The official website of the Civil Aviation Administration of China released the news that the circuit breaker measures for international scheduled passenger flights will be optimized and adjusted from August 7. The adjusted circuit breaker measures are: for a single-entry flight of an airline with a confirmed number of passengers reaching 5 cases, when the proportion of confirmed passengers reaches 4% of the number of inbound passengers on the flight, the operation will be suspended for 1 week; When the proportion of confirmed passengers reaches 8% of the number of inbound passengers on the flight, the operation is suspended for 2 weeks. The amount of fuses may not be adjusted for other routes.
What has changed this time compared to the previous circuit breaker measures? What does it mean? Will international flights be more stable? Will the fare be lowered?
According to the official website of the Civil Aviation Authority.
Optimization: From the mandatory number of people to the proportion of confirmed passengers in flights as an indicator
"The circuit breaker policy for international flights has been significantly adjusted. The biggest change is in proportion to the number of passengers on flights. One of the restrictions that has plagued airlines before is that the fuse standard does not distinguish between models, and the probability of fuse for large models has risen sharply. @FATIII, a well-known aviation blogger, believes that there are two improvements in this optimization.
The first is to use the proportion of confirmed passengers to flight passengers as an indicator, changing the possibility of larger aircraft and greater circuit breaker probability in the past, so that airlines are more willing to send large passenger aircraft to carry out international flights to meet the needs of international routes that are seriously in short supply. "Based on the total of 500 people on the A380 of China Southern Airlines, the same flight needs to be circuitized when the positive reaches 20 people."
This means that the number of confirmed cases reaches 5, but when the passenger capacity is not reached 4%, the flight will not be circuitized. Some analysts believe that large aircraft such as the A380 and B747 may have more advantages to fly some routes with high demand.
The second is to shorten the circuit breaker period, when the number of confirmed people is more than 5 people and reaches 4% of the total number of flight passengers, the circuit breaker is a lot more relaxed than the original two weeks of circuit breaker as long as 5 people are reached. "A super meltdown like the one that China Southern Airlines has experienced for more than a month on the Los Angeles route should not happen again." @FATIII representation.
He believes that "as the supply increases, the price of international flight tickets is also expected to fall". For some time, uncertainties such as circuit breakers that may be announced at any time have made the price of foreign flights to domestic flights soar, and even a ticket is difficult to find.
On July 7, an Air China passenger plane landed at Budapest Liszt International Airport in Hungary. Xinhua News Agency
Since June 2020, it has been circuitized 727 times, reducing the number of inbound passenger flights by 1679
Prior to this, the circuit breaker policy was implemented in accordance with the Notice on the Trial Adjustment of Circuit Breaker Measures for International Scheduled Passenger Flights issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China on April 28, 2021. When there are 5 new positive cases within one week of entry, the circuit breaker mechanism will be triggered. Depending on the number of confirmed cases, it is called small fuses, large fuses and super large fuses.
Including: if the number of confirmed passengers on an airline's single-entry flight reaches 5 cases, the operation of the flight will be suspended for 2 weeks from the fourth week of flight entry; If the number of confirmed passengers on a single-entry flight of an airline reaches 10, the operation of the flight will be suspended for 4 weeks from the fourth week of arrival of the flight. If the number of confirmed passengers in two consecutive flights reaches 10 cases, the current week will be immediately circuited down, and the cumulative suspension of operation will be 8 weeks; If the number of confirmed passengers on an airline's single-entry flight reaches 30, it will be immediately melted down that week and the flight will be suspended for 4 weeks.
Taking the circuit breaker instruction issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China on July 6 as an example, Hainan Airlines Flight HU7992 (Rome to Chongqing), which entered on June 24, has confirmed 5 cases of new crown pneumonia passengers, and since July 11, the flight has been suspended for two flights. China Eastern Airlines flight MU208 (Toronto to Hangzhou), which entered on June 26, confirmed 10 cases of COVID-19 passengers, and since August 8, the flight has been suspended for 4 flights.
"Since the circuit breaker measures are related to the number of confirmed cases imported from abroad, we do not know which day it will meltdown, and it is impossible to predict in advance whether the future flight can take off." A staff member of China Southern Airlines told Nandu reporter that the circuit breaker is not decided by the company, and it depends on the circuit breaker instruction issued by the Civil Aviation Administration.
On May 23, at the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, Kong Fanwei, deputy director of the Flight Standards Department of the Civil Aviation Administration, introduced that the Civil Aviation Administration strictly implements circuit breaker measures. "Since 2022, a total of 312 circuit breakers have been implemented, reducing the number of inbound passenger flights by 768. According to statistics, since the implementation of the circuit breaker policy in June 2020, a total of 727 circuit breakers have been implemented, reducing the number of inbound passenger flights by 1679, effectively reducing the risk of importation of overseas cases. "It can also be seen from this set of data that the number of circuit breakers has increased significantly this year.
On July 16, a direct flight arrived at Belgrade Airport in Serbia. Xinhua News Agency
The Civil Aviation Authority said it would gradually increase the number of international flights
Before the adjustment of the circuit breaker measures, another major adjustment was the shortening of the isolation and control time for inbound personnel.
On June 28, the National Health Commission announced the "Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Prevention and Control Plan (Ninth Edition)" clearly adjusted the isolation and control time of close contact and entry personnel from "14 days of centralized isolation medical observation + 7 days of home health monitoring" (14+7) to "7 days of centralized isolation medical observation + 3 days of home health monitoring" (7+3).
According to reports, after the release of the plan, the instantaneous search volume of international air tickets on the platform has doubled, reaching the highest peak of international air ticket search volume on the platform in the past two years. Lan Xiang, president of Qunar Big Data Research Institute, believes that the reduction of the quarantine time back to China by half means that the reception and guarantee capabilities of the quarantined hotels back to China have been enhanced, and it has also laid the foundation for the increase in the number of flights returning home in the future. The growth of the number of return flights is conducive to the flow of people at home and abroad, and also opens the way for the decline in the fare of return flights.
In recent times, many domestic airlines have accelerated the pace of gradually resuming international flights, and many foreign airlines have also announced the resumption of flights to and from China, which has boosted market confidence to a certain extent. At the press conference of the Civil Aviation Administration of China in July, Xu Qing, deputy director of the Transportation Department of the Civil Aviation Administration, responded that considering the needs of international personnel exchanges such as overseas students returning home, the Civil Aviation Administration will continue to strengthen consultations with relevant countries and gradually increase the number of international flights.
The number of international flights is closely related to the "Five Ones" policy
However, some experts said that in addition to the circuit breaker mechanism, the number of international flights is also closely related to the "five ones" policy, which still needs to be adjusted.
The "Five Ones" policy, that is, in order to reduce the risk of importation of the epidemic, in March 2020, the Civil Aviation Administration of China required Chinese and foreign airlines to operate international passenger flights in accordance with the method of "one airline, one country, one route once a week". In June of the same year, the Notice of the Civil Aviation Administration on Adjusting International Passenger Flights emphasized that each domestic airline can only retain 1 route to any country, and each route must not operate more than 1 flight per week; Each foreign airline can only keep 1 route to the mainland, and the number of flights per week must not exceed 1.
In this case, the number of international flights is already very limited. "The 'Five Ones' are not adjusted, and the other adjustments are not fundamental." The driver of a certain airline told nandu reporter.
Written by: Nandu reporter Chen Qiuyuan sent from Beijing