. EFFIS coordinator Jesús San Miguel told AFP that this year's drought and extreme heat have affected the whole of Europe, which is still in the middle of the wildfire season, and the situation is worrying. On August 17, mountain fires in Italy, Spain, Portugal and other countries were still spreading, and there was a resurgence of fires in some areas.
The dry Rhine
The Rhine, which originates in the Alps, is the largest river in Western Europe and is known as the "Golden Waterway". In Germany, it is also known as the "Father River". However, as the heat and drought continue this summer, the river, which is linked to multi-European shipping, is in danger of drying up.
On August 14, 2022, local time, Germany, due to the continuous high temperature and drought weather, the water level of the Rhine River dropped. Figure/IC photo
André Kimper, a ferry captain on the Rhine in the German town of Kaub, was deeply concerned about the situation on the Rhine. "We have a depth of 1.5 meters and a draft of 1.2 meters for the boat, which means that we are only 30 centimeters from the bottom of the river." Kimper told BBC reporters that this is not unexplained, but it has become more and more frequent recently.
German Transport Ministry spokesman Tim Alessandrin said earlier in August that the water level in the section of the river near the town of Kaub had dropped to about 40 centimeters and could drop further to about 35 centimeters in the coming period.
For ships, the water level is less than 40 centimeters and it is impassable, which will seriously affect the circulation of bulk cargoes such as diesel and kerosene. According to the Guardian, many industrial giants have begun to reduce capacity on the Rhine, and some ferry services have been stopped.
Europe is experiencing a rare severe drought that has caused water levels in many of Europe's major rivers to fall to historic lows, with huge implications for shipping, freight, energy, industry, agriculture and tourism in Europe.
In parts of France, one can cross the Loire on foot; In Italy, the water level of the Po River, the longest river in the country, is about 2 meters lower than normal, and many sections of the river have dried up and the sea has been irrigated; Since the water level of some sections of the Danube Is 50 cm lower than that of navigable water, dredging works are under way in Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria and other countries.
On August 7, 2022, local time, near Mont Saint Michel in France, France suffered a severe drought. Figure/IC photo
According to the Guardian, the low water level of the river, which causes shipping to stop, will have a huge impact on the European economy. When the drought hit in 2018, shipping on the Rhine was suspended for six months, costing Europe about 5 billion euros. Some experts estimate that the low rhine water level this year may lead to a 0.2% reduction in German GDP.
In Italy, the Po River affects 30 to 40 percent of the country's agricultural production. However, due to low water levels and backfilling by seawater, rice yields near the Po River may be reduced by 60%. In France, the low flow of the Loire river has led to problems with power plants, and some power plants have reduced their capacity as a result.
In the view of Andrea Torreti, a senior fellow at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, the drought that Europe is experiencing this year may become the worst drought in 500 years, worse than the drought in 2018.
"This summer has been a very extreme summer for Europe." In an interview with the Beijing News reporter, Toretti said that since the beginning of summer, unprecedented heat waves and droughts have begun to sweep through Europe. According to statistics, thousands of people in Spain, Portugal and other countries have died due to heat waves. In addition, according to the European Drought Observatory, about 47% of the EU's land is under drought warning and 17% is on higher alert.
Toretti pointed out that climate change is causing extreme weather events such as droughts and heat waves to become more frequent and severe. "The concern is that such extreme events are bound to happen again in the future."
Inside and outside of expectations
Throughout the spring and summer of 2022, Europe experienced a series of extreme weather events, including rare heat, ongoing heat waves, raging wildfires and historic droughts. In Waltar's view, these extreme events are actually within the expectations of climate scientists.
"We have always known that climate change is increasing the likelihood of such extreme events." Wattal pointed out to the Beijing News reporter, "Especially the heat wave - in the past few years (except for 2021), Europe has experienced a period of high temperature heat wave every summer, so we know that the frequency of heat waves will inevitably increase." ”
The Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in August 2021 pointed out that human-induced climate change has affected extreme weather and climate events in all regions of the world, and that extreme weather events will be more frequent and severe in the future. Since the 1950s, the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events have increased in most parts of the world, the report said.
