Source: Global Times
Editor's note: According to a poll recently published by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, more than 90 percent of the Japanese people believe that Tokyo should make preparations for the "Taiwan incident" caused by China's "invasion" of Taiwan. A recent survey by the Loy Institute for International Policy, an Australian think tank, shows that three-quarters of Australians believe that China is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years. These two surveys are only a small part of the polls released by relevant agencies in Japan and Australia in recent years showing the "tension" between Japan and China and between Australia and China, but do they reflect the real public opinion? Murao, a former executive director of Japan's Central Bureau of Investigation, has said that to obtain relatively objective and accurate results, polls should avoid inducing questions, and respondents should also achieve sample balance in age and gender. However, the Global Times reporter's analysis of the relevant polls in Japan and Australia found that many polls did not meet the above requirements, and some people in the political circles of Japan and Australia spent a lot of effort in deliberately guiding public opinion, in order to endorse their China policy.
The "inaccurate" of the Japanese polls stems from these factors
In addition to the Nikkei Keizai Shimbun poll, a poll released by the Japanese Cabinet Office in late January also showed that Japan-China relations were deteriorating. According to the survey, Japanese respondents who believe that Japan-China relations are "not good" and "not very good" accounted for 85.2% of all respondents, an increase of 3.4 percentage points over the last survey in 2020; 14.5% of respondents who believe that Japan-China relations are "good" and "not very good", a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared with 2020.
Whether or not to "pursue" is important
Some analysts believe that the reason why the Japanese people hold the above views on Japan-China relations has a huge relationship with the influence of the Japanese media. Japanese documentary filmmaker Ryo Takeuchi previously said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that the Japanese people are more influenced by the media, especially tv stations, and the coverage rate of Japanese television stations "black" China is significantly higher than that of other programs. The Japanese people are not interested in international affairs, nor do they like to go abroad, and when they see such reports on television, they believe it, and naturally have a bad impression of China.
In recent years, there have been different media polls in Japan and the convergence of media polls and government positions. Okada, a guest commentator at Japan's Kyodo News Agency, told the Global Times that the Asahi Shimbun, which used to be considered to represent liberals, and the Sankei Shimbun, which was considered to represent conservatives, would deviate greatly from the poll results toward China and Russia. Now, however, there is little difference in the results of the polls conducted by the two media outlets.
In Okada's view, the media's reduction of oversight of the government and its shift to "integration" with the government are important reasons for accelerating this convergence. For example, he said, the anchors of NHK's evening news programs would use expressions such as "strengthening maritime activities" and "China threat" when referring to China, with adversarial adjectives with inflammatory implications.
In addition, there is another characteristic of Japanese society, that is, many people do not want to be "outliers" and want to agree with most people. In this case, if the government or the media creates an atmosphere in which the people think that this is what the majority of the people think, the Japanese mentality of "going with the flow" will be pressed to form a "public opinion" that is consistent with the position of the authorities.
The problem setting is also an important reason for the deviation of some Japanese poll results. Huo Jiangang, an associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asia at the China Academy of Contemporary International Relations, explained that if the investigation agency provided some inducing background information or questions when setting up questions, it could lead to distorted results. For example, the "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" poll at the end of May was set against the background of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, setting the premise that the Chinese mainland "invaded" Taiwan, but did not mention that the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair, which is completely different from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Some people believe that some Japanese media have used the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to play up the "China threat" as a way to "loosen" Japan's further military strength and revise the constitution, and the relevant polls are conducted in this context.
Whether pollsters ask questions during investigations also affects the results of the investigation. Some respondents may have been vague in their responses to questions they were reluctant to answer. At this time, if the survey agency asks, the respondents will generally reluctantly make a choice, which is not necessarily their true thinking. Ryo Takeuchi said that the Japanese people's impression of China is not more about whether they like it or not, but whether they are interested or not. If you ask the average Japanese person" "What do you think of China", the other party will most likely reply "I don't have any ideas, I am not interested in other countries.". However, if the survey agency had to choose between "like" and "dislike", Japanese respondents might say "dislike".
Telephone surveys and web surveys, the results are different
In order to democratize Japan after World War II, the United States led the introduction of a polling system in Japan. In this context, Japan established the Public Opinion Survey Association in 1948 and the Japan Public Opinion Survey Association in 1950. Polls of all kinds have now become an important part of the life of public opinion in Japan.
The main institutions conducting polls in Japan include government agencies such as the Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as large media such as Kyodo News Agency, Asahi Shimbun, and NHK Television. Some advertising agencies also conduct surveys, but they generally conduct surveys of commercial and market issues.
The Cabinet Office will entrust the investigation to the Central Investigation Agency, which conducts the investigation in two ways: first, directly interview the respondents and interview them; The second is to mail the questionnaire to the respondent, and the other party fills it out and sends it back. In addition to the above two methods, the Japanese media also conduct surveys through random phone calls and the Internet.
Different survey methods may lead to different respondents being exposed to, and thus different answers. For example, if you conduct a survey by calling a landline, the respondents you are mostly exposed to are elderly people who have a conservative view. If surveyed online, respondents may be more young, and their views may be more open.
In terms of the number of poll samples, the number of samples distributed by major Japanese media is basically about 2,000. General media can recover 60% of the samples, so the effective samples are about 1200 copies. The sample number of surveys in the Cabinet Office is relatively high, reaching 3,000 or even tens of thousands of copies depending on the situation.
