The Russian-Ukrainian conflict came to the 148th day. On the eve of the war's turn in May, Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to the Iranian capital Tehran for a visit to a country other than a former Soviet union since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Erdogan and Putin met in Iran
Putin's agenda for this visit to Iran is mainly threefold: meeting with Iran's supreme spiritual leader Khamenei and President Lehi, meeting with Turkish President Erdogan, and then attending the Trilateral Summit in Astana aimed at resolving the Syrian issue with Erdogan and Iranian President Lehi.
Putin and Khamenei mainly discussed bilateral relations between Russia and Iran. During the meeting, Khamenei reiterated Iran's position of support for Russia. Khamenei said Iran does not want to see any war, but Iran also understands Russia's situation very well, if Russia does not preemptively attack, NATO will have to go far and burn the war to Russia, so Russia must stop NATO in Ukraine.
On Syria, Khamenei has made it clear that he opposes military action against Syria. In the field of Bilateral Relations between Russia and Iran, Khamenei expressed his desire to further strengthen cooperation with Russia in the field of energy, and he also hoped to elevate Russian-Iranian relations to a new height. According to a statement posted on the Iranian president's website, the Russian-Iranian leaders did not discuss the previous rumors of Russia's procurement of Iranian drones.
Putin, Lech and Erdogan at the opening ceremony of the Russia-Turkey-Iraq Trilateral Summit in Tehran
Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan mainly discussed Ukraine's food exports, the global food crisis, the Syrian issue, the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and other issues. According to the statement after the meeting, the meeting did not reach a substantive outcome, but Turkey has agreed to mediate on the issue of Ukrainian grain exports and clear the obstacles to Ukraine's grain exports through the Black Sea as soon as possible.
At the subsequent Russia-Turkey-Iraq trilateral summit, Putin, Erdogan and Lehi exchanged views on the current Syrian issue and discussed issues such as Kurdish armed forces. According to a joint statement after the meeting, Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed to strengthen trilateral cooperation to continue the fight against extremist terrorism in Syria.
Turkish Defense Minister Hurus Akar accompanied President Erdogan on a visit to Iran
Putin's trip to Tehran is not over, but for Russia, the trip has been a success.
First, Putin's visit to the Middle East in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war is a success in itself. After Russia launched a special military operation on February 24 this year, the West imposed all-round sanctions on Russia, Europe, the United States and pro-Western countries banned Russian government planes from passing through their airspace, and Lavrov was forced to cancel Serbia's execution because Bulgaria and other countries refused to open their airspace, and Russia's foreign affairs activities were heavily blocked.
Putin also visited Tajikistan and Turkmenistan last month, but both are members of the former Soviet Union and are more like neighbors to Putin. Putin's successful visit to Iran and the addition of NATO member Turkey have broken the so-called "diplomatic blockade" of the West, and the facts have proved that Russia has not been completely isolated, Ukraine has the support of many Western countries, and Russia does not lack allies.
Putin's successful visit to Iran shows that Russia is not completely isolated
Second, Putin's current visit to Iran solves urgent problems. Ukrainian grain exports, the situation in Syria, and the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh are all closely related to Russia. In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the above issues are even more urgent, if Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh have another problem at this juncture, then Russia may have to deal with it separately, and this will undoubtedly affect Russia's strategic decision-making on the Battlefield in Ukraine.
Therefore, Putin very much needs to deal with these problems outside the battlefield when the Russo-Ukrainian war enters the stage of continuous attrition, and then concentrates on the Russian-Ukrainian war, or the confrontation with the West.
U.S. President Joe Biden just finished his trip to the Middle East last week
Third, Putin's current trip to the Middle East will help consolidate Russia's influence in the Middle East in previous years. Before Putin's visit to Iran, U.S. President Joe Biden had just concluded his trip to the Middle East, which was visited by Saudi Arabia and Israel.
In Tel Aviv, Israel, Biden has publicly expressed concerns about Russia's quest to fill the power vacuum in the Middle East, which Biden claims must not be allowed to happen. Then Biden left Saudi Arabia and Israel on the front foot, Putin went to Iran on the back foot, Iran, Syria and a Turkey riding the wall, which is enough for Russia.
▲ German PZH-2000 self-propelled gun provided to Ukraine in the Ukrainian combat footage
Outside the battlefield, Putin has achieved a "breakthrough" in the diplomatic field, and Russia has continued to make steady progress on the battlefield. After swallowing Luhansk, the pace of Russian advances has slowed down a lot, and there are signs that the fighting in Donetsk Oblast may continue until this winter, so the Russian coalition seems to be in no hurry to eat the remaining 40% of Donetsk in one go.
At present, the Russian army has not only launched a new round of military offensive in Donetsk, but also carried out high-intensity shelling and air raids in Kharkiv, Nikolaev and Odessa. The tactical thinking of the Russian army is now relatively clear, that is, to eliminate the active forces of Ukraine before a large-scale ground war will be carried out. Although the Russian army swallowed Luhansk, but also paid a considerable price, the Russian army will inevitably summarize the way of play, optimize tactics, reduce casualties.
▲ The overall situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian army has not made significant progress on the battlefield recently
On the other hand, after Ukraine was knocked out of several command centers and lost strategic positions such as Lisichansk, foreign aid outside the battlefield seemed to be somewhat unstoppable. After three or four months of continuous support for Ukraine, Germany took the lead in speaking out.
German Defense Minister Christina Lambrecht recently said that the military resources of the federal armed forces to aid Ukraine are about to run out, and Germany may not be able to continue to provide more weapons and equipment to Ukraine. In early July, the German Defense Minister publicly stated that it would not be possible to supply Ukraine with "Fox" armored vehicles, and it would be useless to support the Ukrainian Bundeswehr itself.
In addition to Germany, support from the United States and Britain was also weak. There are huge problems within the UK, Johnson has resigned and stayed in office, and for the US, the US is now under great domestic inflationary pressures. Coupled with the fact that Biden's visit to the Middle East did not achieve the desired results, there may be a rest period for external support facing Ukraine.
The EU is now busy searching the world for gas and oil, preparing for autumn and winter, and it is conceivable that in the next time, the EU will not have much energy to sanction Russia, after all, this kind of reaction will have too much impact on the EU. Whether from the energy side or the impact side, the EU is in a relatively awkward time period.
Energy wants to get rid of Russia, but it has to pay a huge price, Putin also issued the latest statement, if the turbines can not be delivered in time, then Russia's natural gas to Germany will be further reduced, which is obviously not a good news for Germany. Sanctioning Russia is more like cutting the EU.