#Russia-Ukraine conflict##Turkey ##库尔德 #
Text/Junjian
At the time of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, the United States and Russia are all around the Middle East to play a game, Biden went to the Middle East one step ahead, in order to win over the Middle East countries to suppress Iran and deal with Russia, but there was no result, Biden returned home; Immediately after, Putin also rushed to the Middle East, this time Putin's goal seems to be to "put out the fire", because just as Russia and Ukraine are fighting fiercely, another crisis in the Middle East is brewing - Turkey has threatened to "go to war".
(Russia,Turkish-Iraq will hold a tripartite summit soon)
According to media reports, just as Putin was visiting Iran in the Middle East, turkey released a message that the country may follow Russia's example and launch a "special military operation" in the Middle East. The news was personally revealed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who himself plans to participate in a trilateral summit in Iran with Putin, and Iranian President Lehi will discuss with Putin and Erdogan how to properly resolve the Syrian war. Russian analysts believe that both Russia and Iran oppose Turkey's launch of a "special military operation", but Erdogan wants to persuade Putin and Lech to allow him to carry out the plan.
(Erdogan arrives in Tehran)
In fact, Turkey has not launched a "special military operation" in the Middle East, in order to combat the Kurds, Turkey launched the "Fountain of Peace" operation in 2019, when Turkey sent 80,000 troops across the border to attack the Kurdish armed forces in Syria, and the United States is the financial leader behind the Kurdish armed forces. Turkey's other armed forces in Syria also participated in the operation, when even the U.S. military was forced to back down, which was eventually quelled by Russia's mediation. Recently, Turkey announced the launch of the "claw lock" operation, which has crossed the line against the Kurds in Iraq and Syria.
(U.S.-backed Kurdish People's Protection Force)
If Turkey is fighting U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, why are both Russia and Iran now showing opposition to Turkey's "special military action"? This should still take into account the situation in Syria, after all, Russia and Iran are now allies of Syria, and the Assad government forces do not want to see Turkish troops enter Syria. After realizing that Turkey is brewing a large-scale military operation, Syria has deployed additional troops in the northern part of the country, which means that the risk of a frontal conflict between the Turkish and Syrian militaries has increased significantly.
(Meeting of the Astana Process aimed at resolving the Syrian crisis)
Neither Russia nor Iran clearly wants to see this fierce battle erupt, because while Turkey targets the Kurds, if it turns into a Turkish-Syrian war, Syria's gains in years of civil war will be weakened. Russia and Iran have interests in Syria, and even the United States has been stationed here for many years, and the United States continues to plunder the resources here. If the situation in Syria is once again in turmoil, it is actually the United States that is more likely to benefit.
(U.S. military occupies oil-producing grain-producing areas in northeastern Syria)
Therefore, Putin and Lech may hope to persuade Erdogan to let the Three Parties of Russia, Turkey and Iran continue to advance the Astana process and strive to solve the Syrian problem. But Turkey clearly has its own calculations, hoping to get the most benefits possible between the United States and Russia. Coupled with turkey's defense of the entrances and exits of the Black Sea, there are enough chips, and there is also a "precedent" for Russia's "special military operations", so although Putin personally intervened to mediate, it is still a question whether Erdogan will buy it.