The hottest topic on the weekend was the power ration, and it is said that for more than 60 years, the Sichuan-Chongqing region has not waited as eagerly for rain as it does today. Friends said that now you can still meet the hot pot in Sichuan and Chongqing, which is definitely a lifelong friendship! In a word, if you were well before, it was a sunny day; Now if you're all right, hurry up and it's raining.
This year's round of drought is not only in China, but the high temperature spread across the world. The United States has experienced the worst drought in more than 200 years, and Europe has been the worst in more than 500 years! One is worse than the other, this day has passed, the epidemic, power rationing, water shortage, food production reduction, energy crisis... Can the world still be better?
Domestically, Sichuan has launched the highest emergency response to energy supply guarantees, and the province's power curtailment time has also been extended. From the current point of view, even if the high temperature is over, the power gap is estimated to still exist! Because the Yangtze River, reservoirs and lakes have no water, if it does not rain heavily, you can only use love to generate electricity.
Ai Gujun is in Beijing, to be honest, the weather is still quite cool, and it is still raining heavily at this time, and I can't feel the heat of the roast. But their years are quiet, it is someone who is carrying the weight forward, and I hope that the people of Sichuan and Chongqing will tide over the difficulties as soon as possible!
In the past few days, I have not turned on the air conditioner myself, and I have turned off the lights casually, I don't know if it will be helpful to the people of Sichuan. I hope that the extreme weather will end soon, and it is said that the cooling will begin to cool down from August 26, and everyone will grit their teeth and hold on, and they will soon see the dawn.
1. The national standing committee will set the tone! August LPR down-shaving space or over 10 basis points
The National Standing Meeting held on the 18th deployed measures to reduce the financing cost of enterprises and the cost of personal consumer credit, and increased financial support for the real economy. Analysts believe that the 10BP interest rate cut in the central bank's MLF (medium-term lending facility) has released a stronger signal of "stable credit, steady growth", and it is expected that the probability of the LPR (loan market quotation rate) will rise sharply in August, and it is not excluded that the amplitude exceeds expectations.
Comments: The social finance data in July is not good, and on August 15, the central bank officially "cut interest rates", stimulating the market with obvious intentions! Next Monday's LPR interest rate, institutions generally believe that a big drop, more than 10 basis points, this has a big impact on the stock market.
In the view of Ai stock Jun, the 1-year decline of 10 basis points is in line with expectations, 15 basis points exceed expectations, and 20 basis points is a big positive. In short, whether the big A can stabilize the rebound next week, this matter is very important, wait and see!
2. Sichuan launched a first-level emergency response to emergency energy supply guarantee
The reporter learned that the Office of the Sichuan Provincial Energy Supply Guarantee Emergency Command Leading Group issued a notice to launch a first-level emergency response to the emergency energy supply guarantee in Sichuan Province at 00:00 today. This is the first time since the General Office of the Provincial Government issued the "Sichuan Provincial Emergency Plan for Emergency Energy Supply Guarantee (Trial)" in January 2022, and Sichuan has launched the highest level of emergency response.
Comments: Sichuan's lack of electricity and curtailment continued to ferment over the weekend, and the province launched the highest level of emergency response, which is the first time in history! As a major hydropower province in the country, due to the drought that is difficult to encounter in a hundred years; The flood period of previous years has become a dry period, resulting in a serious lack of electricity. How should I maintain power supply next? It really worries the people of the whole country.
In addition to Sichuan-Chongqing, Shanghai, which has recently been scolded, also issued a ban on landscape lighting along the Huangpu River on August 22 and 23, the Bund, the North Bund, and Xiaolujiazui areas, although industrial electricity has not stopped! But it means that the shortage of electricity in various places is expected to increase. The shorter the shortage of electricity, the stronger the expectation of rising electricity prices (industrial electricity), which is undoubtedly good for the power and green power sectors!