Polls influence the political environment in Japan
Polls are playing an increasingly strong role in Japan's political life. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has paid special attention to polls on support, and if his support rate declines, he will consider implementing boosting measures. In fact, this is true of every Japanese government and every prime minister, because if the support of the government and the prime minister is not maintained in a certain numerical range, the current government and the prime minister will be regarded as in a "dangerous situation" in power.
Polls and the public opinion they influence are also influencing the Japanese political environment, and some politicians have even been held hostage by these two factors. Huo Jiangang said: In recent years, the japanese public opinion position has been occupied by right-wing forces, but anyone who wants to win votes does not dare to come out and tell the truth about Sino-Japanese relations. Okada said that most of Japan's "Zhihua faction" MPs try not to discuss diplomatic topics as much as possible when participating in elections, because this may be attacked by opponents for "flattery" and so on, resulting in a decrease in the number of votes. Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Fangzheng resigned as president of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians Alliance because he was labeled "pro-China" by his opponents.
The former Australian government often conducted polls after breaking the news and speculating
According to an annual poll recently released by the Loy Institute for International Policy, an Australian think tank, only 12 per cent of Australian respondents said they "have some" or "a lot" of trust in China, down 40 percentage points from 2018. However, six years ago, the agency's poll also showed that 30% of Australians regardEd China as Australia's "best friend" in Asia, higher than 25% who regard Japan as their "best friend". So why has The Australian's attitude toward China changed so dramatically?
The Lowy Institute for International Policy, which bills itself as a "independent policy think tank without partisanship," has been tracking Australians' opinions on a range of important diplomatic issues every year since 2005. A Global Times reporter reviewing the annual reports of the Roy Institute for International Policy found that in 2008, China appeared for the first time as the subject of an independent investigation in the "regional powers" of the think tank's annual survey.
In addition to the Lowy Institute for International Policy Studies, the main polling agencies active in Australia include international institutions such as Ipsos, as well as a number of large polling agencies in Australia. In this year's general election, australian local polling agencies with more media citations include Roy Morgan and the News Polling Institute. Polling firms such as Roy Morgan are less likely to publish poll reports devoted to China-related topics. With the exception of the Lowy Institute for International Policy Studies, most of Australia's polls on China-China-Australia relations are conducted by universities and research departments, such as the Australian Institute's International and Security Affairs Program and the Australia-China Institute of Relations at the University of Technology Sydney.
Australian polls largely echo the government's agenda and news hotspots. For example, in 2016, when the ruling in the South China Sea arbitration case was released, Australia began to intervene in the South China Sea issue in a high profile since then, and hyped up the "China threat". That same year, the South China Sea issue entered the Roy Institute for International Policy polls for the first time.
The Global Times reporter combed the Report of the Lowy Institute for International Policy And found that Australians' perceptions of China began to change in 2017 and underwent a major shift in 2019. In 2019, the agency's survey showed that only 32 per cent of Australians said they believed China would "act responsibly in the world", down 20 percentage points from 2018. 77 per cent of Australians believe the country should do more to resist so-called Chinese "military activities" in the region, even if it affects Australia-China economic relations. This figure is up 11 percentage points compared to 2015.
Chen Hong, director of the Australian Research Center of East China Normal University, told the Global Times reporter on the 13th that rather than saying that the Loy International Policy Institute poll reflects public opinion, it is better to reflect that the former Australian government catered to the United States to contain China and cooperated with the media to demonize China, thus worsening the Australian people's perception of China. Chen Hong said that the former Australian government, media and polling agencies have formed a complete chain of public opinion manipulation against China: first the anti-China position of the former Australian government intelligence department and other institutions and politicians to expose the news to the media, and then the media will further expand the relevant negative information related to China, after influencing the Australian people's views on China, the former Australian government will entrust polling agencies to conduct investigations, and then launch a China policy. When the Global Times reporter was stationed in Australia a few years ago, he found that the Australian people did not pay special attention to China, but because the negative reports of the Australian media on China have increased in recent years, many people's negative sentiment towards China has also increased.
Chen Hong stressed that the demonization of China by the Australian media is all-encompassing, for example, if the TV news program involves China, the accompanying picture is often a Chinese military parade, which further renders the so-called "China poses a military threat to Australia". Australian media will even mislead the public through mistranslations. For example, chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently put forward four-point proposals to improve relations between the two countries during a meeting with the Australian foreign minister, while the Australian News Network and other media translated "suggestions" into "demands", and the Australian prime minister subsequently said that he would not respond to these "demands".
Asking inducing questions is a common tactic used in many Australian polls on China. For example, the Institute of Australia-China Relations at the University of Technology Sydney asked in a poll: "Do you think it is right for the Australian government to publicly condemn any Chinese government-backed cybersecurity attack against Australia?" The question, without presenting evidence, concluded that the Chinese government "supports cybersecurity attacks," a preconceived stance that completely violates the principle that polls should be objective.
The same situation has emerged in a previous survey by the Lowy Institute for International Policy Research. The agency asked respondents: "In response to China's increasing military activities in the South China Sea, the United States has been conducting maritime operations to ensure freedom of navigation in the region." Are you personally in favor of or against Australia's similar actions to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea? The investigation refers to U.S. activities in the South China Sea as "ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea," implying its legitimacy while ignoring China's sovereignty and security interests. What the results of these inducing questions can be imagined.