On August 10, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida conducted a "lightning" personnel restructuring of the cabinet and the liberal democratic party leadership. Of the 19 cabinet members, only 5, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroichi Matsuno and Foreign Minister Hayashi Lam Fong-jeong, remained in office, while the remaining 14 posts were adjusted, bringing the number of cabinet members to nine who entered the cabinet for the first time.
Kishida said on the same day that he would "re-energize his spirits and break through the predicament with a new mood", stressing that "Japan is in the midst of the greatest dilemma after the war, and the political vacuum cannot be allowed for a moment."
On August 10, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a press conference at the Prime Minister's Residence in Tokyo, Japan. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Rodrigo Reyes Marin)
This adjustment can be called a "cabinet change". Analysts pointed out that Kishida reused the right-wing conservative forces once led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in this personnel restructuring, and announced a tough foreign policy at a press conference, showing a clear posture of "emphasizing security and neglecting people's livelihood".
However, as soon as the new cabinet appeared, it was revealed that many new cabinet members had various intersections with the "Unification Church." At the same time, many challenges such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic recovery are still severe, and the new Kishida cabinet is full of hidden dangers.
1. The new cabinet still has "Abe's shadow"
According to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) reported on the 10th, in the new cabinet of Kishida Fumio, Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroichi Matsuno, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, Minister of Economy and Finance Daishiro Yamaji, and Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Tetsuo Saito remained in office.
Screenshot of NHK report.
Katsunobu Kato, Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare, Yasuichi Hamada, Minister of Defense, Yasunori Nishimura, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Taro Kono, Minister in Charge of Digitalization, and Sanae Takaichi, Minister of Economic Security and Security, all re-entered the cabinet.
Minoru Terada, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, Yasuhiro Hari, Minister of Justice, Keiko Nagaoka, Minister of Education, Science and Technology, Tetsuro Nomura, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Akihiro Nishimura, Minister of the Environment, Kenya Akiba, Minister of Reconstruction, Koichi Tani, Minister of Public Security and Minister in Charge of Disaster Prevention, Naoki Okada, Minister of Local Creation, and Shonobu Kokura, Minister of Minor Development, entered the Cabinet for the first time.
In this regard, Chen Zilei, vice president of the National Japanese Economic Association and director of the Japan Economic Center of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, believes that "in terms of economy, Kishida hopes to employ experienced veterans; In terms of reforms, Kono's return shows that Kishida hopes to use the former's influence to further promote Japan's digitalization process. ”
It is worth noting that in this cabinet change, Shinzo Abe's younger brother and current Japanese Defense Minister Kishi Nobuo was out of the game and replaced by Yasuichi Hamada. Yasuichi Hamada served as Defense Minister from 2008 to 2009. As for Kishi Nobuo's exit, some Japanese media believe that Kishi Nobuo was replaced for physical reasons, but some Japanese media pointed out that Kishi Nobuo once admitted that members of the "Unification Church" had helped him run.
In addition, Hsanae Takashi, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party and Government, was appointed Minister of Economic Security and Security. Although Takashi does not belong to any faction within the Liberal Democratic Party, he was previously called "Abe's Shadow" by the Japanese media because of his close relationship with Shinzo Abe. In the LDP's adjustment, Ogi Ikuta, a major figure in the Abe faction, was appointed chairman of the LDP's political research committee, responsible for formulating the party's policies.
"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" commented on the 10th that Kishida's new cabinet is facing important issues such as the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, responding to high prices, stabilizing the supply of energy, and strengthening defense capabilities, and more than half of the cabinet members who remain in office and re-enter the cabinet reflect the characteristics of Kishida Fumio's "stability" and "emphasis on experience" in terms of platoon deployment.
Throughout the reorganization, Kishida used five of the LDP's eight major factions, namely the Kishida faction, the Aso faction, the Motegi faction, the Abe faction, and the second-order faction. In response, Mr. Chen said Kishida had increased his influence over the Liberal Democratic Party by balancing factions within the party, "And, judging by the people he employs, Mr. Abe's influence remains." ”
2. Dissociation from the "Unification Religion"?
A month ago, Kishida said after leading the Liberal Democratic Party to victory in the Senate election that he would reorganize the cabinet and the ruling party in September. Today, the restructuring is planned ahead of schedule. In this regard, Chen Zilei said that the sluggish support rate is the main reason, and the decline in Kishida's support rate is not unrelated to the current "unification religion" in Japan.
