"The Energy Crisis Is Global" and "How to Feed the World", the title of two articles recently published in the US "Foreign Policy", tells the dual crisis facing the world: the energy crisis and the food crisis. At present, whether it is an oil and gas channel or a grain transportation channel, it is facing tremendous pressure.
On July 26, the IMF again lowered its economic growth forecast for 2022 and 2023.
Whether the "grain road" and the oil and gas transportation road can be smoothed has become a key link.
Russia attacks Ukrainian military warehouses Russia said the move would not affect the start of grain transportation
On July 23, the Russian military used two Caliber cruise missiles to strike a military warehouse in the Ukrainian port of Odessa where missiles were stored.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: The target hit by the high-precision strike is located in a separate part of the port of Odessa, the so-called military part, which targets a warship of the Ukrainian armed forces and an ammunition depot. Harpoon anti-ship missiles were delivered there shortly before, posing a threat to Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
The destroyed Harpoon anti-ship missile, developed by the American company Macdonald-Douglas, is one of the most important anti-ship weapons actively operated by the U.S. Navy and Air Force, and can be launched from aircraft, various surface warships, and submarines.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the U.S.-made missiles arrived at the port of Odessa not long ago.
Sikinga, former Minister of Commerce, Trade and Industry of Zambia: Any country that supplies weapons to Ukraine will lead to a further escalation of the conflict, not a proper resolution of the conflict.
On June 15, the White House announced $1 billion worth of military assistance to Ukraine, including two shore-based Harpoon anti-ship missile systems.
Two days later, on June 17, the Russian tugboat "Spasatl Vasily Bech" was destroyed by Harpoon missiles while delivering weapons and personnel to Snake Island.
According to reports, the ship was carrying a set of "Thor-M2MK" anti-aircraft missile system at that time.
On June 30, the Russian army announced the withdrawal of Snake Island, releasing goodwill to maintain the "food supply line".
In the Wall Street Journal's view, the Harpoon missile is the type of equipment that Ukraine has always wanted. It threatened both the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the grain fleet of the past. This is unbearable for the Russian side.
Pierre, Professor of International Politics at the State University of São Paulo, Brazil: Whether it is the deployment of missiles in Ukraine or Ukraine's accession to NATO, it has become a real threat and unacceptable for sovereign countries like Russia.
At that time, Russian military expert Dmitry Bordenkov pointed out that Russian intelligence must find out where these "harpoons" are hiding.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov: This [against missile depots] has nothing to do with the infrastructure involved in fulfilling the agreement and exporting grain, so it will not and should not have any impact on the start of food transportation.
The Joint Coordination Center for Grain Shipments in the Black Sea has been officially launched, but risks still exist
On July 27, the Black Sea Joint Coordination Center for Grain Shipments was officially launched in Islamabar, Turkey.
Turkish Defense Minister Akar: The Joint Coordination Center will register and monitor the relevant commercial grain carriers and technically monitor the routes of the grain carriers through satellite, Internet and other means of communication.
The Joint Coordination Center is located in the Levant Campus of the Turkish National Defense University, composed of five representatives from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations, each with a separate office in the Joint Coordination Center, and an operation center for all parties to jointly supervise the loading and unloading of grain ships, weapons inspection, shipping routes, etc.
According to the agreement, Ukraine will demine at ports and release grain carriers into the high seas; Russia, Turkey and another person to be determined escorted the grain carrier to the Bosphorus. According to the Associated Press analysis, according to the agreement, more than 20 million tons of grain stranded in the port need to be shipped out within 4 months, which means that four to five large cargo ships are expected to transport grain out of the port every day. At present, the three relevant ports are already working on loading and unloading grain and related cargo. According to Al Jazeera reported on the 29th, the United Nations expects that the first batch of grain carriers will leave the Ukrainian port as early as this week.
Reporter: When will the first grain carriers pass through the Bosphorus Strait?
Kenny, interim representative of the United Nations to the Joint Coordination Centre: I can't speculate, I believe it will be soon.
At the same time, uncertainty exists.
In May, a mine was swept off the coast of Odessa, and Ukrainian soldiers rushed to take steps to prevent the explosion.
At the entrances to ports of Odessa, Ocyakov, Chernomorsk, etc., the Ukrainian military has placed hundreds of such mines, and the Russian Federal Security Service has noted that due to the storm, some anchor mines have now been detached from the mines and drifted with the waves, posing a considerable risk to passing ships and even neighboring countries.
In 1988, the U.S. guided-missile frigate USS Roberts accidentally touched a mine in the Persian Gulf and was severely damaged, taking six months to repair and costing nearly $90 million.
