【Text/ Observer Network Columnist Chenfeng】
The epic 2022 Taiwan Strait Joint Exercise is China's tough response to Pelosi's blatant provocations and an effective demonstration of its determination to reunify, which will surely "linger for three days" in cross-strait relations, Sino-US relations, and the balance of military forces, and also ease the depression and anger of the Chinese people in public opinion. China's latecomer strikes, and does what it says - latecomers but a customized person; Not only is it always consistent in "saying", but also in "doing" it will not follow other people's plans, "You want yours, I will do mine", if you want to hurt, you must make you feel deep pain, do not do useless work.
The 2022 joint exercise is epoch-making in many ways
Pelosi threatened to visit Taiwan in April, a last-minute "strategic coronavirus." At the end of July, the Financial Times broke the news that Pelosi planned to "visit" Taiwan during a visit to the Asia-Pacific country in August, which once again caused Repeated Stern Warnings from China. On the night of August 2, Pelosi defied the wind and began to visit, leaving on August 3.
The PLA's epic joint exercises began on August 4, and in fact part of the military operation began on August 3. This is unusually rapid action.
The details of the troops participating in the exercise, the actual deployment and the operation are all confidential now, and it is not known whether it will be announced in the future, but this is undoubtedly at least a large-scale operation at the theater level, and it is also the biggest operation after the military reform. The operation of the Joint Staff And the Eastern Theater in the joint large-scale exercise has proved the depth, breadth and effectiveness of the military reform.
The PLA could not have started studying the exercise plan knowing that Pelosi was going to stand up to the wind, or even had plans long before Pelosi threatened in April. The Eastern Theater and the Joint Staff Headquarters are certain that the Taiwan Strait has various plans, but it may now be just one of the plans that have been taken out and implemented as an exercise plan after revision.
On the other hand, planning alone is not enough, and exercises require real rather than virtual supplies of weapons and ammunition. The fact that the exercise can be pulled quickly shows that the PLA's combat readiness level has reached a very high level, and it is really "coming when called upon, being able to fight when it comes, and winning war when it is coming." Moreover, the PLA's combat readiness is suitable for various pre-planning requirements, so that it can complete preparations and put into action in the shortest possible time. This is the legendary "cold start".
The political significance of this joint exercise is self-evident, that is, to form the greatest deterrent to the United States, Taiwan, and other hostile forces. Therefore, it is not only necessary to have a huge momentum, but also to have a clear and reliable practical significance.
The joint exercise is divided into six directions. Straight to the Dragon Gate in the direction of Taipei; The Yilan direction responded from the side and blocked the U.S.-Japanese forces in the direction of the Ryukyu Islands; The Pacific Ocean points directly to the supposedly safe east coast of Taiwan Island, including the Jiashan base, the Soviet-Australian military port, and the Zhihang base, and blocks the U.S. naval and air forces in the western Pacific; The direction of the Bashi Strait not only responds to the direction of Kaohsiung, but also is a key theater of operations for intercepting the U.S. Air Force on Guam; The kaohsiung direction not only threatens Kaohsiung, but also squeezes Penghu from the side, but also the support in the direction of the Bashi Strait, no wonder it has the largest exercise area, which is also the key area where PLA combat aircraft have burst into Taiwan's "air defense identification zone" for some time in the past; The direction of the strait directly crosses the strait, creating the greatest and most direct pressure on the hinterland of Taiwan Island from Hsinchu to Taichung.
Such a situation can directly land on Taiwan Island, and retreat can be blockaded by sea and air. In wartime, no matter whether it advances or retreats, the purpose of military unification can be realized. On this basis, various schemes can also evolve. For example, weaken the direction of the Strait, strengthen the direction of Yilan, the Pacific Ocean and the Bashi Strait, and the direction of Taipei will mainly assist the direction of Yilan; Increase the direction of Penghu, while the sea and air blockade, first seize Penghu and force Taiwan; Or strengthen the direction of the Strait and Kaohsiung, preemptively land on the island, make a quick decision, and support the direction of Yilan, the Pacific Ocean, and the Bashi Strait with the reinforcement air force that quickly landed on the island, and deal with the intervention of the late US naval and air forces.