"To some extent, the occurrence of extreme events such as high temperatures, heat waves, wildfires and droughts in Europe this year confirms the warnings issued by the IPCC's sixth assessment report." Zhang Xuebin, a Canadian climate scientist and one of the main authors of the sixth report of the IPCC, told the Beijing News reporter.
However, such a severe drought was somewhat beyond the expectations of Walthal and others. A number of experts pointed out that an important reason for the historic drought in Europe this year is that in the past two months, there has been almost no rainfall in Western Europe, Central Europe and Southern Europe, and many countries have experienced the driest July in decades, and the continuous high temperature heat wave has also led to more severe drought.
According to the European Union's Copernican Climate Change Service, July was the sixth-hottest July in Europe on record. Spain, Portugal, France and other countries have exceeded 40 °C temperatures, and the United Kingdom is the first time in recorded high temperatures above 40 °C.
On August 4, 2022, local time, London, England, greenwich Royal Park, once the green lawn of Greenwich Royal Park was affected by the continuous drought, and now it is like a desert. Figure/IC photo
"This spring, we warned parts of Europe of a high risk of drought. However, the severity and scope of the drought have exceeded our expectations. Toretti said the same thing.
Another point that Voltar and many climate scientists did not expect was the marked increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events such as the heat wave in Europe this year.
"It's been an absolutely extraordinary year." Voltar said affirmatively. He said that Europe had experienced heat waves in the past few years, but they were relatively short-lived and concentrated over a period of time. However, this year's heat wave in parts of Europe began in May and continued in many countries through August.
In addition, from the research model, the temperature rise on high temperature days caused by climate change should be about 2 °C, but this year the temperature rise in Europe on high temperature days has risen by about 3 °C-4 °C, and this increase is also a bit unexpected, Whartar pointed out. Wörtal is particularly concerned about the high temperatures in London, England. He said almost no scientists had predicted a 40°C temperature in London before, which was a very rare situation. "Why is this happening? We don't quite understand. ”
Zhang Xuebin is concerned that a series of extreme weather events in Europe this summer occurred almost simultaneously, resulting in greater damage. He explained that if an extreme event occurs alone, the impact is much smaller than if several extreme events occur at the same time. "This year's heat waves, wildfires, and droughts in Europe have occurred almost simultaneously, and they have spread almost all of the continent and the United Kingdom, which has multiplied its impact and made it more difficult to prevent and reduce disasters."
For the first time, the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report includes compound extreme events in the assessment. Compound extreme events have become more frequent in many parts of the world since 1950, such as spring droughts exacerbating summer heatwaves, which in turn exacerbate droughts, and the combination of the two has led to an increased likelihood of wildfire outbreaks, the report notes.
The "new normal" brings new challenges
A French climate activist from the environmental group Extinction Rebellion recently did one thing: fill holes in golf courses with cement.
France is experiencing one of the worst drought crises on record, and many governments are asking people to avoid unnecessary water use, such as car washing and garden watering, Reuters reported on August 14. However, golf courses with very large water consumption have been exempted, causing many people to resent.
"The controversy over whether golf courses should be allowed to water actually reflect the new challenges that the climate crisis presents to us." Waltar said that due to the drought, the water levels of many rivers in Europe are at historically low levels, and the storage of water in reservoirs is insufficient, which has led to the enactment of water restrictions in many regions, "but which activities and projects can prioritize water use is controversial." This brings new challenges to governance. ”
This historic drought has brought great challenges to Europe, and many countries have enacted measures to limit water use. Of the 96 provinces in mainland France, 93 have imposed water restrictions, and more than 100 municipalities rely on trucks to provide drinking water. Reservoir storage in Spain is at its lowest level, and water restrictions have been declared in 7 autonomous regions. The Netherlands previously declared the country in a state of water shortage. Several European countries, including Portugal and Italy, have also announced water restrictions.
In the UK, the country's southwest faces a "hose water restriction order" for the first time in more than two decades in the face of a persistent drought, and violators will face a fine of £1,000. According to the Guardian, from August 23, the Uk's South West Water Company will implement a "hose water restriction order" in cornwall and parts of Devon. The company said its water reserves were less than half, making it difficult to meet the region's water needs. Under the ban, people are not allowed to water gardens, wash cars or fill pools with soft water pipes.
