On 10 July, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida adjusted the top personnel of the Liberal Democratic Party and reorganized the cabinet. Kishida Said on the same day that he would "re-energize his spirits and break through the predicament with a new mood", stressing that "Japan is in the midst of the greatest predicament after the war, and the political vacuum cannot be allowed for a moment." A number of Chinese and Japanese analysts said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 10th that the new Kishida cabinet's platoon deployment reflects the four characteristics of "seeking stability," "attaching importance to experience," "balancing factions and valves," and "drawing a clear line with the 'unification religion.". Among them, the appointment of Koichi Hamada, a member of the Taiwan Strait Council, and the far-right politician Takaichi Sanae deserves vigilance. Relevant experts pointed out that the sooner the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are peacefully reunified, the smaller the security burden on Japan and the more in line with Japan's national and security interests. If Japan regards China as a "major threat" and attempts to intervene in the so-called "Taiwan affair," it will ultimately only put Japan in a hostile relationship with China. Not only is this impossible to achieve sustainable security, but it also poses a serious threat to peace and stability in East Asia.
The new cabinet still has "Abe's shadow"
According to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) reported on the 10th, in the new cabinet of Kishida Fumio, Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroichi Matsuno, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, Minister of Economy and Finance Daishiro Yamaji, and Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Tetsuo Saito remained in office.
Katsunobu Kato, Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare, Yasuichi Hamada, Minister of Defense, Yasunori Nishimura, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Taro Kono, Minister in Charge of Digitalization, and Sanae Takaichi, Minister of Economic Security and Security, all re-entered the cabinet.
Minoru Terada, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, Yasuhiro Hari, Minister of Justice, Keiko Nagaoka, Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (female), Tetsuro Nomura, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Akihiro Nishimura, Minister of the Environment, Kenya Akiba, Minister of Reconstruction, Koichi Tani, Minister of Public Security and Minister in Charge of Disaster Prevention, Naoki Okada, Minister of Local Creation, and Shonobu Kokura, Minister of Minor Development, entered the cabinet for the first time.
"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" commented on the 10th that Kishida's new cabinet is facing important issues such as the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, responding to high prices, stabilizing the supply of energy, and strengthening defense capabilities, and more than half of the cabinet members who remain in office and re-enter the cabinet reflect the characteristics of Kishida Fumio's "stability" and "emphasis on experience" in terms of platoon deployment.
The allocation of posts to various factions within the party and the maintenance of a balance between factions are another major feature of Kishida's new cabinet. Judging from the number of people who have entered the cabinet, there are 4 members each of the first major faction in the party, the "Abe faction" and the third largest faction, the "Aso faction"; There are 3 members each of the "Motegi Faction" and the "Kishida Faction"; There are 2 members of the "Second Order Sect"; "No dispatch valve" 2 people; The ruling coalition is 1 member of the Komeito Party.
The Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK) reported on the 10th that the "second-order faction" has always been considered to keep a distance from Kishida Fumio, and this time the 2 people entered the cabinet can see that Kishida Fumio has put a lot of thought into maintaining the balance of the faction. The use of Taro Kono and Takashi Sanae, who competed with them in the LDP presidential election last year, shows that Kishida Fumio values "intra-party integration."
This is also reflected in the appointment of senior personnel of the Liberal Democratic Party. Vice President Taro Aso (Aso faction), Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi (Motegi faction), and Diet Committee Chairman Takeshi Takagi (Abe faction) were re-elected.
In addition, due to the shooting death of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, trying to distance himself from the religious group "Unification Religion" was also one of the characteristics of Kishida's new cabinet, and people who had been related to the "Unification Religion" were not allowed to enter the cabinet. For example, Abe's confidant and former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagida, who addressed the organization's relevant meetings, was appointed chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party and Government Instead of entering the cabinet. Former Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi admitted to receiving help from the "Unification Church" during the campaign, and for his own health reasons, he was appointed as the Prime Minister's Assistant Minister for National Security of the Liberal Democratic Party. However, Koike Masaharu, a former member of the Japanese House of Representatives, told the Global Times reporter on the 10th that the Liberal Democratic Party is inextricably linked to the "Unification Religion", and in fact, Yamaji Daishiro and Takashi Sanae, who have entered the cabinet, have all had contact with the "Unification Religion".
Liu Jiangyong, a professor in the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University, said in an interview with the Global Times on the 10th that the Kishida reshuffle of the cabinet was carried out in the special context of Abe's shooting. Although the "Abe faction" is the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, although it has not elected a new president, it still has a crucial influence on Japan's political situation and Kishida Fumio's ruling position. It is not difficult to see from the appointment of personnel that Kishida Fumio needs the support of the "Abe faction", "Aso faction" and "Motegi faction".
Liu Jiangyong said that Abe's close confidant Koichi Hagida served as chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party and Government Investigation Committee, and Takashi Sanae returned to the cabinet, indicating that there are shadows of Abe and right-wing forces in both the LDP and the new cabinet, so it is necessary to be vigilant against Japan's constitutional revision, security, and China policies.
