Sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high in June, and whether this high growth can be continued in July has attracted market attention. According to the data recently released by the Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Car Association"), the preliminary estimate is that the narrow passenger car retail market in July was about 1.770 million units, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles were about 450,000 units, an increase of 102.5% year-on-year.
Combined with historical data, the new energy market retailed 531,000 units in June, an increase of 130.6% year-on-year and 47.8% month-on-month. In contrast, new energy retail sales fell by about 15% month-on-month in July. "The effect of the car purchase tax halving policy was more prominent in June in the early stage of the policy launch, and then entered the middle of the stable implementation of the policy." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that because the effect of the policy to boost consumer confidence is still very good, the retail sales of the automobile market are still high year-on-year.
July or achieve "low season is not light"
With the release of post-epidemic replenishment demand, the superimposed purchase tax reduction policy, local time limit subsidies and semi-annual enterprise impulses, the automobile market has rebounded strongly.
According to the data, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in june were 1.944 million units, an increase of 22.7% year-on-year and 43.5% month-on-month, and the retail sales growth rate in June was at the highest level in the same period of the past six years. New energy manufacturers also exceeded expectations, with retail sales of 531,000 units in the new energy market in June, up 130.6% year-on-year, up 47.8% month-on-month, and the penetration rate reached 27.3%.
"In July, the national epidemic situation was generally stable, the supply chain and vehicle production were operating normally, and the situation of short supply and demand improved. After the expiration of local consumption policies at the end of June, there are many extensions or the introduction of a second round of subsidies, which continues to form support for the automobile market, and the market heat is not reduced. The Association pointed out that the overall market discount rate of passenger cars in mid-July was about 13.7%, and the overall price remained stable from the previous month (13.7%).
Under the pressure of the annual task, manufacturers continue to exert efforts, according to the July retail target survey, accounting for about 80% of the overall market manufacturers increased by about 80% year-on-year to double digits, the initial estimate of this month's narrow passenger car retail market at about 1.770 million units, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year, new energy retail sales at about 450,000 vehicles, an increase of 102.5%.
"The first half of July is the beginning of the second half of the year, because June is the first half of the year, dealers are also trying to achieve strong performance, coupled with the local government's partial support for consumption policies at the end of June, so the market performance in early July is relatively average." Cui Dongshu believes that superimposed on the market off-season in July, the year-on-year growth rate in July is slower than in June, the market is slightly weaker in early July, and it will be better at the end of the period.
The utilization rate of new energy capacity recovered rapidly
Specific to each week, the main manufacturers retail the first and second weeks of the average daily year-on-year 16%, 16%, respectively, with the continuation of local consumption policies, the car market gradually improved. The association expects the market to climb steadily in the third week, about 19% year-on-year, and enter the month-end impulse stage in the fourth week, considering the low base affected by chip shortages in the same period last year, and it is expected that the average daily retail sales will reach about 17% year-on-year. It is estimated that retail sales in July will reach 1.770 million units.
According to the survey results of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers at the end of June was 1.36, down 20.9% from the previous month, and the overall sales volume of terminal stores was good. Since a large number of consumer demand has been rapidly released in June, the purchase tax halving policy in July has slightly weaker support for the overall car market than in June, and the Association expects that in the short term, the urgency of consumers just needing to buy a car will decline, and the car purchase group at a medium and high price point with increased purchase demand will become the main force to promote the car market.
In terms of policy, the Ministry of Commerce and 17 other departments recently issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Invigorate Automobile Circulation and Expand Automobile Consumption", aiming to further release the potential of automobile consumption. Previously, in the "Package of Policies and Measures to Solidly Stabilize the Economy" issued by the State Council, it was also mentioned to steadily increase bulk consumption such as automobiles and optimize the investment and construction operation mode of new energy vehicle charging piles (stations). In addition, after the expiration of some local stimulus policies at the end of June, some provinces and cities such as Shandong continued the original new purchase subsidy policy, and Guangxi, Guangzhou, Hefei and other provinces and cities successively introduced the second wave of subsidy policies, which constituted a stable support for the regional car market.
The rapid recovery of new energy capacity utilization rate is also a major driving force for the growth of the automobile market. Cui Dongshu believes that from the supply side, the supply in July will basically return to normal, Shanghai is in the core hub of national automobile manufacturing, the yangtze river delta in early July the impact of the epidemic is not large, combined with the previous epidemic auto industry supply experience accumulation, the national automobile production capacity is expected to be fully released.
The Association said that Manufacturers such as Weilai, Tesla, and GAC Aean will further increase their production capacity and expect to achieve capacity climbing in the second half of the year. In addition to the improvement of supply, the consumer acceptance of new energy products has gradually increased, and it is expected that the new energy market will continue to grow before the subsidy declines at the end of the year.
The agency gave a forecast for the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year
The two booms in production and marketing have directly driven the ownership of new energy vehicles. According to data released by the Ministry of Public Security on July 6, as of the end of June 2022, the number of new energy vehicles in the country reached 10.01 million, accounting for 3.23% of the total number of vehicles. According to the latest statistics, 2.209 million new energy vehicles were newly registered in the first half of this year, an increase of 1.106 million units compared with the first half of last year, an increase of 100.26%, a record high.
For the new energy vehicle market throughout this year, some institutions have also given a prejudgment. According to the comprehensive judgment of the automobile market for the whole year, the China Automobile Association expects that China's automobile sales are expected to reach 27 million units in 2022, an increase of about 3% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car sales are expected to be 23 million units, an increase of about 7% year-on-year; Commercial vehicle sales are expected to be 4 million units, down about 16% year-on-year. China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 5.5 million units in 2022, an increase of more than 56% year-on-year.
CITIC Securities pointed out that in June, automobile production and sales returned to growth year-on-year, and the domestic automotive industry continued to show a recovery trend, due to the purchase tax and other policy stimulus and the recovery of the main engine factory and supply chain under the improvement of the epidemic, it is expected that the production and sales of automobiles in July and September will most likely maintain double-digit growth year-on-year.
According to the analysis of THE RESEARCH REPORT OF CICC, the sales of new energy vehicles have resumed growth, and the global new energy vehicles have entered the recovery channel. Under the background of policy support, new model product force, and supply elastic release, based on neutral forecasts, global new energy vehicle sales are expected to be about 9.431 million units in 2022, an increase of 41.8% year-on-year.