In fact, industrial and commercial electricity prices have been gradually marketized, and the proportion of floating rates has expanded to 20%. The high-energy-consuming electricity industry can increase prices higher (not limited by 20%), bringing new stimuli to power operators, and the price of electricity sold this year is expected to exceed market expectations! Of course, because the lack of electricity is only a short-term stimulus, as the cooling down everywhere next week, the pressure on electricity will be alleviated, the fluctuations of power-related sectors will increase, and the participation in the game will be stable.
3, the property market is heavy! The state shot: special loans accurately focus on "guaranteeing and delivering buildings"
On August 19, according to Xinhua News Agency, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China and other relevant departments recently introduced measures to improve the policy toolbox and support the construction and delivery of residential projects that have been sold and are difficult to deliver through special loans from policy banks. It is reported that the special loan accurately focuses on "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings and stabilizing people's livelihood", and is strictly limited to the construction and delivery of residential projects that have been sold, overdue and difficult to deliver, and implement closed operation and special funds.
Comments: Weekend real estate two major benefits, very worthy of attention. First, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other shots, special loans to the "Baojiao Building", this time pulled two rich people into the market, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Mother, it can be seen that the Baojiao Building is stable.
Second, the above-mentioned call to Longhu, Gemdale, Country Garden, Xuhui, Xincheng, Sino-Ocean, Binjiang and other themes are to support the issuance of bonds and support the self-help of "good students", which detonated real estate stocks on Friday.
For real estate and real estate stocks, everyone is pessimistic. But you know, state-backed (at least short-term) industries can't stay in the doldrums! As the bearer of the economy, the recovery of the property market has been lower than expected, and the most important reason is that the first-hand house cannot be sold!
Why can't a first-hand house sell? The second-hand house is very good at playing. In fact, it is the rotten tail building incident, which scares the buyers and prefers to buy a second-hand house. There are also many people waiting to see if house prices + interest rates will continue to fall! When the confidence of guaranteed delivery is established, the house price expectation is also stable, and it is estimated that there are still many houses.
Aijun believes that under the blessing of the new favorable policies, the property market sales have picked up since September, paying attention to the development of the real estate chain Poly, North New Materials, Oriental Yuhong, Jianlang Hardware, Sankeshu, Gujia Home and other leading companies.
To put it more, the logic of the previous dilemma reversal of the real estate sector should not work now. Because the direction of policy support is "good students", industry reshuffle is inevitable. Junk real estate stocks may be speculated by floating funds, but the relay should be cautious!
4. New energy vehicles usher in a major positive Exemption from purchase tax will be extended to the end of 2023
On Friday, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to extend the exemption policy from car purchase tax to the end of next year for new energy vehicles, and continue to support the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax and consumption tax, right of way, license plates and so on. Establish a coordination mechanism for the development of the new energy automobile industry, vigorously build charging piles, and support policy-oriented development financial instruments.
Comments: The exemption from purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be extended to the end of 2023, which is expected to be a good landing, and there have been rumors before! However, the vigorous construction of charging piles exceeds expectations, and the charging pile + parts plate is more worthy of attention.
As we all know, the traditional car tax is very high, and the overall calculation is at least more than 10%. Now that the fuel vehicles cannot be sold, the state should have collected taxes on the new energy vehicles! But in order to support this industry, it is really a bloody cost; This also reassures the institution and can fry for another year.
The weekend ride association released the August sales forecast, new energy vehicle sales of 520,000 units, an increase of 108% year-on-year, an increase of 7% month-on-month, penetration rate of up to 27.7%, the data is still very good!
Recently, the new energy vehicle and vehicle sector has been shaken, due to insufficient sentiment and relay funds, and the industry has not exceeded expectations of positive support! But starting in August, car sales will enter the peak season, and the future will get better and better. The long-consolidated vehicle and lithium battery industry chain will usher in an opportunity for emotional repair.
5. The opening of the 2022 China Digital Economy Industry Conference has a signed amount of more than 31.6 billion yuan
The 2022 China Digital Economy Industry Conference opened in Shangrao City, Jiangxi Province on the 20th, with a duration of 2 days. A total of 40 projects were signed in this event, with a total amount of 31.694 billion yuan! Wang Ning, president of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, introduced at the meeting that from 2012 to 2021, the scale of the mainland's digital economy has increased from 11 trillion yuan to 45.5 trillion yuan, and the proportion of the digital economy in GDP has increased from 21.6% to 39.8%, which has a more obvious role in supporting the economy.
