"As the US economy and dollar hegemony fall into an increasingly serious crisis, the de-Americanization and diversification of the international financial system have become an irreversible tide of history."
"The current US dollar system is facing the dual challenges of its own credit crisis and sovereign digital currency reform, which brings important opportunities for the internationalization of the renminbi."
"At present, what is the resistance to ending the hegemony of the us dollar?"
In the 155th episode of "This Is China" broadcast by Oriental Satellite TV on August 8, Professor Zhang Weiwei, dean of the Institute of China Studies at Fudan University, and Liu Dian, a specially invited associate researcher, discussed the "crisis of dollar hegemony".
Zhang Weiwei:
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and western countries imposed bottomless sanctions on Russia, and even the principle of the sanctity and inviolability of private property that they have always adhered to did not want, they froze if they wanted to freeze, and confiscated if they wanted to confiscate, the United States has done this to Iran, Venezuela, Afghanistan and other countries, but these countries are relatively weak, this time they have got Russia, a nuclear power, it has frozen the foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves of the Russian state, and frozen and even confiscated Russia's private funds and property in the West.
In fact, the United States has made a major cognitive mistake, it still thinks it can do whatever it wants, and the world has already entered the "post-American era." The goal of the United States in sanctioning Russia is very clear, to turn Russia into an outcast of the international community and the ruble into a piece of waste paper.
However, Putin's Russia resolutely counterattacked, came a "table-lifting" revolution, and used a paper "ruble settlement order" to turn the currency war launched by the United States into a war of "goods" and "coins": Russia has "goods", the West has "coins", the result is that the ruble has appreciated sharply, and Russia can be said to have initially won this currency war.
It also reminds me of 11 years ago, in June 2011, when I was debating with Fukuyama, I also touched on this issue. At the time, he thought that the financial crisis of 2008 had nothing to do with the American democratic system, which was still a very good system — especially compared to the so-called "authoritarian" system in China.
I responded this way, I said: The West feels that its system is still the best, in fact, this system is more and more problematic, the birthplace of Western democracy, Greece has gone bankrupt, the British government debt accounts for 90% of GDP, close to bankruptcy. As for the United States, I made a simple calculation: "9/11" cost the United States $1 trillion, two unintelligent wars (Afghanistan, Iraq) lost $3 trillion, and the financial crisis lost $8 trillion. The U.S. debt is now $10 trillion to $20 trillion. In other words, without the dollar's international monetary monopoly — and that position is not permanent — the United States is bankrupt.
Kabul International Airport, crowds waiting to be evacuated poured into the apron.
When I said this 11 years ago, I saw that the United States was a heavily indebted mud-footed giant, and once the world really recognized this, the dollar edifice could collapse. But what happens will be the last straw that will overwhelm the camel, and I have been watching.
As an international settlement currency, several conditions are generally required: one is good credit, the second is that the value of the currency is relatively stable, and the third is sufficient liquidity. Now the good credit of the United States is no longer there, and it can even be said that the credit is very bad, and the Abuse of dollar sanctions by the United States and the weaponization of the dollar are undoubtedly the main reasons.
Similarly, the United States' over-issuance of currency, financial release, and high debt have also affected the stability of the dollar's currency. The decline of the pound that year was largely due to britain's accumulation of large amounts of debt in the Second World War, making international investors increasingly reluctant to hold the pound. Shortly after the end of World War II, the pound was replaced by the dollar.
In other words, among these three elements, the credit of the US dollar has been deeply shaken, the stability of the currency has also been shaken, and only liquidity is sufficient, which I think also means that the process of de-dollarization in the world will accelerate.
We know that the key to the dollar's ability to maintain its position as the world's dominant currency is that it has some absolute advantages in international reserve and trade settlement, especially in commodity settlement. But now we can see that this status has been shaken. Russia began its de-dollarization process in 2014. In 2019, Russia no longer pays in US dollars in crude oil and gas transactions, but instead pays in euros or other currencies. Now Russia has decided that it must trade gas in rubles for "unfriendly countries" and is ready to expand to food and other areas, which are weakening the position of the dollar.