Amida's cabinet reshuffle comes as a latest poll conducted by Japanese media shows that Kishida's approval rating has slipped to 46 percent, the lowest since he officially became Prime Minister of Japan last October. Compared to the polls three weeks ago, Kishida's approval rating fell by 13 percentage points. At the same time, the unsupported rate rose by 7 percentage points to 28%.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is also a major minister in the Liberal Democratic Party, was accidentally killed in an attack on July 8, and the suspects said they believed that Abe was associated with the "Unification Church." Subsequently, the association between a number of Japanese politicians and the "unification religion" was successively exposed. According to a relevant investigation by TBS Television, 57 LDP MPs have spoken or sent congratulatory messages for activities related to the "Unified Education"; Thirteen LDP MPs ran for help from the Unification Church. This has led to a decline in popular trust in the government.
Therefore, Kishida was eager to investigate the connection between cabinet members and the "Unification Church" and rectify it, and to make explanations to the public in order to revitalize the cabinet's support. While testifying to his innocence before the August 6 reorganization, Kishida asked members of the Liberal Democratic Party to honestly review and report on their relationship with the group. In the aforementioned poll, when asked what cabinet members said about their association with the "Unification Church," a whopping 82 percent of respondents found their explanations unconvincing.
Affected by this, people who had been involved in the "Unification Church" were not allowed to enter the Cabinet. For example, Abe's confidant and former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagida, who addressed the organization's relevant meetings, was appointed chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party and Government Instead of entering the cabinet.
However, Koike Masaru, a former member of the House of Representatives of Japan, said that the Liberal Democratic Party is inextricably linked to the "Unification Religion," and in fact, Daishiro Yamaji and Sanae Takashi, who have joined the cabinet, have all been in contact with the "Unification Religion." On the 12th, the Japanese Mainichi Shimbun reported that there were 54 vice ministers and administrative officials in the restructured cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, of whom at least 19 had contact with the organization.
3. Personnel adjustment highlights ambition
The results of the current cabinet reshuffle and the adjustment of senior personnel of the Liberal Democratic Party show the following three characteristics:
First of all, retain the backbone that supports the center of the regime and maintain the political base.
Liberal Democratic Party Secretary Toshimitsu Motegi and Vice President Taro Aso remained in office. Motegi and Aso are the leaders of the LDP's second and third factions, respectively, and have a large voice in the party. After Kishida came to power, he held regular talks with the two men to exchange views on major issues such as the operation of the regime and the political agenda. Therefore, Kishida expects the two to continue to play the role of "ballast stone" to stabilize the political situation.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroichi Matsuno remained in office, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagida became Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party And Government Investigation Committee, and Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party and Government Investigation Committee Takashi Sanae became Minister of Economic Security. Although the Abe faction limited Kishida's political space, Kishida was never willing to see a disintegrating Abe faction. If the disorder of the faction continues to evolve, it will surely impact the stability of the Kishida government as a whole.
Therefore, Kishida gave the important position to the Abe parliamentarians or Abe's confidants, showing a gesture of appeasement and attention to them, and stopping their decline in flow and differentiation.
Second, we should pay attention to the balance of the deployment and strive for unity within the party in order to build a "party-raising system."
After Abe's death, the Largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Qinghehui (Abe faction), which he led during his lifetime, fell into a leaderless situation, and members competed for the position of president. At first, the "Kiyowakai" decided that shiotani and Shimomura Bowen would be in charge of daily affairs, but some members expressed dissatisfaction with the "double-headed system" of monopolizing the power of the two factions. Important figures such as Koichi Hagida, Hiroichi Matsuno, Yasunori Nishimura, and Hironai Seigeni have joined the competition queue. The "QingheHui" was hampered by internal contradictions, and the offensive into the cabinet was reduced. Taking this opportunity, Kishida was able to use other faction members to strive for a relative balance between factions in personnel arrangements.
Judging from the structure of the new cabinet, 5 of the 19 members remain in office, 5 are "old people" who have re-entered the cabinet, and 9 are "new people" who have just entered the cabinet.
From the perspective of factional distribution, among the 18 LDP cabinet members in the new cabinet, there are 4 Abe factions, 4 Aso factions, 3 Kishida factions, 3 Motegi factions, 2 second-order factions, and 2 non-faction factions; The chairman of the election countermeasure committee of the five important posts of the Liberal Democratic Party is Hiroshi Moriyama, chairman of the non-mainstream faction, Moriyama. After this adjustment, members of all factions of the LDP have held important positions in the government or within the party, reflecting Kishida's "balanced thinking".
In addition, Kishida reused Taro Kono, a "fierce enemy" who competed with him for the position of president of the Liberal Democratic Party last year, also for the sake of uniting the political party.
Third, continue the foreign security policy and forcibly promote the expansion of the military and the revision of the Constitution.