Comments: Recently, there are many meetings in the metaverse, and there is no shortage of catalysts! In addition, last night was a news broadcast, with the theme of "Decoding ten years丨 China set off a wave of digitalization", which lasted more than 4 minutes.
Officials continue to blow the wind, praising the increasing role of pulling economic growth, which is not small. Foreign capital, known as smart money, has also begun to enter individual digital economy concept stocks, and this signal is worth paying attention to!
From the perspective of the theme rotation, the scenery has risen for several months, every day you are light, you are electricity.... The market aesthetic fatigue, the institution also began to sing the decline! If the funds are to be switched high and low, concepts such as the digital economy, metaverse, digital currency, and robots may usher in certain opportunities and can be optimistic.
6, Guoguang Electrical Appliances: VR equipment machine business has a formal order of 1000 units of orders is small
Guoguang Electric Appliance issued an announcement of change, the company's VR equipment machine business has a formal order of 1000 units, the order volume is small, the current sales revenue has not been realized, and there is uncertainty in the follow-up order! The company supplies acoustic modules for VR/AR equipment, and from January to June 2022, the sales revenue of this type of business is 120 million yuan, accounting for 5.15% of the sales revenue of the audio electroacoustic business and 4.59% of the company's operating income.
Comments: On Friday, Guoguang Electric Appliances tail plate pulled up and stopped, out of 8 days 6 boards, there are signs of becoming a demon! Despite the explosive divergence, there was a net inflow of funds throughout the day... It shows that the main force is definitely optimistic about the VR sector, and only then receives the goods.
The announcement of Guoguang Electric Appliances seems to be a risk warning, but the company supplies acoustic modules for VR/AR equipment, and sold 120 million yuan in the first half of the year. This is one of the few authentic VR concepts in A shares, indicating that it is not a complete hot spot, but looks like a good one!
Of course, whether tomorrow will continue to seal the board, it is indeed not easy to guess. Love the view of the stock jun, A shares have always speculated in the new and not the old, the scenery storage robot has been speculated for so long, has been aesthetic fatigue! Consumer electronics, VR, digital economy and other relay concept hype, the probability is still quite large.
7. Optimize the establishment of an inter-ministerial joint conference system for fertility policy work
Recently, the State Council optimized the birth policy work inter-ministerial joint conference system was established, and the National Health Commission and other 17 departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Improving and Implementing Positive Fertility Support Measures"! The content of the letter mentions speeding up the active fertility support policy and childcare service system, improving the level of eugenics and fertility, and reducing the burden of fertility, education and parenting, reflecting the great importance that the state attaches to population issues.
Comments: This level is very high, led by the leaders of the State Council, and the ministries send ministerial-level leaders as members. As we all know, whether a certain work in China is important or not depends on whether there is a cross-departmental coordination agency! It can be said that now encouraging the birth of a baby has indeed become a national policy, and even the top priority in many places.
In fact, the recent fertility policy has been very favorable, not only the direct cash subsidy for three-child families, but also preferential support such as house purchase, auxiliary medical care has been included in medical insurance, etc., and the support is quite obvious! Now many people are reluctant to have children, and they are also pessimistic about the future fertility rate, but the gradual implementation of the birth policy and the gradual introduction of relevant stimulus measures will definitely have a certain effect!
For Big A, it is good for three children, assisted reproduction, preschool education and other sectors. But the effect is estimated to take a while to manifest, which is a medium- to long-term stimulus. In the short term, the main mood is not pulled, and the estimated effect is general, because the shareholders study stocks day and night, which is definitely a group that drags down the baby.
