Last week, U.S. stocks rose across the board, with the Nasdaq up 3.33%, the S&P 500 up 2.55% and the Dow up 1.95%. Looking ahead to this week, an even bigger test in the U.S. stock market will follow: According to FactSet, more than a third of the S&P 500 constituents — 175 companies plan to report results this week. From Tuesday to Thursday, Microsoft, Google (Alphabet), META platform, Apple, and Amazon will release financial reports.
The Fed will hold its July rate meeting in the early hours of Thursday, or raise it aggressively by 75 basis points again to raise the federal funds rate cap to 2.5 percent from the current 1.75 percent. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), the market expects an 80% probability of a 75 basis point hike in July and a 20% probability of a 100 basis point hike.
According to a comprehensive Xinhua news agency and CCTV news report, on July 24, the Russian Defense Ministry said that the Russian military had struck at military targets in Odessa, donetsk region and other places. The Ukrainian side said that the Russian army shelled in multiple directions.
The Russian army attacked Ukrainian military targets in Odessa and other places
Ukrainians shelled in multiple directions
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov reported on the 24th that the Russian military used high-precision long-range sea-based and air-based weapons to strike the Ukrainian Air Force equipment in an airport in Kirovograd. The Russians also attacked a Ukrainian warship in the port of Odessa, a warehouse containing Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by the United States, and destroyed production facilities for repairs and modifications of Ukrainian naval vessels. The Russians also used high-precision weapons to strike the Ukrainian armed forces and ammunition depots in the city of Nikolaev. In addition, the Russian air defense forces have also shot down a number of Ukrainian drones in the Kharkiv region and other places, and also intercepted a number of rockets fired by hurricanes and the "Haimas" multiple rocket launcher system in the Donetsk region and other places. The Russian army also attacked Ukrainian command posts, ammunition depots, fuel depots and other military targets in the Donetsk region and other places.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said on the 24th that the Russian army shelled in the direction of Kharkiv, the direction of Slavyansk, the direction of Kramaturovsk, the direction of Bakhmout, etc., and also launched air strikes in the direction of Kharkov and Bakhmut. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also said that in the direction of Kramatorsk, the Ukrainian army repelled the Russian attack in many places, and the Russian army suffered losses and retreated.
Zelenskiy: Ukraine will be on July 28
National Day of Ukraine is celebrated for the first time
On the 24th local time, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in a routine video speech that Ukraine will celebrate Ukraine National Day for the first time on July 28.
Previously, Ukraine used August 24 every year as a national day to commemorate the declaration of independence adopted by Ukraine on August 24, 1991. Based on the decree signed in May 2022, Zelens designated July 28 as The National Day of Ukraine. Zelenskiy explained at the time that the year Kiev was built was the starting point for The founding of Ukraine, and that the festival would be celebrated on July 28, the "Day of the Baptism of Rus'", to highlight Ukraine's long history.
In the video, Zelenskiy also stressed that there will be important visits from partners next week, important negotiations will be held to advance Ukraine's position diplomatically and economically.
The Russian Foreign Minister visits the headquarters of the Arab League
On the afternoon of July 24, local time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov visited the headquarters of the League of Arab States in Cairo during his visit to Egypt and held talks with Arab League Secretary-General Gheit.
In his speech at the headquarters of the Arab League, Lavrov praised the moderate position of the Arab countries on the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Lavrov said that Russian-Afghan relations are based on friendship, and Russia is open to dialogue with the Arab world and other countries. He pointed out that NATO countries should not maintain their own security by threatening the security of other countries. The EU failed to meet its commitments when the new Minsk agreement was undermined.
Speaking of the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports signed by Russia and Ukraine with Turkey and the United Nations on the 22nd of this month, Lavrov said that the Russian army ensures the smooth passage of grain transport vessels through the Black Sea, and he urges the Ukrainian side to clear the mines it has laid in the waters of the Black Sea port to ensure the safety of food export channels.