Peaceful reunification is always the first choice, and armed reunification is always the option. Armed reunification has not only the option of quick war and quick decision, but also the option of protracted war. All options are valid only if they become realistic options, not the last resort options. The "cold start" capability is key to quick decisions, and is just as important for protracted battles, although the impact on the final outcome is not as direct as that of quick decisions. Protracted war is not the same as procrastination war, and it is still necessary to achieve the greatest results in the first time and create the greatest favorable conditions for subsequent battles.
The swiftness, actual combat, and completeness of the joint exercises are bound to form a great deterrent to the United States and Taiwan and other hostile forces.
Of course, some people will question whether Taiwan's public sentiment does not seem to have been deterred as it should be, or whether the horse is running and dancing. What the PLA joint exercise should deter has never been the People of Taiwan, but the "Taiwan independence" forces and the forces outside the island that support "Taiwan independence." Conversely, if everyone is insensitive, that's a good thing. To turn such an exercise close to actual combat into actual combat, it is only necessary to break through a layer of paper.
With this time, the PLA's face-riding exercises will become the new normal. In the future, there will be crimes against the wind, and the PLA will once again ride a face exercise, but which exercise will be seamlessly transferred to actual combat is decided by China. Whether to wipe the edge or cross the line is not decided by the players, but by the referee, and China is the referee on the issue of whether the "Taiwan independence" and the forces supporting "Taiwan independence" outside the island cross the red line. On that day, the more lax the Taiwan army's preparations, the smoother the great cause of armed reunification.
Loose on the outside and tight on the inside is easier said than done. The rapid and effective transition from a state of lack of preparation to a state of wartime can only be achieved by strong political leadership, a well-trained army and a united population, not only with sufficient psychological and material preparation, but also with sufficient strategic depth to have the necessary buffer time and space. Taiwan simply can't do it.
At a more specific technical level, the joint exercise not only demonstrated various advanced weapons and equipment and tactics, but also demonstrated the strong strength of China's military industry.
Aircraft carriers pin their hopes on generations of Chinese. During the joint exercise, the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" were said to have left their home ports respectively, and their "destination is unknown.", and it is believed that they are not going to travel to the summer at public expense.
The military role of Chinese aircraft carriers is a matter of constant debate. There are constantly saying that China's aircraft carriers are used to liberate Taiwan, but the J-20, H-6N, and 052D have been unveiled, and the aircraft carriers are "not clear" in such an important joint exercise, which can only show that the narrow Taiwan Strait operations are not within the pattern of China's aircraft carriers at all, which is too big to be used. As for the idea that China's aircraft carrier is only used to restrain small and medium-sized "troublemakers" and cannot directly confront the US aircraft carrier, that is even more wrong.
The aircraft carrier is used as a super coast guard ship, which is misplaced. The heavy weapon of the country is to assume the heavy responsibility of the country. If the US aircraft carrier is a great threat to the armed forces, if the Chinese aircraft carrier cannot play the role of the mainstay in the great cause of the armed reunification, how can it be worthy of the high expectations of the Chinese people? But just as China does not take the initiative of others, China's aircraft carriers may not directly fight with U.S. aircraft carriers in the Form of the Battle of the Coral Sea or Midway, as long as they can defeat their opponents, with the support of 055s, submarines, shore-based aircraft, and anti-ship ballistic missiles.
The Reagan visits Pelosi to the movements of the People's Liberation Army during the Joint Exercise, Photo: Strategic Situational Awareness in the South China Sea
The Reagan moved closer to Japan during the joint exercises, and later showed signs of retreating, but it was still hesitant to move. Nuclear-powered aircraft carriers move 1,000 kilometers a day and night without pressure. Whenever needed, the Reagan Battle Group had time to approach the Taiwan Strait throughout the joint exercise, but it did not. Of course, there are political considerations here, but it is difficult to say that the movements of the "Liaoning" battle group from Qingdao and the "Shandong" battle group from Sanya, Hainan Province, have no impact, especially the "Reagan" suddenly moved sharply to the east on August 3, away from the direction of the Taiwan Strait.
