Teacher Ye Xiaodi gave a lecture on the tenth issue of the "National Political Scholars and Youth Forum"
On the afternoon of August 8, 2022, the "Youth Forum" column of the academic platform of "National Political Scholars" invited Ye Xiaodi, a lecturer at the School of International Relations of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies and a young scholar in Yunshan, to interpret the theoretical logic of the US Taiwan-related policy behind the "Pelosi Channeling Incident" through the Tencent Conference Platform.
Teacher Ye Xiaodi put the hot event of "Pelosi Channeling" on a long timeline for analysis, and interpreted the theory and historical origin behind the hot event to the audience layer by layer and in a simple and simple way from the linkage logic between the US China policy and the Taiwan-related policy, the evolutionary logic and specific strategy of the US Taiwan-related policy, the new thinking and new logic of the Biden administration's Taiwan-related policy, and the "Pelosi Channeling" incident.
First of all, teacher Ye Xiaodi pointed out that there is an obvious linkage and logical relationship between the US China policy and the Taiwan-related policy, and when the MORE tough the US Policy toward China, the worse the changes in its Taiwan-related policy will be, which is reflected in the obvious retrospective phenomenon of the "pro-Taiwan forces" in the US Congress, the emergence of the great debate on Taiwan-related policies in the United States, and the marked increase in the introduction of Taiwan-related bills. Xiaodi Ye combined her published article (Xiaodi, Ye, "To Engage or not to Engage?" Explaining the Logic of US China Strategy in Post-Cold-War Era,”The Journal of Chinese Political Science, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 449-484.), explains the two influencing factors of the evolution of US Taiwan-related policies, including the STRATEGIC tendencies of the United States toward China and the policy choices of the Taiwan authorities toward the United States. By grasping the internal logic of these factors and the specific policy form behind them, we will help us better understand and grasp the differences and changes in the US Taiwan-related policies, and we can find countermeasures in a more appropriate way. Specifically, the U.S. strategy toward China has three strategic tendencies, namely contact-oriented, competitive-cooperative-oriented, and containment-oriented; The Taiwan authorities' policy toward the United States can be divided into three types: hedging, following, and bundling. By matching these two independent variables, we can obtain six forms of US Taiwan-related policy: strategic ambiguity, control of "Taiwan independence" forces, between strategic ambiguity and partial strategic clarity, partial strategic clarity, extreme pressure, and strategic clarity. Combined with reality, judging from the current actions of the Biden administration, Professor Ye Xiaodi judged that the upper limit of the Biden administration's Taiwan policy is the ultimate pressure link, and will not break through this upper limit to adopt a strategically clear policy, but we should not have overly optimistic expectations.
Subsequently, Professor Ye Xiaodi analyzed the new changes in the old phenomenon of the US Taiwan-related alliance cooperation, and explained the logic of Biden's new Thinking on Taiwan. By comparing the different Taiwan-related policies of the Trump administration and the Biden administration, we can see that the Trump administration tends to unilaterally exert maximum pressure, while the Biden administration has undergone a significant change, and Biden prefers multilateral joint intervention under the "American plus" model. The Biden administration has taken advantage of the advantages of the asymmetric alliance as the dominant country to set the agenda, setting the Taiwan-related issue as the main strategic starting point for reorganizing the alliance system, inducing allies to form a linkage on Taiwan-related issues and jointly intervene in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, so as to achieve its purpose of strengthening the strategic effect of containment of China. Regarding the setting of Taiwan-related issues in the United States, Professor Ye pointed out that the United States has used three methods: including "two-faced methods", shaping the role of Taiwan's "partners" in terms of values, enhancing the sense of resonance of allies on the Taiwan issue, and incorporating the Taiwan region into "exclusive multilateralism" to diversify allies to intervene in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, etc., and this phenomenon of alliance cooperation has also brought great negative impacts. In this regard, Professor Ye Xiaodi pointed out that we should accurately distinguish the strategic needs, strategic persistence and degree of intervention of US allies in interfering in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and adopt differentiated policies to deal with it. In the face of behavior that challenges China's strategic bottom line, it is necessary to make precise strikes and countermeasures, and show bottom-line thinking; Emphasis should be placed on blocking the way for "Taiwan independence" to internationalize and cutting off its linkage effect with US allies.
Finally, teacher Ye Xiaodi analyzed the essence of the recent Pelosi "Channeling Incident" and put forward his own thoughts on relevant countermeasures. First, the Pelosi channeling incident is one of the concrete manifestations of the Biden administration's continuous hollowing out or re-blurring of the US "one-China policy", and it is also the most intense performance in recent times; Second, Pelosi's channeling is a key step for the US Biden administration to further promote the setting of alliance issues, in an attempt to further enhance the strategic effect of alliance linkage; Third, the Pelosi channeling incident is an important case of the Taiwan authorities adopting a policy of complete follow-up to the United States and successfully lobbying the United States. This incident will also erode the international consensus on the "one-China principle" and incite US allies to increase their involvement in the situation in the Taiwan Strait. In contrast, we should adopt a differentiated strategy for US allies, demonstrate the mainland's strong determination and will to defend national interests, and resolutely and accurately crack down on "Taiwan independence" forces.
After the lecture session, Mr. Ye had a warm interaction with the audience. The lecture attracted more than 300 people from all walks of life to listen to the lecture and achieved good results. Based on the sharing of academic public welfare in the fields of international relations, international politics and diplomacy, the academic platform of "National Political Scholars" serves the academic research and teaching activities of colleagues in the academic community, and strives to provide a stage for the exchange of academic ideas and popularization of research methods for the majority of young scholars and students in China. In the future, we will continue to launch more high-quality lectures and academic exchange activities, and welcome readers and friends to participate.
Written by | Conference Department
Typography | Shen Qi
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