Lunan Peak
The death of the Taliban and Lavahiri
On August 1, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri had been killed by a drone in Kabul, Afghanistan. On August 4, Abdul Basit, a researcher at the Rajalemnan Institute of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said in an article on Al Jazeera that the incident could mark the beginning of the group's doomsday and plunge its hosts in Afghanistan into unprecedented isolation.
Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri
Basitt believes that Zawahiri was the main mastermind of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and for the United States, eliminating him was a major gain. Since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, it has been in need of major victories in global counterterrorism operations. At the same time, the incident was undoubtedly a huge setback for Al Qaeda, which had long been plagued by financial problems, limited command and control, infighting and a lack of geographical refuge.
However, the Taliban are likely to be most affected by the assassination, which will force Taliban leaders to reassess their ties to the United States and al-Qaida, as well as its desire for international recognition.
Basit described the Taliban's dilemma. In 2011, after al-Qaida founder Osama bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan, Zawahiri succeeded him as the group's leader. He is an charismatic but competent leader who led al-Qaida during turbulent times and struggled to maintain its reputation, although multiple U.S. drone strikes wiped out its main leaders during this period, and its branch in Iraq founded ISIS on its own in 2014.
Before the assassination, al-Qaida was experiencing a slow and steady recovery, thanks in large part to the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan. The organization celebrates the Taliban's victory as if it were its own. Since the Taliban took over power, Zawahiri has released propaganda videos more frequently, suggesting that he is increasingly confident. Even the safe house where Zawahiri was killed is located in an upscale neighborhood in Kabul, just 1.5 km from the presidential palace.
The assassination left the Taliban in a bind on both fronts.
On the one hand, it could cause the Taliban to lose what little trust Washington has left and dash its chances of gaining international recognition in the short term. It was discovered that the al-Qaida leader who assisted in organizing the 9/11 attacks was allowed to live in Kabul.
On the other hand, the assassination is likely to leave the Taliban's relationship with Al Qaeda severely damaged and irreparable. Before Zawahiri was killed, the relationship between the two groups was based on trust. After 9/11, for example, Taliban founder Mullah Omar preferred to face an American invasion and lose power than hand over bin Laden to the United States.
After Zawahiri was killed, al-Qaida undoubtedly had difficulty in continuing to trust the Taliban. Some members saw the assassination as a sign of a shift in the Taliban coalition, while others saw it as the result of the group's growing incompetence. Either way, Taliban leaders may have a hard time explaining what happened to their al-Qaeda allies and why it happened.
In addition to undermining its ties with the United States and al-Qaida, the assassination of Zawahiri would also undermine the Taliban from within. The assassination will exacerbate the confrontation between two forces within the Taliban, pragmatists who want the Taliban to distance themselves from al-Qaida and other hard-line groups such as the Haqqani Network, and utopians who insist on sheltering and supporting terrorist groups.
Meanwhile, Basitt believes the assassination could mark the end of al-Qaida. He wrote that the assassination of Zawahiri after bin Laden's death was the second biggest blow to al-Qaida, which may not be able to recover from it.
Currently, the two most likely candidates for al-Qaida's next leadership are Zawahiri's Egyptian deputy Saif al-Adel and his Moroccan-born son-in-law and head of media operations, Abd al-Rehman al-Maghribi. Both currently reside in Iran, however, after Israeli forces killed al-Qaida number two Abu Muhammad al-Masri in Tehran in November 2020, it is unlikely that they will gain enough security in Iran to take over the top post.
However, after Zawahiri's assassination in Kabul — and the consequent loss of trust between the Taliban and Al-Qaida — they may feel insecure to lead the organization in Afghanistan.
Lacking a geographical refuge in the vast Middle East, the group's leadership may have to move to some safer branch elsewhere in the world. Currently, al-Shabaab, led by Ahmed Diriye, is the world's most powerful and astute branch of al-Qaida. But if a non-Arab, Mr. Diriyer takes on a leadership role in the group, it could anger members in Syria, Yemen, Pakistan and other countries and lead to the disintegration of the group. As a result, despite Zawahiri's lackluster personality, al-Qaida may have a hard time finding his successor.
In addition, al-Qaida has lost not only its leaders but also its refuge in Taliban-led Afghanistan, while also facing a resurgence of ISIS in Africa, which threatens its future.
After Zawahiri's death, all indications were that the terrorist organization he had led for a decade was on the verge of extinction. It could also deal a major blow to the Taliban, forcing the group to reconsider its alliance with hardliners as it seeks international recognition.
Coupled with the full-blown decline of ISIS and the killing of its leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Qurayshi in Syria in February, these are clear signs that the heyday of transnational terrorist networks is a thing of the past. However, the threat of transnational terrorism is far from over, and the international community still needs to remain vigilant, monitored and actively intervened in order to eliminate it in anarchic areas, if necessary.
Responding to the global food crisis
Today's world is facing the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, with interconnected shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and conflict putting global food, agriculture, finance, energy systems and markets in turmoil.
On August 3, Abdulla Shahid, President of the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly, and Gabriel Ferrero de Loma-Osorio, Chairman of the United Nations Committee on World Food Security, shouted in an article published on Al Jazeera that millions of lives were at stake and time was running out for the world's most vulnerable people.
Two U.N. officials wrote that the ongoing war in Ukraine has exacerbated an already precarious situation of poverty, hunger and malnutrition. In addition to the tragic humanitarian toll, the war has spread human suffering to all corners of the world through the widespread destruction of the cultivation, harvesting, transport and export of staple agricultural products in the Black Sea region. The war has also disrupted the price and access to inputs of resources such as fuel and fertilizers. In this context, the United Nations welcomes the food trade agreement that provides a lifeline for millions of people and strongly urges all parties to implement the agreement.
