【Text/Observer Network Wang Mochu】
Faced with the risk of disruption to Nord Stream 1 gas supplies in Russia, the European Union last week set out an emergency plan proposing that all member states need to reduce gas consumption by 15% compared to the average consumption of gas in the same period from 2016 to 2021 between August and March, and save about 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas to cope with the winter. At that time, Poland, Spain and other countries raised objections.
On Monday (25th) local time, diplomats from EU countries discussed a revised proposal, hoping to promote countries to reach an agreement on Tuesday (26th). But the negotiation process showed that "people's hearts are more scattered." This may be because Nord Stream 1 has resumed gas supply on the 21st. Although its natural gas supply has decreased, it has caused a sharp reduction in pressure on EU countries. So countries have "bargained" and moved out their own exemptions...
Euronews reported with the headline "'Mess,' clamor for EU 15% gas cuts"
Each has its own reasons, each makes its own excuses
Recently, European countries have been increasingly worried that Russia will cut off gas supply: on June 15, Gazprom cut its gas supply to Germany by 60% on the grounds of "delayed maintenance of gas turbines"; On July 11, the Russian side announced that the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline began routine maintenance, and the supply of gas to Germany and other European countries will be suspended for 10 days.
To that end, the European Union last week developed an emergency plan proposing that 27 member states unite to reduce gas consumption between August and March by 15 percent compared to average consumption in the same period between 2016 and 2021. This target will initially be voluntary, but the Commission can enforce it in the event of a gas supply emergency. At that time, only a few countries, such as Spain and Poland, expressed their opposition.
However, on July 21, local time, after the "Nord Stream 1" resumed gas supply, the situation changed again.
Although the supply level has only returned to about 40% of the pipeline capacity, and Russia said on Monday local time that it will cut supply by another half this week, reducing supply to 20% of production capacity, but this seems to have made the EU countries lose their previous "concerted efforts".
In the negotiations on the 25th local time, the "opposition group" for this proposal was expanded. EU ambassadors have focused discussions on plans to "jointly reduce gas by 15 percent to survive the winter" on exceptions, exemption grounds and loopholes in the agreement.
"No one knows exactly what the number of gas supply gaps will be," said a European Commission official interviewed by a U.S. "politician" news website, which has also led to differences in how countries perceive the situation. The official bluntly said the EU was still "cautious", but some member states had set the situation in optimistic terms.
According to the US "Politician" news website, Bulgaria, Greece, the Iberian Peninsula countries, Denmark and the Netherlands have proposed various reasons for exemptions.
Bulgaria's prime minister said he "absolutely supports the plan" but that if a crisis occurs, they "may use less coal this winter."
Greece says most of the country's natural gas is used to generate electricity, and cutting gas will only force Greece to increase its electricity imports, so Greece has also been allowed to lower its savings targets.
The Iberian peninsula countries will also be exempt from some of their economy obligations, reportedly given their limited capacity to deliver natural gas to France.
French officials say a 10 percent cut in France's overall energy use over the next two years would already meet the EU's requirements for natural gas conservation.
Denmark and the Netherlands, since they have already reduced their gas consumption in early 2022, will also be able to "add this difference" to their winter gas quotas and can count any gas they have stored that exceeds EU regulations into their contributions to EU savings targets.
In addition, Germany has asked that the gas consumed by its industry be "not taken into account" when determining the mandatory emission reductions, because "Germany's economy is very much related to the economies of neighboring countries". As Europe's largest economy, Germany has been deeply dependent on Russia for gas supplies. Before the Russian-Ukrainian dispute began, 55% of Germany's natural gas supply came from Russia, and the main channel of its supply was the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
The latest proposal would reportedly completely exempt the gas cut target for island member states that do not have connectivity to the European continent, including Cyprus, Ireland and Malta.
Can the EU force countries to reduce their use of natural gas?
Another point of contention in the negotiations is whether to empower the European Commission to force countries to cut their gas use to meet corresponding targets.
Under the Eu's proposed Union Alert system, in the event of a severe gas shortage or particularly high demand, the commission would be empowered to turn a voluntary 15% reduction in gas use across the EU into mandatory action.
According to euronews, the EU's executive branch wants to set the conditions for the launch of this new mechanism as voluntary initiation, or at the request of 3 member states, and will seek the opinion of the Council of the European Union in the process, but does not require its approval; However, this has been opposed by many countries.
The latest proposal suggests that the conditions for launch will change to "approval of commencement by a specific majority" and that the minimum number of countries requiring initiation will be increased from 3 to 5.
"This is something we cannot agree with," Polish Climate Minister Anna Moskwa said strongly against on Monday the provision giving the EU enforcement powers. "And it's not just us. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Malta also oppose such a solution, and other countries dispute specific provisions of the document. ”
However, as mentioned earlier, there is no current agreement between countries on their actual gas reduction targets. According to Reuters analysis, the proposal could eventually retain the voluntary goal of curbing gas use in all countries, and then provide a series of exemptions for binding targets. This means that countries will actually face different mandatory objectives. Countries with large stocks of natural gas may face lower targets, as may countries that export gas to other countries, such as Spain.
However, the proposal is still under negotiation, and the EU plans to promote the energy ministers of member states to reach an agreement on the matter on the 26th.
It is worth noting that the proposal also needs the support of most countries to make its gas restrictions binding. The european commission was initially responsible for the planning of the proposal, but was opposed by countries such as France, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland.
Poland is still strongly opposed to the proposal, with Polish Climate Minister Moskova calling the EU's idea of restricting the use of natural gas in all countries "completely contrary to the idea of energy security and democracy.".
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.