Saudi Arabia also publicly stated in 2019 that it threatened to abandon dollar settlement. Countries such as Iran and Turkey, which are sanctioned by the United States, began to de-dollarize as early as 2018. In February 2018, Iran announced the termination of the US dollar as an official clearing currency; In August 2018, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey would pay in its own currency for Russia, China, Iran and Ukraine, and the euro for the EU.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States increased sanctions against Russia, and many countries with close trade with Russia, such as India, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, etc., said that they could trade with Russia in local currency bypassing the US dollar. In short, the more the United States imposes sanctions on countries with larger commodity trade, the more it will accelerate the process of global de-dollarization.
Even Goldman Sachs pointed out in a study in April this year that since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the US sanctions against Russia have had a chain reaction, and many governments have begun to accelerate de-dollarization. The Goldman Sachs report argues that sanctions that excessively disrupt global financial flows could lead to financial transactions beginning to shift completely outside the United States. Sanctions on Russia's central bank could cause countries to reconsider the use of the dollar in trade and finance, which would threaten the dollar's status as the world's currency and affect the dollar exchange rate in the medium to long term.
Recently we've seen a series of reports that many major countries, including China, are stepping up their de-dollarization:
First, China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany and other countries holding a large number of US debt are selling US debt;
Second, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his speech at the opening ceremony of the BRICS Business Forum, "We are working with our BRICS partners to develop a reliable alternative mechanism for international settlement." We are studying the possibility of establishing an international reserve currency based on the BRICS basket of currencies. ”
Third, the RBI announced on July 11 that it would launch a rupee settlement mechanism for international trade, which would take effect immediately. Of course, India does not have as many resources as Russia, nor as many products as China, and the effect of the "rupee settlement order" remains to be seen.
Fourth, when India's largest cement producer Chaoke Cement imported a batch of 157,000 tons of Russian coal, it used RMB to pay, and the value of the goods was estimated to be about 170 million yuan, the amount of payment this time is not large, but for the first time between Russia and India, RMB was used for trade settlement. The world's major media have done extensive coverage and have talked about the enormous exemplary significance it could have.
Fifth, according to a report by Xinhua News Agency on June 20, the Notice on Supporting Cross-border RMB Settlement of New Foreign Trade Formats issued by the People's Bank of China was officially implemented on July 21. Many media have described this as the "RMB settlement order" launched by China, and I think this is also an important step taken by China, and its significance should not be underestimated. China's economy is much larger than Russia's. The document proposes that China will support a series of important measures such as RMB settlement rights and payment rights in new foreign trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce.
Sixth, China is also stepping up the use of the digital yuan and accelerating the construction of the RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS), with a view to establishing a RMB cross-border payment system with its own ecosystem outside the International Fund Clearing System (SWIFT). With the advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the ecosystem of RMB internationalization in the entire non-Western world is taking shape.
Digital RMB wallet (infographic). Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Zhonghao
In short, with the collapse of the US national credibility and the US dollar credit, China, as the world's largest economy (according to purchasing power parity), the largest goods trading country, the largest consumer market, the largest investment market, and the most complete manufacturing industry chain, is actively and steadily promoting the construction of the economic and financial order in the "post-American era". Some of Russia's pioneering practices also have a lot of inspiration for China.
Of course, China has its own national conditions, and we still have a lot of dollars and US debt. I have suggested in this program that we should promote the establishment of a parallel transnational financial system anchored on the renminbi and physical products. As the US economy and dollar hegemony fall into an increasingly serious crisis, the de-Americanization of the international financial system, the de-SWIFT (International Fund Clearing System), and multipolarization, I think it has become an irreversible tide of history, and we can do more.
I will share this with you today, and we will invite Liu Dian, a specially invited associate researcher of the Institute of Chinese Studies of Fudan University, to give a speech to you. Thank you!
Liu Dian:
Teacher Zhang's speech just now systematically analyzed the crisis facing the US dollar hegemony, so I also want to talk about the three phenomena of the US dollar hegemony crisis from three aspects, as well as some important variables in the future global currency competition pattern.