"Global Network" rarely revealed on August 4 that the exercise also arranged nuclear submarines to cooperate with the operation. If China's military strength still has shortcomings, the short board of aircraft carriers is being made up, and the short board of nuclear submarines is also being made up, but the visibility is much lower. Nuclear submarines are divided into strategic missile nuclear submarines and attack nuclear submarines, and the report did not say which one, or both were dispatched, and it is estimated that the latter is the latter, because strategic missile nuclear submarines are on duty for combat readiness all year round.
There are three roles for attacking nuclear submarines: anti-aircraft carrier, anti-submarine, and land attack. In the joint exercise, these three roles can be used. Nuclear submarines are one pole of the anti-aircraft carrier multi-body, needless to say; Anti-ships and merchant ships are even more grassy and rabbits, incidentally.
During the joint exercise, the Greatest attention was paid to the Reagan, and the Tripoli and the United States were also attentive, but it was almost certain that The American submarines were also quietly cruising in the western Pacific. During the 1996 exercises, Chinese nuclear submarines were also dispatched, but the Americans ridiculed that the noise was so loud that it could be heard across the Pacific Ocean. This is, of course, an exaggeration, but it also reflects China's embarrassment when it comes to "solving the problem first".
Over the years, China's nuclear submarine technology has grown quietly but rapidly, but the true level is secret. If it doesn't ring, it's already a blockbuster, and now is the time to be amazing. China will not be unprepared to let the wind nuclear submarines also go out. If nothing else, under the dark and silent western Pacific Ocean, Chinese nuclear submarines are also fighting with American nuclear submarines.
In terms of ground attacks, targets on Taiwan Island do not need to work on nuclear submarines, but Japan's US military bases are different. Offense is always the best defense, and in the western Pacific, it is time for a new era of "thousands of miles into dabie mountain".
In the field of electromagnetism and space, various analogies are also indispensable.
The AIR forces of the People's Liberation Army, with the support of early warning aircraft, have launched a large-scale campaign, and all kinds of air-condition radars and data links have opened fire, not only to be clear-sighted and clear-sighted, but also to keep secrets, true and false, and concealed and false. This is true even in wartime, not undisguised under any circumstances, which is a direct invitation to electromagnetic and spatial countermeasures of the enemy. This is the most thorough peacetime and wartime combination.
But the necessary "truth" will not only make the opponent touch it, but also part of the deterrence. Deterrence is to make the opponent confirm that you have at least so much ability, and there may be some more powerful ones that are not revealed.
In the joint exercise, the far-range fire was also on the field. However, this is not the 300 mm long-range fire that used to be said in the past, but the newer 370 mm long-range box fire. On the basis of 300 mm long-range fire, it increases the projectile body, increases the range, improves the firing speed and guidance accuracy, and is modular. It is easy to reload quickly, and it is also convenient for multi-caliber and multi-ammunition mixing.
In the joint large-scale exercise, the Xinyuan box fire showed the ability to select positions on demand and fight in place, and the actual combat significance was extremely great. What is less mentioned is that the Xinyuan box fire was first displayed at the 2019 National Day military parade, when it was a surprise even in the circles that have been paying attention to China's armament development for many years, because no one expected to launch a newer generation of 370 mm long box fire so soon after the successful 300 mm long fire.
In the commentary of the National Day military parade, it has been said that the display equipment has been put into service, but no one can say whether it is still only the pilot equipment stage. The more advanced the equipment, the longer it takes for the batch size to be formed, the run-in of the troops, and the combat effectiveness to meet the standards. The famous French "Caesar" 155 mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer was put into production in 2008, and the second generation was launched in 2022, or 6x6, improving fire control and increasing armor, but it took 4 years to develop, and then it was possible to talk about mass production, and it took longer to install and form combat effectiveness. The power and complexity of the Xinyuan Box Fire are much higher, but in less than 3 years, it has quietly entered a large number of service and entered the actual combat state. This is not only the speed and efficiency of China's military industry, but also the speed and efficiency of the People's Liberation Army. The Xinyuan box fire is just a small microcosm.