YELLEN: I don't see any signs of a full-blown U.S. recession
The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points in June, its sharpest since 1994. The market now expects Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues to approve another 75 basis point rate hike this week. They are also expected to hint at continued rate hikes in the coming months. Powell has said it would be a "bigger mistake" not to restore price stability than to plunge the U.S. into recession, while he went on to insist that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could avoid a U.S. recession.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the Fed's fight against inflation and said it saw no signs of a full-blown U.S. recession. Yellen felt that even if the U.S. contracted for two consecutive quarters, scholars at the National Institute of Economic Research (NBER) would not declare a recession. "Our labor market is very strong. When you create nearly 400,000 jobs a month, it's not a recession. Yellen said inflation was "too high," while also reiterating the Biden administration's view that inflation is also high in many other advanced economies. "The Fed is responsible for setting policies that will depress inflation ... I expect them to succeed. ”
Former Treasury Secretary Summers: The Fed needs to take
Strong action to curb inflation
Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. Treasury secretary, said Fed officials needed to stay the course and "take strong action" to quell inflation that proved to be consistently at a four-year high. While Summers said he was "encouraged" by the Fed's commitment to lower inflation, he cast doubt on the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, calling it "unlikely."
Goldman Sachs Forward Fed Interest Rate Decision:
Rate hikes of 75 basis points are expected
Goldman Sachs economists believe that when the Fed decides on interest rates this week, it will not "fire up" to fight inflation. Chief economist Jan Hatzius said inflation expectations had softened and gasoline prices had fallen, so the FOMC was not expected to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes in the near future, and would only raise rates by 75 basis points at the July meeting. If the 100 basis points of this rate hike and the remaining 3 meetings of the year reduce the rate hike, the effect is not much different from the 75 basis points of the rate hike and the additional points of the remaining 3 meetings of the year.
Nomura: The second half of the global economy
A sharp decline is likely
Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura Securities China, said that due to high inflation, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the tightening of monetary policy, the global economy may decline sharply in the second half of this year. He expects the U.S. economy to enter a recession in the fourth quarter of this year, and the European economy may enter a recession in the third quarter of this year. Developed economies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia are also likely to experience recessions.
Chief Economist of Saxo:
Crude oil could rush another $120
Jacobson, chief economist at Saxo Bank, believes that the global economy is slowing down, but recession concerns are being priced a bit too much, commodities are starting to have fundamental value, and the risk of a European energy crisis cannot be ignored. He expects international oil prices to peak at $110-120 in the third quarter. In fact, the design and execution of the price capping program is terrible. The key to resolving oil prices should be to focus on getting more supply, not restricting free markets.
Wildfires in California continue
Nearly 57 square kilometres of land have been burned
According to media reports on July 24, California Fire Department officials said that wildfires in Mariposa County in central California have been burning for three days, burning nearly 57 square kilometers of land and forcing thousands of people to evacuate.
Local fire station officials said that as of the morning of the 24th, the fire control rate was 0%. The California Governor's Office announced on the 23rd that Mariposa County had entered a state of emergency.
The California Forestry and Fire Department said on the 23rd that the fire has destroyed at least 10 buildings and damaged 5 buildings, and more than 400 people and 45 fire trucks have been sent to extinguish the fire.
The Sakurajima Volcano erupted in Japan
The Meteorological Agency issued the highest level of alert
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, a large-scale eruption occurred on the evening of the 24th at Sakurajima Volcano in Kagoshima Prefecture, Kyushu Region, Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued the highest level of warning and asked the surrounding people to take emergency shelter.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said that at about 20:05 local time on the 24th, an eruption occurred in the crater of the summit of Nangatake on Sakurajima Island, and the smoke and dust blew eastward due to the wind. Volcanic debris from the eruption flowed 2.5 km away.
The Meteorological Agency said that since the 18th, Sakurajima has observed subtle changes in the earth's crust, indicating that the mountain is expanding. From the 23rd to the 24th at 3 p.m., there were four eruptions in the crater of Nanyue Mountain, and the eruption of smoke and dust reached a maximum of 1200 meters.
According to the Kagoshima City Fire Department, no casualties have been received at this time.
Sakurajima is an active volcanic island located in Kagoshima Bay in southern Kyushu, Japan, with an area of 77 square kilometers.
Editor: Zhang Nan, Wang Yin
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