The first phenomenon is that from a historical point of view, the foundation of dollar hegemony is facing an "eight-magnitude earthquake" triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The biggest harm brought to the United States by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is to directly expose the political, unstable and insecure nature of the US dollar as the world currency to the world. Historically, this is not the first time the dollar has broken the rules. As early as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States was unable to face the increase in domestic inflation and its own dollar over-issuance, and it was not willing to repay its debts like the United Kingdom after world war I, but instead refused to assume the obligation of exchanging dollars for gold, no longer abided by the rules, and directly announced the decoupling of the dollar and gold, and the Federal Reserve also changed from a monetary policy formulation and regulator to an institution that intervened and manipulated global wealth and economic power.
Credit is the most important pillar of the dollar system, and it is precisely because of the trust in the security and stability of the dollar system that countries around the world will reserve a large number of dollars and use the dollar as the most important international trade settlement currency. In history, the United States has repeatedly broken the rules, but often this kind of rule-breaking behavior still has a certain bottom line.
As it is today, the unscrupulous use of "financial nuclear bombs" based on national interests and the freezing of foreign exchange reserves of other countries are still rare in history. Therefore, this frequent "table-lifting" move has made the dollar gradually lose its credibility with the world.
The second phenomenon is that when the dollar hegemony encounters a crisis, the dollar will become stronger, and at the same time, the global financial situation will become more volatile.
Some phenomena are counterintuitive when the dollar hegemony is facing a crisis, and we can see that in every financial crisis, the dollar will go against the trend. Some people use the strengthening of the dollar as an argument that the dollar hegemony has not encountered a crisis, but it ignores the problem that in fact such a strong force is achieved at the cost of passing the crisis to other economies. For example, the yen, the euro, etc. have recently suffered a sharp depreciation, and the vast number of developing countries have suffered from it, and small economies such as Sri Lanka cannot withstand the toss, resulting in the bankruptcy of national credit.
Composition of Sri Lanka's debt
In the past, countries around the world endured the "bullying" of dollar hegemony because the systemic collapse of the international financial order was a disastrous consequence for all countries in the world, and the harm it caused to the world economy may be far higher than the cost of dollar hegemony. So the dollar hegemony can in turn "kidnap" the countries of the world and make them endure the pain of being sheared to support the continued operation of the system. But now, when the dollar hegemony itself becomes a source of fear for the collapse of the international financial "system," its foundations will be fundamentally conceptually impacted.
The third phenomenon is that the era of dollar hegemony dominating the international financial system may gradually come to an end. Looking to the future, we will see a new era of fierce global monetary sovereignty. The reason why the dollar hegemony is arrogant is that the United States controls the dominance of the global market, and through the exchange of economic benefits, let the countries that enter the world market either actively or passively accept a condition, that is, to cede part of the monetary sovereignty in order to obtain an economic convenience in the global monetary and financial system.
This brings us to another revolutionary layer of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the global monetary system. That is, Russia has taken back its monetary sovereignty from the international financial order dominated by the United States and Europe by directly anchoring local currency and energy transactions, which directly shakes the important foundation of the "petrodollar".
The world has been suffering for a long time. Russia fired the first shot against the hegemony of the dollar, and the most critical thing is that this rebel was not defeated, so that the countries of the world saw the essence of the dollar system. Therefore, as Teacher Zhang mentioned before, more and more countries have joined the process of de-dollarization, trying various ways to get back the monetary sovereignty that has been ceded, and this revolution is quietly happening.
Finally, it should be emphasized that there is a very important new variable in the current pattern of global currency competition, that is, countries around the world are actively developing sovereign digital currencies, and the wave of global sovereign digital currencies will also pose a revolutionary challenge to the hegemony of the US dollar.
In the past, if a country wanted to get rid of the dollar-dominated settlement system, for example, to establish its own system, it was very difficult in terms of cost and practicality, and fundamentally it was impossible to bypass the dollar settlement system in the world economic system. But now digital currency provides a new technical implementation solution for de-dollarization, that is, through big data, blockchain and other technologies, gradually build a new currency clearing and settlement network. Therefore, many countries are actively promoting the research and development and pilot of sovereign digital currencies.
Some studies have pointed out that in the future, it is likely to form a "digital currency area" based on the formation of major digital currencies, with multiple coexistence, that is to say, in the era of sovereign digital currencies, there will be a new stage of "competing for deer".
