Today is actually a lot of news, I see a lot of people also interpreted a surprise, originally I also wrote some of their own views, but think about it are deleted, macro things in these months will not be mentioned. First of all, the key nodes, more talk is noisy; Second, the causes and effects are complex, and the partial results themselves are not very important.
Several state-owned enterpriseS ADR itself in the United States liquidity is very poor, the impact is actually not large, the so-called delisting, in fact, also shows that the two sides basically clear the boundary. Instead, it's like the dust has settled, not a comeback. Zhu Xiaohu's interpretation is to keep the channel for technology companies to go public in the United States, which is also quite reasonable.
In fact, everyone has already expected social finance data, and a fund manager who tracks the market closely before chatted about the market in June and August. When the real estate sales data rose in June, he saw that the future market was an improvement in the structure of social finance data, so the economic-related assets would take the index up a step. In August, when the relevant high-frequency data did not support this assertion, he looked at the future market as an inflationary recession, and in this environment, he believed that the industry in the boom track could cope with the volatile market.
I personally understand that if it is an inflationary recession, is it better to directly allocate upstream assets? In fact, today Yanzhou Energy has reached a record high.
Many rumors in these two days are very interesting, such as the previous two days that the quantitative giant private equity magic party persuaded customers to redeem 1000 index increases. Although the high-profile official statement behind the magic side does not have this problem, it is probably windless, at least some channels have put forward such views.
In fact, the recent trend of the CSI 1000 is very strong, which is also related to the listing of several CSI 1000 ETFs. Qiu Dongrongdu came to make a scene and opened the purchase limit of Zhonggeng small and medium-sized caps, and it was said that 2 billion funds poured in in a few days, and it was quickly closed. The market is really not short of money, there is a lack of good products, if Jin Yuan Shun An Yuan Qi opens the purchase limit at the moment, I estimate that the scale rushed to 10 billion is really a matter of minutes.
Two days ago, an index fund manager told me that going over 50 and 1000 may be a cost-effective long-short strategy at the moment. In fact, I can understand the logic behind it, the economic data is not good, the valuation of 50 is low, and the expectation of getting up is very strong; On the contrary, the CSI 1000 is currently bustling, and the transaction structure is actually loose.
In fact, there is a rather complicated background behind this, the trend of core assets and small and medium-sized caps actually began to part ways in early 2021, and the small and medium-sized markets have been strong for two years.
The reason for this fork is largely because core assets are absorbing the rising valuation since 2019. A shares lack short-selling means, so it is easy to have a continuous overvaluation, but this overvaluation will eventually pay a price, either time (sideways) or space (falling).
Personally, in my investment methodology for boom tracks, I don't pay much attention to this aspect of valuation, and I am a bit receptive to incompetence. Therefore, in the past investment, it has basically stepped on a lot of sunrise industries. Looking back, I can still accept the methodology of the rotation of boom assets like Zhang Hui, and there is no confidence in the specific track, but some methods with confidence can be configured.
Many people are starting to see the divergence between core assets and the mid- and mid-cap return, which may also be the next important market change. Fan Jituo said before that the third quarter looks at equilibrium, and the fourth quarter looks at value. In general, in an increasingly chaotic world, long-end assets (boom tracks) always have to be discounted.
The configuration at this stage is definitely to pursue no wind and rain and no sunshine, no matter what strange changes occur in the market, the combination will not have unacceptable fluctuations.
Recently, it has been deeply felt that we are in an era where any disturbance may bring about the butterfly effect. Recently, seeing the news that the lower level of the Rhine has exacerbated Germany's energy crisis, I feel senseless on the one hand, and on the other hand, I realize that the impact is real. The world used to be very resilient, no matter what happened, it seemed that the order would not be disrupted, and now somehow, it was very fragile at once, and the slightest incident would cause chaos in the world.
This requires us not to do extreme configuration. When investing, be sure to keep a margin of safety. To rule the world is to gamble, and to be in a chaotic world, it is necessary to configure.
Finally, I will answer some of your questions, maybe not necessarily in a timely manner, but try to be true. If you have any thoughts and questions about buying funds, you can send me a private message.
Q: Parents will have a spare money, on 20w, currently plan to most of the money lending base, 5 points or so stable fluctuations of small, a small part of the chaobao, beaver? A 2-pip fixed deposit in a bank is the most chicken rib, right?
A: In the question of the investment of a sum of money, I will pay attention to three aspects: 1. Investment period; 2. Investment risk appetite; 3. Investment objectives. After figuring out these things, I will think about how to achieve them.
Back to the need itself.
The investment period should be uncertain, maybe the money is not used for a long time, maybe tomorrow to buy a car or something, the liquidity of the investment is actually required, buying and selling redemption to facilitate.
Regarding risk appetite, according to the description, the parents' spare money and then the original intended investment are also low risk. My understanding is that the risk appetite of this money is between R1-R2, both low risk investments.
The investment goal I understand is also to outperform the bank's wealth management, and it does not require too high a return.
The main tools of idle money wealth management include: bank t+0; monetary funds; Interbank Certificate of Deposit Fund; Short-term debt funds
Monetary funds and banks T+0 have been under pressure for the past two years, and overall, I think it will become more and more inconvenient to allocate. So my understanding is that this money can be matched with two or three short-term and medium-term bond funds. As for the 5 points or so you said, it is actually necessary to contain a little equity allocation, otherwise it is difficult to achieve this yield.
For the debt base, I would rather allocate a secondary debt base containing stocks and bear some fluctuations, rather than sink the credit in exchange for income, otherwise it is really slow to make money and lose money quickly.
The allocation principle of the debt base has been talked about a lot, try to choose the bond factory, pay more attention to the direction of the debt base of the institutional allocation.
In general, if you feel very troublesome, in fact, now many investment products, there are also that kind of small fluctuation strategy, the bank of communications, Xing all have, that is really quite worry-free, that is, the fluctuation may be slightly larger.