On August 5, 2022 local time, the southern region of England, England, england, is experiencing the driest summer on record. The picture shows a dead fish on the riverbed. Figure/IC photo
Prior to this, a number of regions in the UK had begun to implement the "Hose Water Restriction Order". Southern Water has implemented "Hose Water Restriction Orders" in Hampshire and Isle of Wightshire. Southeast Water Company imposed a water restriction order on 13 August, and Welsh Water Company introduced water restriction orders in PembrokeShire and Carmarthen Hill from 19 August.
The UK is facing a severe drought crisis. The Met Office previously noted that July was the driest July in England since 1935. According to the BBC, the British government officially announced on August 12 that 8 of England's 14 regions were in a state of drought. This is the first drought in England since 2018.
Extreme events such as high temperatures and droughts not only affect people's daily lives, but also have an impact on Electricity, Energy, Agriculture, and Industry in Europe. A 2021 study showed that drought costs the EU €9 billion a year. If global warming reaches 1.5°C, this figure will rise to 9.6 billion euros.
But it's not over yet. In Torretti's view, Europe is still at risk of being drier than ever in the next three months. "And without immediate and effective action to reduce emissions, such extreme events will become a new normal by mid-century."
The "fire" has burned to the eyebrows
The successive outbreaks of extreme weather events in Europe this year, including high temperatures, heat waves, wildfires and droughts, may be a microcosm of the increase in global extreme events.
The World Meteorological Organization has previously said That July 2022 was one of the three hottest Julys on record. Globally, the average temperature in July is nearly 0.4°C higher than the reference period from 1991 to 2020. Among them, land temperatures in the northern hemisphere are generally above average.
The United States also saw the third-highest temperature on record in July, with much of the region experiencing multiple rounds of heat waves with daytime temperatures above 37.8°C. In Asia, China, South Korea, Japan, India and other countries have experienced extreme heat of more than 40 ° C. In many parts of central South America and southern Africa, Temperatures in July were above average. Even near the North Pacific and Antarctic Peninsulas, ocean temperatures are above average.
Wildfire droughts caused by high heat waves also severely affect North America. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor released on August 2, 51.4 percent of the U.S. is in a state of drought. Meanwhile, wildfires raged in the western and southern plains, burning more than 5.7 million acres (about 2.31 million hectares) across the U.S. from Jan. 1 to July 31 of this year, nearly 1.5 times the average for the same period in previous years.
In Africa, the Horn of Africa region is experiencing its worst drought in more than 40 years. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has previously warned that drought could lead to severe famine for more than 18 million people in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya.
"The IPCC report has clearly stated that due to the impact of global warming, extreme events such as high temperature heat waves will become more frequent, occur for longer and longer, and even start much earlier." Zhang Xuebin said that this is the same as the reason for the rising tide, the global average temperature rises, and the possibility of various extreme high temperatures and heat waves will inevitably increase.
On August 19, 2022, local time, in the village of Urqueira in Oran, Portugal, wildfires spread and people were evacuated urgently. Figure/IC photo
Votal also said that the situation similar to this year in Europe may not occur every year, but extreme events such as heat waves will become the norm in the next few decades. "There is no doubt that the frequency and intensity of its occurrence will increase. That said, we will face higher temperatures, more severe droughts and wildfires. ”
Zhang Xuebin further pointed out that "there is generally a lot of uncertainty in climate predictions, but scientists' predictions of events such as extreme heat are becoming a reality." This is actually a terrible thing. In his view, what happened to Europe this summer should be a wake-up call for humanity that we are all in the midst of a climate crisis, and that the extreme weather events mentioned in the IPCC report are not just "paper talk", they are already a reality.
"When we mentioned climate change 20 years ago, we were talking about paying attention to the distant 'smoke'; now we should realize that the 'fire' has burned to the eyebrows." If no action is taken, no one knows where this "fire" will burn.
Beijing News reporter Xie Lian
Edited by Zhang Shujing Proofread by Liu Yue