At present, the US dollar system is facing the dual challenges of its own credit crisis and sovereign digital currency reform, which brings an important opportunity for the internationalization of the renminbi. China should attach importance to the role of the renminbi in future bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, such as the "Belt and Road" initiative, or the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), etc., where a large amount of trade and investment will become an important scenario for the use of the renminbi. On the other hand, it is also necessary to focus on the future development of the digital yuan. China's research and development and pilot in related fields are now moving very fast and attracting international attention. The digital economy ecology with good development trends in China will also provide an important impetus for the international circulation of the digital yuan.
Countries around the world are currently looking for an alternative to how to put "eggs" in a "basket", and China's good sovereign credit will also make the renminbi a reasonable choice for countries to reduce the proportion of DOLLAR assets. Coupled with the current wave of digital development of the global monetary system, this will also provide an important period of strategic opportunity for the establishment of a transnational financial system anchored on the renminbi and physical products.
For China, it is also necessary to seize the opportunity to make a difference, but more importantly, to be vigilant against the violent turbulence in the international financial market. Because for the foreseeable future, risks and challenges are likely to come one after another. Therefore, China's monetary policy should adhere to the principle of "taking me as the mainstay" and take into account internal and external balance. We must maintain a prudent monetary policy and a stable and good economic development trend, so that we can firmly grasp the initiative of future development in our own hands, thank you!
Roundtable Discussion:
Moderator: Thank you for your presentations, both of which are very systematic in their expositions of dollar hegemony. Then I am thinking, if some friends are also in contact with the concept of dollar hegemony, with a few words so that everyone can understand what is dollar hegemony at once, Teacher Liu, what would you say?
Liu Dian: It is the United States that uses the status of the US dollar as the world currency for personal gain, which is actually the hegemony of the US dollar. And its whole routine is relatively simple, first of all, it allows your country to form a monetary dependence on it (the US dollar) through a series of systems of economic globalization.
The monetary sovereignty of the equivalent of a part of your country is surrendered, especially this time, the United States has taken advantage of the status of the using the dollar [as the world's currency] to undermine Russia's economy and exclude it from the world economic system. In fact, for many countries, this is an unbearable pain.
Zhang Weiwei: After this self-interest, it also has a whole set of "philosophy", it is your wool, and it is your problem, not my problem, like Soros engaged in so many financial crises, when the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir said, our 20 years of development achievements, within a few days you ruined.
Then the West said it was your problem, your Crony capitalism, crony capitalism, your corruption, government intervention, and so on, and the debate was fierce. Asian countries say that we think the main reason is Casino capitalism, that is, casino capitalism, is that you "financial predators" deliberately do the game and then let us fall into the trap.
When we talk about the hegemony of the dollar, we want to mention the harm it has caused to the world, and one of the main harms is to constantly create financial crises, and every once in a while, a number of countries have become victims, and some countries do not know how many times they have been harvested, such as Argentina.
Liu Dian: After the end of World War II, the United States promoted the "troika", that is, the International Monetary Fund (International Monetary Fund), the World Bank, and even the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which later evolved into the WTO (World Trade Organization). Through a series of institutional arrangements, it has formed a current world economic system. While it dominates an order, it has formed a very powerful dollar hegemony, and since the end of World War II, its self-interest behavior has actually been carried out.
For example, Latin American countries are regarded as "back gardens" by the United States. One scholar wrote a book called "The Cut Blood Vessels of Latin America," which actually goes into a lot of details, which is how Latin American countries are harvested every five to ten years. So we can see that it is the harvest of dollar hegemony that has a routine, and below the medium crisis, it harvests some small countries. Then when there are some big crises, some small countries can't harvest. It will look for the next target, especially to anchor some countries with medium-sized economies and above.
Infographic
Host: Maybe in the concept of dollar hegemony, at the critical moment, you have to block a knife for me, maybe once you block it, you may not be able to see this essence, every time you block the knife, every time you carry the pot, the more you see it, the more you understand.
Zhang Weiwei: You can look back at the financial crisis in 2008, the United States really has no money, it wants to issue bonds, no one buys bonds, so Hillary Clinton himself, and Treasury Secretary Paulson came to China, that is, to let you take the lead in buying our US bonds, so that other countries will buy. Hillary clinton was like a salesman at the time, saying how good our U.S. debt is, how safe it is, how it has credit, you should buy it, and now we Chinese see this problem very clearly.