There are also various advanced equipment, such as the oil-20, 052D, J-20 and so on. "Old-fashioned equipment" such as the DF-15B, a veteran of the 1996 exercise, is still playing an important role.
According to U.S. and Japanese media reports on August 5, 11 DF-15B missiles were launched during the exercise, with landing points encircling the north and south ends of Taiwan Island and the western Pacific Ocean, and the launch positions were from Zhejiang, Fujian to Jiangxi, and some missile paths passed over the southern suburbs of Taipei. Interestingly, Taiwan did not issue an air defense siren, but only lightly explained it when it was verified by the media afterwards.
The Taiwan side's argument is that the part of the missile passing through The island is still outside the atmosphere, and there is no security hazard to the area under the path, so no air defense alarm has been issued. Taiwan's media and politicians have slammed it as a very unfair measure to the people of Taiwan, who have the right to know.
The actual situation may be difficult to say. There are four possibilities:
1. Because the Taiwan military has insufficient detection capabilities, or the DF-15B has a certain stealth capability, it has not seen the missiles coming at all, and there is no way to issue an alarm
2. The Taiwan military judged that the missile would not really hit the target on the island, and simply did not turn on the radar to avoid radar performance and the Reaction of the Taiwan military being observed by the PLA under close surveillance, and naturally there was no way to issue an alarm
3. The Taiwan military radar saw that it would not cause harm according to the ballistic judgment, and the ballistic trajectory exceeded the range of the "Patriot" missile, and decided not to warn
4. The Taiwan military radar saw that it would not cause damage according to the ballistic trajectory, and was afraid that the interception would cause an escalation of the conflict, and decided not to warn
The DF-15B is an improved version of the DF-15 series. China has studied stealth deeply, and it is not surprising that it has installed certain anti-radar methods. However, in general, ballistic missile launch and early warning is a mature technology, and the possibility that the Taiwan military cannot detect the DF-15B at all is not very large.
The Taiwan military simply inflated itself, betting that a PLA missile would fly over Taiwan Island at most and would not really hit the target on the island, which was not an unreasonable prejudgment. But this is really a big gamble, because the PLA exercise is already highly close to actual combat, and it is a matter of minutes to seamlessly transfer to actual combat, so the Taiwan military will be caught off guard. But it is also reasonable to avoid radar and response plans being thoroughly explored by the PLA.
The "patriot" is the only means of anti-missile warfare used by the Taiwan military, and its range and altitude are limited, and it belongs to the point target anti-missile. The "patriot" positions of the Taiwan army are all under the control of the People's Liberation Army, and it is not difficult to pass these preset anti-missile positions when there is no specific target to be hit. Since the target is harmless and cannot be intercepted, the Taiwan military simply pretends to be stupid, and this possibility is not small.
Seeing that it is possible to intercept, but it is also possible to avoid interception for fear of escalating conflicts. But the political significance of crossing Taiwan Island is too great, if the missile crosses without interception, will the high-altitude high-speed drone crossing intercept it? What about fighter jets? How can the Taiwan authorities give the people any sense of security?
In any case, the Dongfeng-15B flew over Taiwan Island, the Taiwan military did not intercept, did not issue an alarm, this will not escape the public's further questioning, then see what explanation the Taiwan side has.
On the whole, the Taiwan military's response to the joint exercise was very low-key. In the early stages of the joint exercise, Taiwan's Air Force only dispatched the Mirage 2000 and F-5E/F interceptions. The Mirage 2000 was once the main air defense force of the Taiwan Air Force, but after the F-16 was upgraded, it has de facto withdrawn from the front line. The F-5E/F is an old-fashioned thing, usually only used as a new pilot training and old pilot training to save more valuable F-16 flight hours. The dispatch of the Mirage 2000 and F-5E/F interceptions was only symbolic, but avoided exposing the radar and datalink performance of the F-16.
Switching to the F-16 in the later period (including the A/B before the upgrade and the V-type after the upgrade) is not necessarily a reaction upgrade, or it may be that the old Mirage 2000 and F-5E/F cannot withstand such a rate of dispatch, and it is time to "strike" if they insist on going out.