On August 6, 2022, local time, in Istanbul, Turkey, the Maltese-flagged "Rojen" ship departed from Ukraine with 13,000 tons of corn and arrived at the entrance of the Bosphorus Black Sea.
Even before the war, global hunger and malnutrition were on the rise, and according to the latest State of food security and nutrition reports released by five UN agencies – FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO – 823 million people will be hungry in 2021, an unacceptable figure. The report also notes that by 2022, another 50 million people around the world will be severely starved. As food prices continue to rise, another 19 million people worldwide are expected to face chronic malnutrition by 2023.
These are not just statistics, but real people around the world, from Cairo to Caracas, from Dhaka to Donetsk, who go to bed hungry.
While everyone has been squeezed by rising food prices, the poor have been hit the hardest, especially in developing countries, where food accounts for half of the general household budget. They find it increasingly difficult to afford the food they need to support their families and are forced to reduce their food intake, sell their means of production or drop their children out of school.
As a result, we see years of hunger and poverty reduction burned to the ground, efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 undermined, and inequalities are exacerbated. The World Bank warned that the war in Ukraine could plunge as many as 95 million people into extreme poverty, making 2022 the second worst year in history for poverty reduction, after 2020.
Growing export bans and trade restrictions on wheat and other commodities have exacerbated the crisis. These actions are counterproductive and must be corrected.
However, there have been some welcome developments, such as the recent action by representatives of more than 100 World Trade Organization members to increase trade in food and agricultural products and to reaffirm the importance of avoiding export restrictions. In addition, the Group of Seven, which includes major food exporters such as Canada, the European Union and the United States, has pledged to avoid imposing export bans and other trade restrictions.
Given the intensification of drivers such as conflict, climate change and extremes, economic slowdowns, and the high cost and growing inequalities of nutritious food, food insecurity and malnutrition will remain a key challenge.
The two UN officials called for the advancement of joint efforts in the spirit of multilateralism. They point out that in such a challenging situation, we are all called upon to come together and shoulder our shared responsibility to address and solve this problem. As the UN Secretary-General has said, "Repairing the world requires a world." (It takes a world to fix the world) For us, standing by is not an option.
They called on the international community to urgently support affected peoples, communities and countries through concerted action. They commended several initiatives launched by Governments, institutions and political forums over the past few months. These actions have mobilized leadership, funding, political will and a broad policy response to the global food crisis.
They believe that, in order to succeed, we must all work together to ensure that our actions in response to the crisis are consistent. With millions of lives at stake, the world's most vulnerable have no extra time to repeat or waste effort.
Two UN officials cited priorities for policy response.
First, strengthen humanitarian response to those who already need it. Addressing the crisis and the vicious circle it has created requires an approach that focuses on the current emergency and focuses firmly on strengthening livelihoods in response to future shocks.
Secondly, urgently stabilize markets, debt and commodity prices and immediately restore the availability, accessibility and affordability of food so that the right to food can be realized for all people everywhere. Countries are urged to continue to put strategic food reserves and resources to markets, minimize hoarding and other speculation and avoid unnecessary trade restrictions.
Third, encourage family farmers, small-scale food producers, small or medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and cooperatives to increase local production; Increase consumption of diverse food varieties; Diversification of imported food sources; Reduce food loss and food waste.
Fourth, restore fertilizer supplies to ensure that smallholder and family farmers have continued access to affordable fertilizers. This should go hand in hand with the transition to sustainable and inclusive production advocated by the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit, including a commitment to improve the efficiency of energy and fertilizer use and unlock the potential of agroecology and other innovative approaches to sustainable agriculture.
Fifth, strengthen the necessary social protection systems to prevent vulnerable communities from falling into poverty and further malnutrition. Examples of such measures include time-tested school feeding programmes to address the impact of the crisis on child malnutrition, or cash transfer schemes to increase the purchasing power of poor families.
Sixth, and finally, countries need financial resources and fiscal space to support a strong national response to the crisis. To finance existing international finance facilities; The International Monetary Fund and the international financial institutions play a vital role. Countries that propose commitments to cut Official Development Assistance (ODA) are urged to reconsider their decisions and respect the goal of allocating 0.7 per cent of their national income to official development assistance.
The lessons of the 2007-08 food crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic show that meaningful and principled policy responses should support country-led response strategies that address every social dimension, including farmers, consumers, civil society and businesses, especially those most affected by the food crisis, the two UN officials wrote.
It is gratifying that many countries in the world, including the most affected, have introduced a range of solutions to mitigate the impact of the crisis on their peoples, which should be encouraged and supported. The UN Secretary-General's Global Crisis Response Team is providing joint analysis and policy recommendations from across the United Nations system.
They argue that we must ensure that our response is aligned with and guided by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as an integrated blueprint for sustainable development.
More importantly, we must remain committed to the sustainable transformation of food systems. Only in this way can we provide adequate, safe, affordable and nutritious food for all, especially in rural areas, with employment and income, while fully respecting the boundaries of environmental safety.
More than when the UN Food Systems Summit was held in September 2021, action is needed to transform food systems.
They concluded by calling that we do everything possible to end this food crisis and prevent future crises. We have the tools and resources to do so. It is time to act together to ensure that no one is left behind.
Editor-in-Charge: Fan Zhu
Proofreader: Luan Meng