Liu Dian: The US dollar is actually a contribution to the development of the world economy and the promotion of economic globalization. But back to that, for any sovereign state, it has costs to maintain such a system, and it has both benefits and costs.
So what's the problem with the United States? That is, when it wants benefits, it all wants, and when it has to share the cost, you bear it, or I try to bear as little as possible. Especially in some crisis moments, the dollar, as the world's dominant currency, should maintain such a benign operation of the world system, and the United States should assume such a role. But every time it is at this time, let everyone sweep the snow in front of the door, and even I sweep my snow to you, let you pay for me, which is a very important issue.
Moderator: Teacher Zhang also cited some cases in his speech, and my question is whether these (emerging financial systems) will still be just individual cases, and whether they want to enter an institutionalized and systematic international settlement, is the current proportion not high enough, and how much is the shake of the dollar hegemony?
Zhang Weiwei: Sometimes [the change of the international monetary system] sometimes comes much faster than we think, and once it becomes a trend, it will become unstoppable. You look at the RMB payment, we talked about the Indian cement company today, and the iron ore in Australia is also paid in RMB. This is a demonstration role, which may lead many enterprises to do this together. I think with the size of China, we can be a little more active, we can ask for more RMB payments. Of course, we also have a speciality, we still have so many dollars, US debt, this we have to use it well. But in any case, this general trend is the multipolarization of the international payment system and the international financial system, and China can be an important pole in the middle.
Moderator: Yes, as Teacher Zhang said, the key is that this potential has risen, but how big this potential can be, we still have to look at it slowly, but at least the trend.
Liu Dian: Because there is actually a core concept in this, that is, the monetary sovereignty mentioned in my previous speech, because each country does not want to put its "eggs" in a "basket", so where is it placed? If you choose the euro and choose the yen, what is the essential difference between it and putting it in the dollar? China's renminbi, including our sovereign credit, it is actually very good.
This monetary policy in China has come out of a new cycle that is slightly at odds with the US monetary policy cycle. From the Sino-US trade war in 2018 to the present, in fact, we have opened up a path of relative independence, why many countries now choose the renminbi, this is the truth, we have relatively independent monetary sovereignty.
Zhang Weiwei: In addition, from a macro point of view, China is the world's largest trade in goods, all countries have to trade with China, it needs rmb, this trend is placed here.
Questions from the audience:
Audience 1: Good two teachers, good host, I am an industry analyst and a returnee in the United States. Recently, it was noted that Biden visited the Middle East, and it should still be said that he wants to alleviate this inflation problem at home through oil production in the Middle East. Then, Putin will also visit the Middle East and unite with Iran to play the card of crude oil. In this Middle East game, this crude oil war between the United States and Russia, who will be the final winner? Thank you teacher.
Zhang Weiwei: I watched Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia, as if what he was most looking forward to was to hope that Saudi Arabia could increase oil production and reduce oil prices, but he did not do it, and from international reports, it seems that he has not achieved any results. Because Saudi Arabia now has relatively good relations with Russia, and then relations with the United States have not returned to normal, especially with Biden. From the current point of view, I think I am afraid that oil prices will still run high.
Liu Dian: From another point of view, that is, the high price of energy, in fact, there is no complete harm to the United States. The one that hurts the most is the European Union. So in the process we have to see the name and the truth of the problem, on the one hand, it (the United States) as an ally, it needs to do something nominally.
But in fact, the current high energy prices have a certain impact on its domestic inflation, but the core problem of domestic inflation is not entirely energy- U.S. policymakers are well aware that the lesser of two evils is the lesser of a two-pronged process, so it looks like this so-called dispute between Russia and the United States over oil pricing power. But in fact, in this regard, the United States is also a common interest.
Audience 2: Hello host, good two teachers, I am a veteran, now engaged in sales work in the new energy industry, recently the United States and the West have repeatedly attacked the mainland on the issue of African debt, then the Chinese Foreign Ministry has also refuted it in a timely manner. I would like to ask the two teachers how you view the situation and prospects of Africa's debt problem, and how you look at the role of China in it.
Zhang Weiwei: African countries "debt crisis", the Western media has been speculating for several years, now we see the data is very clear, in fact, the vast majority of the debt owed by African countries is debt to Western private banks, or financial institutions, we see the data, they owe three times the debt to Western financial institutions than to Chinese financial institutions, and their interest rates are twice as high as Chinese institutions.