According to the Romanian security forces, fishermen have found floating mines off the coast of Romania.
To this end, Romania, in conjunction with the Turkish Navy, conducted joint mine action.
Former Turkish Rear Admiral Yayts: The United Nations should question Ukraine, and while Turkey has a strong demining capability, it is irresponsible to let it go.
Barrier nets have been pulled up on the beaches of Odessa to block people's way to swim in the sea, but fishermen in the vicinity have to take risks to make ends meet.
Fisherman Shaheen: If you don't see the mine, once it explodes you're finished, it can detonate with a slight touch, and night fishing is now prohibited.
Grain exports from Russia and Ukraine have been blocked
At present, Ukraine transports grain to neighboring countries such as Poland and Romania through railways, roads and Danube shipping, and then exports it to more countries. However, compared to Black Sea shipping, the capacity gap between these modes of transport is significant.
Transporting grain to neighboring Poland in such a large truck takes more than a dozen days and is expensive on the way.
Still, there are long lines along the Border between Ukraine and Poland, with drivers usually queuing up to seven days.
Ukrainian truck driver Vladimir: There are too few lanes, so we always have problems like this, I've been here for two days, and that's not a big deal.
The Russian-style 1.52-meter gauge of trains in Ukraine is slightly wider than the 1.435-meter gauge of most European countries, a discrepancy that leads to the transfer of all goods at the transit station, an additional cost that makes rail food transportation expensive and time-consuming.
Polish railway staff Dubkiewicz: We work 24 hours a day.
In danube waters, about 100 merchant ships lined up to enter the port, which could only accommodate ships with smaller hulls.
Member of the Romanian Coast Guard: I have never seen so many ships come here, more than 100 ships are waiting, which is beyond Romania's capabilities, the crux of the problem is the lack of capacity in Ukrainian ports.
Inside Ukraine, it is the wheat harvest season.
Ukrainian farmer Lazarenko: This grain is all for export, and Ukraine can't consume so much grain in the country.
Ukrainian granary manager Pinjaz: We have 6,000 tons of grain stored here, and in the next harvest season, where are we going to pile the wheat?
Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has also been hampered recently.
Due to the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia, there is a shortage of large Cargo Ships in Russia. According to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, Russian ships are barred from going to Mediterranean ports, while foreign ships are also barred from going to Russian ports to transport food and other goods.
Western sanctions exacerbate food security risks in Africa
According to data released by the African Development Bank, Russia and Ukraine supplied more than 40% of Africa's wheat in previous years.
But now, Western sanctions have exacerbated food security risks in Africa.
Nakujan, Kenyan: We are hungry because we have nothing to eat, only wild berries, no livestock, nothing, we live on trees that grow berries, and that's what we eat.
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Africa has been short of 30 million tons of food, and food prices across the continent have risen by about 40 percent.
In the view of analysts, if the United States and the West want to restore the food supply chain, the United States and the West cannot "stir up trouble.".
Kenyan international expert Kinouchi: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has brought chaos to the world, the West led by the United States is the main culprit, and russian or Ukrainian grain cannot be transported to other parts of the world, resulting in food shortages in some parts of the world.
Russian Foreign Minister's Trip to Africa: Western Countries Call for "Isolation" African Countries Warmly Welcome It
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov embarked on a trip to Africa on July 23, just a day after russia and Ukraine reached an agreement on food exports.
"Guys, I heard you were forbidden to take pictures of me."
As soon as this statement came out, there was a burst of laughter.
Lavrov was referring to a document he had seen before his departure from the League of Arab States, which referred to an initiative against the League by representatives of the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union. The initiative particularly emphasizes that no documents should be signed with the Russian side and that no group photo should be taken with the representatives of the Russian side.
According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova, on the eve of Lavrov's trip to Africa, US diplomats went to many African countries in advance and asked officials from these countries not to take photos with Lavrov one by one, so as to create the illusion that Russia is isolated.
According to the New York Times, Western diplomats also privately lobbied the Egyptian government to "not give the Russian foreign minister too warm reception."
However, the reality is:
The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Borrell, complained awkwardly to the Western media: "Report more about me, don't report on Lavrov!" ”
Egypt, one of the world's largest wheat importers, has now risen from $130 per tonne to more than $500 in wheat imports.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: The situation in Ukraine did have an additional negative impact on the food market, but it was not because of Russia's special military action, but because of the inappropriate response of the West, which announced sanctions to undermine the food supply chain.
Lavrov promised that Exporters of Russian agricultural products would do their best to meet orders.
However, about 70 foreign ships were stranded as Ukraine planted mines in waters near the port.