The "Success" class, "Knox" class frigates and "Kidd" class destroyers dispatched by the Taiwan Navy are also old things, and their combat effectiveness is incomparable with the PLA's 054A, 052D, and 055. It is said that in the close escort, the distance between the two sides is only 1000 meters, and even reaches 500 meters, which is the distance between the face and the face in the vast sea. Who's putting on whose face is that?
In this picture, which must be the hottest this year, the 052D-class "Nanjing" ship (hull number 155) is very close to the Taiwanese "Lanyang", and the peaceful power plant in Hualien on the coast is clearly visible
According to satellite images, the Nanjing was once only 11.78 kilometers from hualien's peaceful power plant and less than 10 kilometers from the nearest coastline
According to satellite pictures, the "Nanjing" ship is less than 10 kilometers away from the nearest coastline near Hualien, and the Taiwan military's "Lanyang" can only be actively squeezed by the "Nanjing" ship on the inside to form such a close contact. Interestingly, the Taiwan media boasted that the mouth cover of the ship's "Xiongfeng" anti-ship missile was opened to scare the People's Liberation Army. Not to mention that the People's Liberation Army has much more powerful anti-ship missiles, at such a close distance, anti-ship missiles have not yet unlocked the insurance has flown over the target distance, there is no way to fight, or the ship gun works. However, the Taiwan military's old Mk 42 127 mm naval gun has to fight against the PLA's new H/PJ38 130 mm naval gun, which is not a drama at all.
The "Nanjing" warship approached such a distance, not to fight the "Lanyang" ship, or even to fight the peace power plant. The H/PJ38 has a range of 30 km, and there is no need to approach such a distance. Such a close-up focus is to highlight the illegality of Taiwan's 12-nautical-mile line, which has a much greater political significance than a military significance.
To a large extent, the PLA's aircraft, warships, and even the exercise area are so close to Taiwan Island, which is also of greater political significance than military significance. Purely from the perspective of weapon range, pure gravity bombs without gliding are no longer used, guided bombs with gliding can cover island targets on the west side of the "middle line of the strait", and the new far-range box fire can cover island targets on the mainland.
Militarily, it is an interesting question whether it is necessary to seize the outlying islands and establish a fire base on the outlying islands closer to Taiwan Island. The long-range box fire has the ability to shoot directly at the target on the island from the mainland, and the long-range fire can also be used after using extended range ammunition. But at closer ranges, larger quantities of ammunition can be poured with weapons with a closer range and lower cost. In large-scale operations, precision guidance is a flower, ammunition tonnage is brocade, and flowers can be added to the icing on the cake, but flowers cannot replace the brocade, and the role of ammunition tonnage cannot be replaced.
However, it takes time not only to capture the outlying islands, but also to establish a fire base, and it also takes time to transfer ammunition to the outlying islands. This is only necessary in the case of a protracted war. Ballistic missiles + cruise missiles vs guided bombs are the same problem.
During the joint exercise, the US fleet and aircraft hid far away; Japan and Australia, which had jumped very high in the past, also quietly fell silent; NATO was even more like no one else, dealing a heavy blow to the "Taiwan independence" forces that only the United States and the West supported and dared to jump up and down.
To some extent, the West's perception of China's military growth is contradictory. On the one hand, we see the leap forward in specific aspects, and on the other hand, we despise it in general. During the PLA exercise in 1996, the West was amazed at the huge momentum on the one hand, and laughed at the backwardness of technology and equipment on the other hand. William Perry, then U.S. Defense Secretary, shouted: "Beijing should know that the most powerful military power in the western Pacific is the United States." "In a way, the overall Western impression of the PLA was locked in at that time.
But the current joint exercises have subverted the impression of the West, at least the Western military and political circles have realized the need to keep up with the times.
Despite the War in Ukraine and the Russian issue, only China can challenge US hegemony, so all US strategy documents and dialogues must be called China. It is certain that the United States will make trouble, fail, make trouble again, fail again, and then "perish" in the Taiwan Strait. Here is not the demise of the United States, but the demise of American hegemony.