China has invested in many countries in Africa, and it is really discussing, co-building and sharing with each other, so most of our investment is infrastructure projects, and it will eventually add value, as long as those countries are not chaotic. Therefore, it is different from Western countries that invest a lot of resources and funds in consumer goods, and investing in these aspects is not the same.
On January 11, 2017, the reception ceremony of the first batch of freight locomotives of the Mombasa-Nairobi railway project, built by China Road and Bridge Engineering Co., Ltd., was held at the Port of Reitz Station in Kenya, where the railway originated. (Photo by Xinhua news agency reporter Sun Ruibo)
Liu Dian: I think this hype around the "debt crisis" actually has a discursive trap, because in history, Western countries have provided a large number of loans, and behind it (the borrowing country) has guaranteed some of the relevant national sovereignty to the relevant loans. So what is the Western countries talking about every time they hype this crisis? In fact, it is an attempt to acquiesce to China, you are like us, what are you lending money for, you are interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, you are going to control and expand your regional influence.
So what do we want to talk about at the core of China? We want to build a community with a shared future for mankind, we have such a philosophical wisdom in our East, we are based on a concept of righteousness and profit, that is, righteousness and profit, which is often dialectical. Like we invest a lot of infrastructure, the return on investment in the short term is actually relatively poor. But in the long run, when a society, after the infrastructure is repaired, in fact, it activates all kinds of blood and all kinds of organisms in your entire economy, and you will slowly rejuvenate into new vitality. But in the eyes of the West, it is to put it in a very small pattern to see what we do.
Zhang Weiwei: You see that even if the United States provides vaccines, it must let people take assets as collateral.
Host: Yes, but speaking of the hype issue of this "debt trap", now that so many years have passed, it has proved that China is doing a very good job, objectively speaking, is there less hype smear like this?
Zhang Weiwei: In fact, as long as you look at the leaders of the Media, polls, and governments in Africa, they are all realistic and realistic, and their account is very clear. The latest poll I saw is that young people in Africa feel that China has brought a very good impact on Africa, that is, the younger generation is optimistic about China, more optimistic about the United States.
This is not easy, because now is the time when the United States and the Western media have the bottom line and the most unscrupulous attack on China, but at this time, if you look at the polls in Africa, the polls in Southeast Asia, and the polls in Latin America, the polls in China are generally more favorable, which is very telling.
Audience 3: Hello three teachers, my name is Li Yixuan, is a fresh graduate of high school, my question today is, as far as the current view is, what is the resistance to ending the hegemony of the dollar, in the newer, fairer, more just world monetary system, what role can the dollar play? Thank you.
Zhang Weiwei: I myself think that it is not the end of the dollar hegemony, and this will not be so fast. But I think there is a multipolarization of the financial system, the payment system, which is what we will see more and more, and China is one of the poles.
In addition, in fact, with the size of China's economy, the volume of foreign trade, the volume of foreign exchange reserves, including the volume of dollar reserves, we can do a lot of things, in fact, in the "Belt and Road" initiative, we have spent a lot of dollars, these dollars are actually creating some assets and wealth that are beneficial to us.
Then there are also scholars who discuss, for example, we can build an Asian dollar market in China. That is to say, if you borrow dollars in the future, you may not necessarily borrow from the United States, and borrowing in the Chinese market may have a better exchange rate, more favorable conditions, and so on. In short, our existing dollar assets, dollar reserves, etc., can still do a lot of articles. I think multipolarization is the first step.
Host: In fact, many people are worried that we have so many dollars in hand, when the United States enters a relatively crazy state, will our assets suffer some impact?
Liu Dian: The future hypothesis, whether it is the end of the dollar hegemony or a change in the international monetary system, this change will not be a peaceful change, but a very drastic change.
Because we can see from history, you see from the pound sterling to the dollar, it was generally such a relatively peaceful transition of power between the major countries of the Western world, but what happened then? World War I, World War II, the whole of Europe at that time was torn apart by war. Now that we're talking about the end of this dollar hegemony, or a crisis it's facing, we must not underestimate the potential impact it will have on the world order in the process of its future order decay, which I think needs to be paid extra attention to, and before it ends, it will definitely have action.
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