One of the ships, which was supposed to deliver food to Egypt, was trapped like a hostage in a Ukrainian port by a mine.
– Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov
Ugandan President Museveni has long been seen as an iconic figure in Africa's opposition to Western colonialism.
Ugandan President Museveni: Whenever a problem arises, there are always people who want us to take an anti-Russian stance, and we say that they (Russia) have stood with us for the last 100 years, not you (the West), how can we oppose them (Russia)?
In congo (Brazzaville), the foreign minister, Gakoso, greeted Lavrov in Russian and told reporters in Russian about his experience of studying abroad at Zhdanov University in Leningrad, saying that learning Russian is now popular in Congo (Brazzaville).
At the same time, a "diplomatic race" is quietly underway.
On July 24, Mike Hammer, the U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa, traveled to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia for talks. On July 25, French President Emmanuel Macron also traveled to three West African countries.
In fact, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, most African countries have avoided taking sides.
In March, the United Nations held a vote condemning Russia, and 17 African countries abstained.
Ndegova, African Public Policy Expert, American International University, Kenya: [African countries] know that they have always been victims of foreign interference in their own affairs, and regime changes have occurred in Africa, and many of them are instigated by the West.
The "gas route" between Russia and Europe has tightened again
Compared with the "grain road" that is expected to recover, the "gas route" between Russia and Europe has tightened again.
This week, the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline once again halved gas shipments, and the turbines seized by the West on sanctions have not yet been returned.
This puts Europe in a difficult position: "How's this winter?" ”
Parkour juniors in Paris, France, have a new way to play. Turning off the signs on the Champs Elysées late at night, the "Lamp Extinguisher" received many netizens' praise.
Behind the parkour show is Europe's intensifying energy crisis.
On July 27, russia's Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline halved gas shipments to Europe again, to 20 percent of full load, or about 33 million cubic meters per day, as a turbine required technical maintenance.
According to the Russian "Kommersant" newspaper, according to the technical requirements, the Portovaya compressor station should have 5 turbines in working state and 1 turbine in the heat reserve state to achieve the maximum gas supply, and only one turbine is currently in normal working condition.
Malkolov, Vice President of Gazprom: Last December, the Siemens 073 turbine was sent to a plant in Canada for repairs, and we expect to retrieve it in May this year, but the turbine has not been returned to Russia so far. Due to Western anti-Russian sanctions, the turbine was not sent back to Russia from Canada, but was shipped to Germany without Gazprom's consent.
It was the failure of the West to return the turbines on time and the inability to rotate overhauls at the Portovaya compressor station, which prevented nord Stream-1 from being able to deliver gas to Germany normally, and European gas futures prices soared to a record 223.85 euros per MWh this week.
On July 27, seven mayors of the German island of Rügen sent a joint letter to the state and federal governments proposing to start the Nord Stream-2 pipeline to ensure natural gas supply.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Speaking of Nord Stream-2, it is ready to ease the current situation and meet the energy needs of Europe, which is remaining closed purely for political reasons.
Many European countries are worried about the winter and even restart coal power projects
Europe's heating season this year began on October 1, and many countries are already worried about the winter.
On July 29, Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez wore an open-collar shirt at the press conference.
Spanish Prime Minister Alexis Sanchez: If it is not necessary, do not wear a tie so that we can save energy, which is very necessary in our country.
An apartment building in Cologne, Germany, turned off a heating boiler for energy efficiency, raising concerns among the family of an 86-year-old grandmother.
Accamis, a citizen of Cologne: She needs warmth, especially in winter, because she is older.
Cologne's outdoor pool also stopped filling with hot water.
Messinger, Citizen of Cologne: I like cold, I'm happy, but I know a lot of people aren't going to be happy.
At present, Germany has launched the second level of "alert" level of the natural gas emergency plan.
Claudia Kemfert, an energy expert at the German Institute for Economic Research, warned that private consumers could face up to 400 percent increase in natural gas prices starting this winter.
The German Greens, a center-left environmentalist party, advocate against nuclear energy.
On July 25, Kreichmann, the governor of Germany's Bafro state from the Green Party, was asked by the moderator whether he would continue to refuse to extend the life of nuclear power, and said more than a dozen "no" in a row.
Even the most stubborn Greens cannot remain tough on nuclear energy, and Germany is really choked by energy this time.
On July 21, Germany announced a new energy security package that included restarting lignite power generation and suspending plans for the closure of several coal-fired power plants.
Recently, many European countries have also announced the resumption of abandoned coal power projects, which has caused a lot of controversy in the world.