8. Bearish! Xu Xiang's wife Ying Ying: There is adjustment pressure in the A-share new energy sector
Xiang's wife Ying Ying released a "weekly market review" pointing out that the market has opened a hot switch, the new energy sector has shifted from high valuation to low valuation, and funds have shifted from hot to unpopular. Based on the above understanding, the A-share new energy sector has adjustment pressure, rapid flow of funds, and lack of follow-up lasting power. Next week will be dominated by a structural rebound, the performance of the reported performance does not meet expectations of individual stocks will affect the market sentiment, it is recommended to pay attention to the stocks that have been reported and have strong profitability.
Comments: The latest stock commentary of the helmsman's wife said that the A-share new energy sector has adjustment pressure, which makes many people a little panicked. After all, the last time she named Tianqi Lithium, the stock price has since collapsed (a 20% correction)! This time backstabbed the new energy sector, which is a track with a market value of several trillion yuan, and short-term new energy is going to the top?
In addition, citic Securities, a leading securities firm, also poured cold water, saying that the heat of the track sector has reached its peak, and the market has switched from hot to cold. Although there is no direct name, the meaning is very clear, do not touch the high track stock for the time being! CITIC suggested paying attention to the white horse leader of the "new half army", the medical equipment and innovative drugs of pharmaceutical stocks, and the subdivision of consumer stocks that have been damaged by the epidemic + high prosperity.
The mood of big A is always extreme, before photovoltaic and other new energy sources were YYDS; But on Friday, Tongwei entered the photovoltaic module, directly triggering the collective collapse of the track stocks! Then the weekend was sung empty, and the painting style became too fast. According to the view of ai stock jun, the new energy sector market has not yet ended, but the adjustment of high-level stocks will be there, and the internal of the industrial chain will also switch high and low, especially the cross-border hot spots should be kept away!
Speaking of the main helmsman's wife, after watching her judgment speech for a few weeks, objectively speaking, Ying Ying's point of view is quite reliable. But behind this "myth", is there any floating capital and institutional cooperation? Or harvest leeks through emotions! It is indeed a little worrying, the most ridiculous is the Chinese stock market, countless analysts, big coffee talk almost no one listens, a woman's point of view is flocked to, five tastes and miscellaneous ah.
Weekend KanShi:
A hot thing on the weekend, a 20-year college student in the United States, speculated in stocks for 1 month and earned 746 million yuan. The ticket bought is called 3B Home, which is a garbage stock, but dare to borrow more than $20 million at home, stud in, earn 4 times to escape the top, Buffett will be amazed.
Those who think that there is no insider trading in the US stock market can change their perceptions. Of course, this is not unusual, Big A often happens this kind of thing, but the gods are unconscious! And our news is that a certain college student speculates in stocks, and the living expenses given by his parents are lost. In a word, the muffled voice of big A making money is rich, and those who lose money are on the hot search.
U.S. stocks fell quite a bit on Friday, with the Nasdaq plunging 2 percent. Tell everyone a good news, A shares for 2 consecutive days than the US stocks fell better. Also tell a bad news, Chinese stocks and A50 have fallen, tomorrow there is no accident to open low.
There is a lot of big news on the weekend, the extension of the exemption from the purchase tax for new energy vehicles, the precise focus of the special loans of the state on "guaranteeing the delivery of the building", the reduction of the cost of enterprise + personal credit by the National Standing Committee, and the optimization of the inter-ministerial joint conference system of the State Council's birth policy work, which are all good stimuli. The bearishness is mainly power rationing, the fermentation of the epidemic, the rudder's wife singing short new energy, the US stock market plunge, etc...!
Overall, the week has been a volatile week, swinging between 3250-3300. But next week the bulls and bears may have to decide the winner or loser, the high probability is to first suppress the trend and then rise, hit near 3220, and launch an attack on 3300.
In terms of themes, observing the rebound of the low-level plates of real estate and financial sectors, new energy will differentiate, but it will not fall sharply, and there are still opportunities for branches such as green electricity and energy storage. The pan-tech sector should have a chance, but consumer electronics should be careful of the risk of Apple's new machine cashing in!
The other is the risk of reporting, it will soon be the end of August, the poor company is always late, there must be thunderstorms! Ningde's mid-report next Wednesday will also have a significant impact on new energy and may be a turning point.