The EU is preparing for the worst, and on the 154th day of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the reaction will increase and Germany's attitude will change

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict developed to the 154th day, and the struggle between all parties around the Russian-Ukrainian conflict did not relax at all. Whether it's is Istanbul's grain export deal or the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the struggle between the parties is becoming increasingly fierce.

Regarding the safe transportation of grain in Ukraine, ukraine's grain exports have not yet proceeded in an orderly manner, and the problem is that the West has not compromised.

The problem is simple, as Lavrov said in Egypt: the West cannot hinder Russian grain exports while guaranteeing Ukrainian grain exports.

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The so-called Russian grain export here creates obstacles, not that Russia wants to export grain to the West, but that the West sanctions Russia's grain ships, which makes Russian ships to friendly countries often encounter special treatment that cannot dock in ports, and the West is also sanctioning Russia on some payment issues.

Is Russia's demands too high?

It has to be said that Ukraine's grain exports have been restricted. The West blamed it on the Russian blockade, which did not mention sanctions on Russian grain exports.

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First: As the world's largest wheat exporter, the safe export of Russian wheat plays a key role in stabilizing global food prices. As the West, against the backdrop of payment systems and various sanctions, Russia has announced that it will not export grain to non-friendly countries, and food prices within the European Union have risen at one point as Russia blockades Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.

The reason is that the EU has made a choice for Ukraine. It's not what Russia has to do to the EU, it's that the EU has to get into trouble on its own. Russia's military campaign against Ukraine is mainly to prevent NATO from expanding eastward and preventing the West's color revolution against Ukraine.

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Second: Some countries in Africa and the Middle East are very dependent on Russian wheat, but if the United States is blocked, it will be difficult for Russian wheat to be exported smoothly to these countries. After all, in order to punish Russia, the United States forces many countries, and not everyone can be like India and Turkey Turkey, no one dares to offend any country without a card.

Therefore, in the context of the commitment to unseal Ukrainian ports, Russia's demand for the West to take a step is a very reasonable request. If the West does not want to budge, the Ukrainian grain exports reached in Istanbul will not be implemented smoothly.

Third: Russia is now using Ukrainian grain exports to demand that the West lift the corresponding sanctions, which is also testing the West's ability to withstand it. If the West makes concessions, the parties may reach cooperation on many issues, which is more conducive to Russia's future international environment.

Russia has not given up its cooperation with the European Union, although the Russian military is still conducting military operations in Ukraine, and the blows to Donetsk and Nikolayev are getting worse and worse.

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As Ukrainian grain exports approach, the EU's gas problems are becoming more acute. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned the German people on Monday: "Our situation is very serious and it is time for everyone to understand."

Since the turbines repaired by the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline have not yet arrived, and there are turbines that need to be repaired, the amount of natural gas delivered by Nord Stream 1 has now dropped several times. While Germany can buy some gas from the Netherlands and Norway, it is clear that it will not be able to solve such a huge gas gap in the short term. Over time, after Europe enters the autumn and winter seasons, if there are not enough gas reserves, you have to bow to Russia, because the German economy is irresistible and Ukraine is unlikely to collapse.

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The fact that many heads of state in Europe have now resigned shows that Europe has a lot of internal problems. If the cost of living increases, many contradictions will be magnified. When people don't buy it, it doesn't make sense to say anything. You know, for Germany, Germany has a choice. As long as Germany is willing, as soon as the valve of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline is turned, there will be a stable flow of natural gas to Germany.

Nord Stream 2 opening is not harmful to Germany, can reduce energy prices, can solve the urgent need, but Germany is hard mouth, even if the purchase of natural gas around the world does not open Nord Stream 2, however, Germany's attitude may change, after all, Germany admits that because natural gas transmission can not meet demand, this situation disrupts many production chains in Germany and Europe.

Robert Hubbeck also said Germany must reduce its natural gas consumption by at least 20 percent. Only in this way can we maintain normal economic activity. Germany appears to have come under a huge attack for sanctions against Russia. Still, European Commission President von der Leyen said he would sooner or later stop buying Russian gas altogether.

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The EU is not only naïve, but also does not consider Russia's feelings. Since you declare all day long that you will not buy Russian natural gas, you should not accuse Russia of using natural gas as an energy weapon when Russia reduces the amount of natural gas delivered, dare it, if you want to buy, Russia must export gas, you do not want to buy, Russia will be sanctioned, should not the EU first make energy into an energy weapon? Isn't your EU banning the purchase of Russian oil?

In summary, there are only two options for energy issues between Russia and the EU, either to continue cooperation or even expand cooperation. For Germany, if natural gas transmission does not meet the normal economic activity in autumn and winter, Germany is likely to temporarily open Nord Stream 2. After all, Germany cannot get along with itself. Another option is that the EU is willing to bear the huge economic losses of 1-2 years, buying gas from the rest of the world to get rid of its dependence on Russian gas.

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However, it has to be said that the price of gas imported by the EU from elsewhere must be higher than that of Russia, and the EU will include these costs in export commodities, which still increases the pressure on the global economy and is not conducive to easing inflation. Therefore, for the world, the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible, the parties reached a peace agreement, and the resumption of normal economic exchanges are good for the world. However, the West's attitude towards Russia and Ukraine is very tough, and neither side is willing to compromise.

In this case, many unaffiliated countries may be implicated, which is called a fight between gods and mortals.