After the cabinet reorganization, Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshinori remained in office, and the Defense Minister replaced Kishi Nobuo, who was in poor health, with Yasuichi Hamada. Hamada had relevant work experience as Defense Minister during the Aso cabinet. This arrangement indicates Kishida's intention to maintain continuity and consistency in foreign security policy.
The Kishida government plans to complete the revision of the three major security documents of the "National Security Strategy," the "Defense Plan Outline," and the "Medium-Term Defense Strength Improvement Plan" by the end of this year, and is also trying to develop offensive armed forces and significantly increase defense costs. Therefore, in the diplomatic aspect, he retained his close associate Lin Fangzheng and revived his veteran Hamada in defense in an attempt to force the relevant targets to be completed as soon as possible.
4. The new cabinet is full of hidden dangers
Since the beginning of August, several polls in Japan have shown a sharp decline in kishida cabinet support, including popular opposition to the Kishida government's decision to hold a "state funeral" for Abe, questions about the ruling party's relationship with the United Religion, and dissatisfaction with the government's response to high prices and the inability to prevent and control the epidemic.
After Abe's assassination, the Kishida government vigorously publicized his so-called "merits" and decided to hold a "state funeral" for him in late September. However, the exposure of the series of shady scenes has significantly changed the japanese public's perception of Abe's assassination, and the support of kishida's cabinet has been dragged down. The latest polls show that more people in Japan oppose Abe's "state funeral" than those who support it.
One of the purposes of Kishida's "lightning-style" cabinet reorganization was to stop the loss in time, but as soon as the new cabinet appeared, it was exposed that many cabinet members had contacts with the "Unification Church." It is expected that the controversy over the "Unification Church" and Abe's "state funeral" will continue to erode the public support of the Kishida cabinet. According to a survey of emergency telephone opinion published by Kyodo News agency on August 12, "kishida cabinet support has not increased significantly."
At present, the long-term stagnation of the Japanese economy has caused many social contradictions. How to improve the people's livelihood economy is of great importance to Japan.
Japan's Ministry of Finance released the preliminary balance of payments for January-June 2022 on the 8th, showing that the current account surplus was 3.51 trillion yen (about 176 billion yuan), down 63.1% from the same period last year. Japan's Cabinet Office previously released the first quarter of 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), excluding price changes, real GDP fell by 0.1% compared with the previous quarter, and the conversion of the adult rate decreased by 0.5%.
At present, Japan's second quarter economic data has not yet been released, although a number of economic institutions predict that Japan's real GDP growth rate in the second quarter will turn from negative to positive, but the Japanese media believe that it is undeniable that the complex external situation is still not completely improving, Japan's economic recovery is still facing a test.
However, at the press conference, Kishida chose to introduce the new defense minister, Yasuichi Hamada, and said that fundamentally strengthening defense power is the most important topic in the new cabinet during the year; He then introduced Sanae Takashi, the minister in charge of economic security, saying that the new cabinet would promote the implementation of the Economic Security Promotion Act, the essence of which is to follow the United States in geopoliticalizing economic, trade, and industrial policy.
Kishida has previously said that he will complete the revision of the three major security documents by the end of the year, exploring all possible options, including the "counterattack capability" against the enemy. The Liberal Democratic Party has also proposed to the government to increase Japan's defense spending to 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from about 1 percent to 2 percent within five years. At the press conference, Kishida stressed that it will promote the strengthening of defense capacity building in terms of content, budget, and financial resources.
Analysts pointed out that although Kishida also continues to promote his so-called "new capitalist" governance concept, judging from his relevant cabinet selection and policy declarations, Kishida's new cabinet has a clear posture of "emphasizing security and neglecting people's livelihood", and has been contaminated with a lot of American Cold War thinking in terms of security concepts.
Pedestrians wearing masks walk the streets of Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan, on July 29. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Xiaoyu
In addition, a new wave of COVID-19 is still raging in Japan. Statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare show that the number of new confirmed cases in Japan exceeded 250,000 for the first time on the 10th, a new high since the outbreak of the epidemic. Hospital beds are severely tight throughout Japan, and there have been repeated cases of patients who have worsened their condition or even died due to the inability to send them to the hospital in time.
Analysts believe that although Kishida's new cabinet intends to put security as a top priority, it is likely to face a new dilemma in the face of various tests of prices, energy, epidemic and people's livelihood.
Lookout Think Tank Synthesized from: Xinhua News Agency, First Finance, Global Times
Column Editor-in-Chief: Zhang Wu Text Editor: Lu Xiaochuan Caption Source: Visual China Image Editor: Yong Kai
Source: Author: Lookout Think Tank