The EU intends to relax its own standards, but it does not relax the carbon emission requirements of other countries and regions, which is a typical "double standard".
—Sharif Ghali, Professor of Political Science at the University of Abuja, Nigeria
Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán bluntly said that sanctions against Russia are not working, but European countries are "collapsing like dominoes." Earlier, he also said that eu sanctions against Russia were like "shooting at one's own lungs."
The Eu has reached a "solar saving" plan for self-help
EU Energy Commissioner Simson: Good morning, we will discuss today what the EU is preparing for the upcoming winter.
On 26 July, EU member states agreed on a "gas saving" package, agreeing to reduce their use of natural gas by 15% on a voluntary basis between 1 August this year and 31 March next year. But in the event of a shortage of natural gas supplies, the EU has the right to enforce the plan.
German Economy Minister Habeck: 15% is calculated, based on Russia's reduced gas supply to Europe.
However, this is actually a "shrinking version" of the plan. The original plan, unveiled by the European Commission on July 20, proposes to adopt a "one-size-fits-all" approach that would allow member states to save 15 percent of their temperance. Because of the specific interests of each country, the plan was explicitly opposed by many member states such as Spain, Malta and Poland.
As a result, a "scaled-down" scheme has added a number of exemptions and exceptions. For example, member states that are not interconnected with other member countries' gas networks can be exempt from mandatory "gas savings." The EU explained this because even if these countries cut their use of natural gas, they will not be able to deliver the surplus gas to other member states.
U.S. Sanctions Against Russia Are Repulsive And the economic outlook is pessimistic
It's not just Europe that's giving the "red light."
On July 28, the US Department of Commerce released data showing that the US economy shrank for the second consecutive quarter, and many analysts believe that the US economy fell into a "technical recession".
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell: I don't think the U.S. is in a recession right now because there are so many areas of the economy that are doing well.
But recently, the International Monetary Fund has lowered its US economic growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to 2.3% and 1.0%, respectively. This is the second time in the near future that the IMF has lowered this forecast, arguing that the outlook for U.S. economic growth has deteriorated.
White House economic adviser Brian Dees "slipped his lips" in his arguments against food-deficit countries.
White House Economic Adviser Brian Dees: I think our economy is more resilient in the face of challenges, like food, the U.S. is a net exporter of agricultural products, and obviously high food prices are a very severe blow to Americans, but in a way that's different from countries that are facing famine.
In fact, America's three major food giants and oil companies have all made a lot of money in the global food and oil crisis.
But ordinary Americans have suffered in this round of "Biden recession".
According to a report released by the U.S. Economic Consultative Council, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 95.7 in July, the third consecutive month of decline and its lowest level since February 2021.
The Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve recently also pointed out that prices have soared across the board, eroding the disposable income of the American people.
SENATOR WARREN: In fact, just a few weeks ago, I asked Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a hearing, can raising interest rates help curb oil prices? He said no.
Recently, U.S. oil prices, while falling, are still about 46 percent higher than they were a year ago. Even U.S. government officials have acknowledged that falling oil prices are not enough to offset the rapid rise in rents and house prices.
CNN noted that in the face of recession, some us businesses have experienced "shrinking inflation" in order to reduce costs.
A small box of Shujie tissues, which was 65 a few months ago, has now become 60; A roll of soft angel toilet paper, which used to be 425 sheets, has now shrunk to 320 sheets; One of Ahomei's cleaning products has a 10% reduction in net weight.
Host of the American TV show "The Daily Show": The production student quietly reduced the size of the product, but you still pay so much money, you may have noticed, right? That day you bought a big packet of potato chips that everyone could share, and recently you opened the bag of potato chips, and there was only one in it, holding up the whole bag.
In the view of analysts, the United States attempts to choke the neck of "opponents" through economic sanctions, but sanctions not only block the "grain route" and "gas road", constantly push up the price of global bulk products, and greatly limit domestic production and consumption capacity, and in the end, they swallow the economic consequences themselves.
William Ruger, director of the American Institute of Economic Research: This is typical U.S. policy, and the U.S. government advocates that these sanctions can bring benefits to American taxpayers and the world, but in fact it is lifting a stone and dropping it on its own feet.
The "grain route" and the "gas road" have become the key factors related to the trend of international relations
The Financial Times noted that while European and American politicians are arguing endlessly about "high politics" topics such as state power and military security, food and energy, which are related to people's livelihood, may become key factors in determining the direction of international relations in the future.
Because once the "grain route" and "gas route" are blocked, the economy of the relevant countries will inevitably be greatly affected.
For Western countries where the "anti-elite sentiment" of the people has become more and more fierce, "people's livelihood is the biggest politics."