Yasuichi Hamada, a member of the Taiwan Council, became Minister of Defense
It is worth noting that at the end of July, Yasuichi Hamada, who had just accompanied Japanese right-wing politician Shigeru Ishiba and others on a visit to Taiwan, would this send the wrong signal to the "Taiwan independence" forces by succeeding Nobuo Kishi as defense minister? Liu Jiangyong told the Global Times reporter that it can be seen from the Japanese statement made by US Congressional Speaker Pelosi when he visited Taiwan that Japan's attitude toward China is extremely unfriendly. Japan's pipeline to Taiwan, which has been controlled by Abe and his family for decades, has now been shot and killed, and Kishi has not been re-elected defense minister because of his relationship with the Unification Church and his poor health. Japan needs to establish a new network and channels for maintaining communication and coordination with the US military on the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and chose Yasuichi Hamada to consider this.
At a press conference on the formal formation of the new cabinet, Kishida said that his cabinet was reorganized as "a cabinet that responded to the policy of resolutely implementing policies in response to 'things', and used both experience and strength." Liu Jiangyong believes that this obviously refers to what Hamada, who once served as defense minister, said, so Kishida's use of Hamada as defense minister can also be regarded as a personnel layout aimed at the so-called "taiwan strait affairs."
At the same time, Liu Jiangyong said that Kishida plans to launch three important documents this year, including the "National Security Guarantee Strategy," and the basic outline has been determined, which involves the situation in the Taiwan Strait, a substantial increase in military spending, and the "counterattack capability" of attacking the enemy's command center. Liu Jiangyong reminded that the personnel layout and policy considerations for the Chinese mainland and the situation in the Taiwan Strait can still be seen in the current Kishida reorganization cabinet, which will inevitably arouse the vigilance and concern of the Chinese side.
However, John Chuan-tiong, executive director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Wuhan University in Taiwan and professor at the Institute of International Studies, believes that at present, Yasuichi Hamada cannot be classified as "right-wing" for the time being, but he is not "pro-China" either. A closer look reveals that in the 2021 LDP presidential election, the main political ideas proposed by Noda Seiko, supported by Yasuichi Hamada, include the surname of husband and wife, the aging of young children, etc., which are not of interest to conservatives.
Lin Quanzhong said that because of this, The appointment of Yasuichi Hamada as defense minister could not be recognized by the conservatives in the LDP. Not long ago, his visit to Taiwan appeased the opposition of the conservative forces in the party to a certain extent, and he reluctantly became the defense minister, and he was a very experienced "veteran."
Lin Quanzhong told the Global Times reporter that Kishida Fumio's policy has been fully reversed to the United States, but it does not mean that he wants to "duel" with China, and while turning to the United States, Japan also hopes to maintain a relatively stable state with China, although it seems that there may be worse at present, but at least do not have fierce turmoil and collisions.
"Yasuichi Hamada served as Defense Minister in the Aso Cabinet in 2009, but Sino-Japanese relations and Sino-US relations at that time were not the same." Lin Quanzhong said, "In this context, whether Yasuichi Hamada can maintain his steady style is still unknown. ”
Oike Also told the Global Times reporter that the change of the Cabinet in Japan this time, the candidates headed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs are mostly moderate politicians or have caused dissatisfaction, and the entry of Kono Taro, who is accused of his relatives having relations with China, has also caused the Right faction in Japan to hold dissatisfied opinions.
The sooner the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are peacefully reunified, the smaller Japan's security burden will be
The appointment of Takashi Sanae as Minister of Economic Security is also worth vigilance. Liu Jiangyong believes that Takaichi Sanae is a "hardcore crony" of Shinzo Abe, and this appointment is to "send Akibo" to the "Abe faction" and the right-wing conservative forces in Japan. At the same time, it is conceivable that Takashi will adopt a more proactive and tough policy toward China in the future in the areas under which Takashi is in charge of taking a more proactive and hard-line policy toward China in the economic and industrial fields.
Lin Quanzhong told the Global Times reporter that the appointment of Takashi Sanae was clearly intended to confront China in the economic aspect. Takashi Sanae is equivalent to "Abe's children", and after she comes to power, she should promote the implementation of safety issues in the industrial chain and strengthen cooperation with Taiwan in semiconductor chips and other fields.
In fact, the sooner the two sides of the strait are peacefully reunified, the smaller the security burden on Japan and the more favorable it will be to the development of China and Japan in all aspects, which conforms to Japan's national interests and Japan's security interests. Because then Sino-US relations will also remove an obstacle. Liu Jiangyong said, "On the contrary, if the 'Taiwan independence' forces continue to take risks and eventually involve the United States and Japan in the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, in the end Japan is doomed to pay unimaginable security costs and costs." If Japan regards China as a 'major threat' and attempts to intervene in the so-called 'Taiwan affair,' it can only ultimately put Japan in a hostile relationship with China. Not only is this impossible to achieve sustainable security, but it also poses a serious threat to peace and stability in East Asia. ”