The United States also needs to pull its allies together to counter China, but the situation of the allies is different.
NATO allies are forced to take sides, and they have no clear conflict of interest with China. On the issue of hegemony, old Europe has long been playing soy sauce, and it is not necessary to regain hegemony, and helping the United States to maintain hegemony is a matter of cost performance. The history of old Europe was full of bloodshed and strife, and he knew the reason for not taking the initiative to jump between the hammer and the anvil, not only did he not squeak on Pelosi's visit, but he also basically remained silent about the joint exercise of the People's Liberation Army.
Japan "left Asia and entered the United States" after "leaving Asia and entering Europe", but China's rise may break the so-called "Pax Americana" (Pax Americana), which will subvert Japan's future trajectory. After Japan's "head goose" status is not guaranteed, even the triangular "goose array" may become the Eiffel Tower. China is riding the spire, and Japan is vying with other Asia-Pacific countries for a place on the base of the tower. Japan is not willing to accept it, drags the United States back to the Asia-Pacific region, and uses the Taiwan issue to lock the door to China's rise, becoming Japan's last chance to maintain its wild goose array and leading position.
However, whether Japan continues to "break away from Asia and enter the United States" depends on the balance of forces between China and the United States, especially on China's strength and determination relative to the United States. Will the PLA joint exercise shake Japan's resolve? It's hard to say, but it certainly shook Japan. The purpose of "breaking away from Asia and entering the United States" is to borrow the pressure of the United States, not to take the initiative to jump between the hammer and the anvil, and it is not the purpose of being a pioneer, and the days when the "Izumo" could unscrupulously shell the visible Chinese soldiers and civilians in the Huangpu River have long passed.
The situation in Australia is somewhat similar. Australia prides itself on being the "white sheriff in the yellow world", but after the rise of China, the traditional pattern was broken, and in Indonesia and the South Pacific, China's influence was growing, although China had no intention of competing with Australia for spheres of influence, and China's pattern was not so small.
Australia's economic and technological development is also on the bottleneck. On the one hand, there are also some second world dividends to eat; On the other hand, in the future science and technology such as chips, artificial intelligence, robots, biochemistry, and new energy, it basically has become a "pseudo-developed country" that relies on resources and agricultural exports. Relying solely on China's pull is not enough, and Australia needs to regroup in order to return to the road of development. The Labor Party is not so extreme, but not to mention that Australia does not have enough skills to take the initiative to jump into the hammer and anvil, do not take the initiative to provoke China, and force the People's Liberation Army to one day go to the South Pacific to carry out such face-riding exercises.
Over the years, the Taiwan authorities have continuously promoted "de-Sinicization" and hollowed out the essence of the "Republic of China." However, in the final analysis, the Taiwan issue is no longer a Taiwan issue, but a Sino-US issue. Both China and the United States are superpowers that cannot be moved. The Taiwan issue is the key to ultimately repairing relations between China and the United States, but Taiwan has no say in such a key issue, only passive acceptance. This is the greatest sadness, as highlighted by Pelosi's visit and the ensuing joint exercises.
Man has long legs, and land is shared by the nation. If the descendants of Xiao want to leave, they will go. But to take the ancestral property away, you have to ask the family if it agrees. Of course disagree!
Without Taiwan's small moves, the United States may not be able to provoke wantonly; Without the support of the United States, Taiwan would not even dare to make small moves. China's rise is a long-term process, fundamental and irreversible changes in the balance of power between China and the United States are long-term processes, and the United States and Taiwan will continue to collude and continue to do things. After the PLA crossed the "middle line of the strait" and the 12-nautical-mile line, joint exercises that were getting closer and closer to actual combat became the new normal. The United States and Taiwan wanted to cut sausages, and the People's Liberation Army directly patted the table.
The 2022 joint exercise is epic, but the epic continues to be composed, and the next chapter is that the reunification of the motherland has been realized. The reason why the People's Liberation Army is called the People's Liberation Army is to liberate all of China. Taiwan is an integral part of all of China.
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