#Russia-Ukraine situation##North Korean army ##拜登 #
Author: Zhukov
In recent times, a very heavy event has emerged in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict - the Russian media announced that the DPRK army will send 100,000 troops to the two republics of eastern Ukraine in the name of volunteers to support the Russian army in fighting the Ukrainian army.
So how do we interpret this matter?
First, why did the North Korean army want to send 100,000 troops to support the Russian army?
1. Pelosi came to South Korea, which in north Korea's view was a violation of north Korean interests. In order to show Pelosi the strength of North Korea, the North Korean army sent 100,000 troops to Ukraine.
2. Russia does need foreign reinforcements, and at present Russia has brought all 13 armies of the domestic army to the front line to participate in the war. There were no reservists mobilized in Russia, but many older adults were recruited to join the army on the front lines. Since the majority of Russia's population lives in the large cities of the European part of Russia, it is reluctant to go to the front. Nor can Russia force people living in big cities to become soldiers. Therefore, Russia recruited new recruits from the Far East. Unfortunately, the township and rural recruits recruited from the Far East are a drop in the bucket to solve the problem of Russia's shortage of soldiers. But Russia avoids overstimulating European countries and is reluctant to activate the domestic war machine and mobilize reserve forces. In a very awkward situation, Russia pulled allied forces into the battlefield, including the North Korean army. North Korea's sending troops as an ally of Russia is due both to the North Korean military's own ideas and to Russia's needs.
3. North Korea wants to improve its actual combat capabilities, and the weapons and equipment of the North Korean military since the current leader of north Korea came to power in 2011 have been continuously improved. The NORTH Korean army is equipped with new tanks, and various ballistic missiles (including ultra-high-speed missiles, intercontinental missiles) and cruise missiles have been put into service. The North Korean leader also personally directed the launch of the North Korean army's Hwasong 17 intercontinental missile. As the military strength of the DPRK army, especially the weapons and equipment and combat system, became more and more modern, the DPRK leaders came up with the idea of letting the military participate in actual combat training abroad. That's why North Korea sent 100,000 troops to support the Russians.
4. Both Korea and Russia have strong anti-fascist ideas, and Pelosi went to Japan on the last stop of her trip to Asia. In Japan, Pelosi is bound to discuss the Korean Peninsula with the Japanese authorities. The North Korean side is most worried about Japan's comeback with the support of the United States and renew its aggression against the Korean Peninsula. Coupled with japan's disapproval of the war crimes of aggression against Asia during World War II, North Korea considers Japan to be a "fascist" country. Ukraine's actions have also led North Korea to believe that Ukraine is a "fascist country." Since the Russian army is fighting against the fascist Ukrainian authorities, the DPRK army, out of anti-fascist considerations, naturally wants to send troops to support Russia in fighting the Ukrainian army.
Second, why does the United States dare not protest or even expand the war? Logically, North Korea is one of the opponents of the United States, and the North Korean army helps the Russian army to fight the Ukrainian army, and the United States will definitely send troops to intervene. But to this day, the United States has not intervened, and Biden has not even heard of protest, so why doesn't Biden dare to expand the war? There are 3 main reasons.
1. The strength of the US military has indeed declined, and although the current US military strength is very strong, its military production capacity has regressed a lot. The United States now has only one shipyard that can build an aircraft carrier, and it takes 6 years to build an aircraft carrier. Without the support of aircraft carriers, the development of the U.S. Navy has fallen into a bottleneck, not to mention launching a large-scale war abroad. The production capacity of artillery shells in the United States is declining, and the Russian army has to shoot 60,000 shells a day, while the United States can only produce 80,000 to 100,000 shells in a year due to the impact of the new crown epidemic. It is simply unable to meet the needs of the US military in fighting the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Moreover, the mobilization ability of the U.S. military is no longer good. The security wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have consumed so much U.S. military power that the U.S. military can only incorporate mercenaries into the U.S. military and put them on the battlefield. For example, the famous "Blackwater Company". These mercenaries are okay with guerrillas, but it's much worse to fight against military powers like North Korea and Russia.
Biden is self-aware of the military power of the United States, and the United States really does not dare to launch a foreign war except to scare others with aircraft carriers to flaunt its might. Even if north Korean troops launch missiles, the United States has no choice but to use aircraft carriers to intimidate and protest.
2. The American people are reluctant to serve as soldiers, and during World War II, the American people enthusiastically joined the army to eliminate fascism in World War II. The total strength of the U.S. army swelled to 12 million. But by the time of the Korean War and the Vietnam War, the enthusiasm of ordinary Americans to join the military had declined somewhat. However, throughout the Cold War period, because the United States was the leader of the Western world, although the enthusiasm of the American people to join the military declined, it was still reasonable for politicians.
After the end of the Cold War, the United States fought a Gulf War and a Kosovo War and won a complete victory, and the enthusiasm of the American people to join the army was ignited again. But with the defeat of the U.S. military in Iraq and Afghanistan, coupled with the impact of the new crown pneumonia, the enthusiasm of the American people to join the military reached the lowest point after World War II. The American people believe that the US military can't even fight the Afghan guerrillas, how can it fight the Russian army? The U.S. conscription mission in 2022 is 60,000 people, but until now, most of 2022 has passed, and the U.S. military has not even achieved 30,000 conscription.
Third, there is no money. The United States spent trillions of dollars fighting Afghanistan and Iraq, did not pay for advanced weapons, and eliminated 8 of the 9 ultra-high-speed missile programs. The conventional weapons of the US military are still the weapons left over from the late Cold War. The U.S. military doesn't even have the money to install an anti-missile system on Guam.
The above three reasons make it impossible for the US military to directly participate in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The United States provides weapons to Ukraine, on the one hand, to maintain the traditional interests of the United States in Europe, on the other hand, the purpose is also very direct - Uncle Sam has no money, and sells weapons to Ukraine to earn more practical benefits.
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