The only constant in the world is the "change" itself.
On the afternoon of the 22nd local time, in Istanbul, the capital of Turkey, the four forces gathered together. In addition to the "host" Turkish President Erdogan, there were also UN Secretary-General Guterres, as well as representatives of Russia and Ukraine.
Of course, the heads of delegations of Russia and Ukraine are also "heavyweights", namely Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Kubrakov.
This is perhaps the first time since the fifth round of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks reached an impasse in April that the top brass of Russia and Ukraine sat at the same negotiating table and signed an "unprecedented" agreement together.
So, what kind of agreement is this?
According to Shoigu, on the same day, the two sides signed two agreements to alleviate the "food crisis" in the presence of the SECRETARy-General of the United Nations and the President of Turkey, one is that the United Nations will use its good offices to lift the restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products, and the other is to stipulate the rules for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products from Black Sea ports.
After the agreement is reached, if Russia and Ukraine are seriously implemented, then Russia and Ukraine, as the world's largest exporters of wheat and corn, will effectively curb the sharp rise in food prices and fill the stomachs of millions of hungry people without being obstructed by Europe and the United States.
Because of this, Guterres excitedly said: "Today, a beacon of hope appears on the Black Sea."
However, even though Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is "pleased" with this, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy claims that "the relevant agreement is completely in the interests of the Ukrainian side", US Secretary of State Blinken welcomes the agreement, and Turkish President Erdogan also holds a positive view, but the details on the negotiating field invariably show that you are happy too soon!
First, at the signing ceremony of the agreement, several flags placed behind the negotiating table were placed in a "mysterious" order.
From left to right, there are three groups of Turkish flags, Russian flags, United Nations flags and Ukrainian flags, in this order. In this way, the flags of Russia and Ukraine will not be closely separated, and they will be separated by the Turkish flag and the United Nations flag.
Obviously, the Turkish side in charge of the deployment ceremony site is very clear, and all parties seem to have reached a consensus, but Russian-Ukrainian relations are still tense, and the time has not yet come for the two national flags to be placed together.
Second, unlike the regular signing ceremony of the agreement, Russia and Ukraine, as the main signatories of the agreement, did not sit with Guterres and Erdogan, who witnessed the agreement.
Photographs from the scene show a long strip of table covered with white cloth, with Guterres and Erdogan sitting in the center, while Russian-Ukrainian representatives sit at opposite ends of the table, facing each other but far apart.
It is not difficult to see that the atmosphere at the scene is really not "friendly," the hostility between Russia and Ukraine still exists, and whether the agreement can be smoothly implemented has become a new problem.
Third, although the Turkish side previously predicted that after more than a month of negotiations, a "quadripartite agreement" would be signed on the 22nd, but only two "tripartite agreements" were finally signed.
According to a deputy spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, Ukraine has only signed agreements with Turkey and the United Nations, and its officials claim that they "do not want to put their names on the same documents as Russia", and the Russian side can only do so.
Sure enough, while Guterres saw the signing of the agreement as the most important achievement of his entire tenure as secretary-general of the United Nations, he apparently did not expect Ukraine to "step down" russia.
Podoriak, assistant to the director of the office of the President of Ukraine, said at the first time after the signing of the agreement that Russian ships will not be allowed to escort the grain carriers, and there will be no Russian representatives in Ukrainian ports. ”
In other words, ukraine will not be involved in the series of processes from port loading to grain carriers leaving the Black Sea. Even if the Ukrainian side defaults, it will not be responsible to the Russian side and will only have obligations to Turkey and the United Nations.
If there is no Russian representative in the Ukrainian port, then the Russian side will not be able to inspect the ships, and there may be loopholes in the transportation of arms in the process, after all, the Russian side cannot fully trust the United Nations and Turkish officials.
Moreover, the Ukrainian side has always claimed that the Russian army has blockaded the Ukrainian port, and the Russian side has always accused the Ukrainian army of deploying a large number of mines in the Black Sea port. There is no answer to how to ensure that the Ukrainian side removes the mines, and how to ensure that the Russian army will not blockade the sea area of Southern Ukraine again when the war requires it.
There are indications that there are many natural difficulties in the implementation of this agreement. As the Western media put it, "one explosion at sea could undermine the entire agreement."
Against this background, on July 23, local time, the day after the signing of the agreement, the Ukrainian Southern Combat Command issued a message saying that the Russian military fired four missiles at the port of Odessa that day, two of which hit the port with "caliber" cruise missiles, and the other two missiles were shot down by the air defense system.
It should be noted that Odessa, Chernomosk and Yuzhny are the three Ukrainian ports clearly stipulated in the export agreement of the "Black Sea Corridor" of Russian-Ukrainian farm products, and if the Ukrainian news is true, then the Russian side will inevitably be labeled as "obstructing the implementation of the agreement".
In this regard, it is necessary to talk about 3 points.
First, the "unfriendly" behavior of the Kiev side before the Russian missile attack probably angered Moscow. For example, Zelenskiy and Podoriak said on the 22nd that they did not intend to resume negotiations with the Russian side at present.
In the eyes of the Russian side, this means that the Zelenskiy government still chooses to follow the "dispatch" of the United States and the West. Coupled with the fact that the Ukrainian side refused to sign the "Quadripartite Agreement" and instead engaged in the trick of the "Mirror Agreement", this also reduced the psychological pressure of the Russian side to attack the port of Odessa.
Second, after the Russian army launched the attack, the Ukrainian side did not stop implementing the agreement, but claimed that it would start shipping the first shipment tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, which shows that Kiev actually attaches great importance to the agreement, and the interests of grain exports make the Zelensky government dare not "be angry".
In view of this, it is not so much that the Ukrainian side has previously "threatened" Russia with words, but rather that the Russian side is "beating" Ukraine with practical actions.
Third, there is no doubt that the United States and the West, while supporting this agreement, also want to take advantage of it. For example, Meifang claimed to make Russia "responsible for implementing the agreement and for shipping Ukrainian grain to the world."
Therefore, the relevant parties should not take it lightly, and the United States and the West will certainly "do things" in the process of implementing the agreement, incite further antagonism between Russia and Ukraine, and even use this to "stir up trouble" during possible future peace negotiations.
But in any case, this agreement is an important step towards peace between Russia and Ukraine, and even if this step is trembling and not firm enough, as long as it persists, it will be able to accumulate conditions for the early realization of peace.