Reporter | Liu Zixiang
Edit |
Stepping off the moral high ground, U.S. President Joe Biden has finally completed a four-day trip to the Middle East.
Seeking to increase oil production and pushing regional counterweights to Iran is the main purpose of Biden's trip. During this time, he met with the leaders of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, the Gulf States, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq.
After four days of visits, Biden handed over a list of results: no firm commitment from Saudi Arabia in terms of oil production increases; In balancing Iran, it has also failed to achieve the claimed establishment of a regional air defense network that shares technology and intelligence.
In promoting normal relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, the two countries signed an open airspace agreement. On the regional dispute, Saudi Arabia has promised to extend a ceasefire on the war in Yemen, and Israel and Saudi Arabia have agreed to withdraw multinational peacekeeping forces, including the United States, from Tilan Island, ending the decades-long dispute. Promote the further integration of Iraq into the Gulf Cooperation Council. At the level of commercial cooperation, the United States and Saudi Arabia cooperate to develop 5G and 6G. Israel, India, the United States and the United Arab Emirates signed cooperation agreements on cybersecurity, space exploration and public health.
However, the price is that after the picture of the Saudi crown prince touching the same frame became popular around the world, the personality of Biden's "human rights defender" was hit hard.
The visit was also seen as a vivid practice of values giving way to the national interest. The POLITICO article said Biden gave up the moral high ground, but may have received little in return.
Some analysts argue that the trade-off is not worth it. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that while Biden defended Ukraine's human rights democracy and confronted Russia, he seemed to enjoy meeting with Saudi leaders, who used the president's reputation for some gains, most of which were more favorable to the Saudis.
Bend your waist for oil
Against the backdrop of high domestic inflation and the global energy crisis, seeking the Middle East's largest oil country to increase production and increase global market share in order to hedge the energy shock of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is considered the primary purpose of Biden's visit. Public opinion before the trip looked forward to reaching a major agreement.
However, hopes were dashed, and Biden did not get clear assurances from Saudi Arabia. On the 16th, Crown Prince Mohammed said that Saudi Arabia "has the ability" to increase crude oil production by 1 million barrels to 13 million barrels per day, while stressing that production capacity has reached the top and cannot be added more, but may be "looking forward to what happens in the next few months".
Saudi Foreign Minister Al-Jubayr's statement was more cautious. After the talks, he told the media that any decision about oil would be based on fundamentals, not speculation, sentiment and geopolitics.
The analysis believes that Saudi Arabia's "looking forward to the next few weeks" may release plans to increase production at the OPEC+ meeting in August if it is not empty.
The New York Times quoted U.S. officials as saying that the two countries had privately reached an understanding that Saudi Arabia would agree to increase production at its Aug. 3 meeting. However, this does not solve the problem at hand, and the increase in production will not be adjusted until early autumn at the earliest, and when the impact is transmitted to the United States, any decline in gasoline prices will not appear until close to the November midterm elections.
Some analysts believe that Biden's sincerity in seeking oil on this trip is insufficient, and it is not surprising that Saudi Arabia does not increase production. Victoria Coates, a strategic research fellow at the U.S. Foreign Policy Council, wrote that at the meeting site, the Saudi crown prince brought with him the chief representative of OPEC, Abdel-Aziz, who is one of the most senior and influential figures in the global energy field.
However, the U.S. delegation chose The State Department's Special Envoy for International Energy Affairs, Horkstein, instead of U.S. Secretary of Energy Granhome. Horkstein's presence sends a clear signal to the Saudis that any discussion of energy will take place in the diplomatic realm.
Victoria Coates said Biden has refused to take substantive steps to maximize U.S. production, but wants Saudi Arabia to open the floodgates and release oil, so that Saudi Arabia can unilaterally bear the cost of low oil prices. Coupled with the "lack of sincerity" in the negotiations, Saudi Arabia can only understand this as a lack of rigor in responding to the global energy crisis. Therefore, it is "not surprising" that Saudi Arabia said after the meeting that it would not significantly increase production. She doesn't think oil will fall sharply in the coming weeks as a result of the visit.
Biden was initially resistant to the trip to the Middle East. It took national security adviser Sullivan and other officials months to convince him to make the trip. Even in the weeks leading up to the visit, Biden insisted he would not meet with Crown Prince Mohammed.
Because of the Khashoggi case, Biden said in the 2019 campaign that he would make Saudi Arabia a "untouchable country" and "pay the price". Since then, this position has been repeatedly emphasized. U.S. intelligence believes that the Saudi crown prince ordered Khashoggi's killing, which Saudis denied.
But last week, Biden had to forget what he had said. On July 15, Biden arrived in the Saudi city of Jeddah, greeted by a smile from the crown prince. The two touched their fists after meeting. This is both a social distancing greeting style during the COVID-19 era and a deliberate attempt to maintain a certain distance.
The bumping photo quickly spread in the global media and drew widespread criticism. On July 17, senior U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders criticized Biden for saying there should be no visit at all. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff said on Twitter that the moment Americans were intuitively reminded that U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East was controlled by the oil-rich "dictator" who "punched a thousand words."
Considering Biden's "relationship" with the Saudi crown prince, the Khashoggi case has always been an inescapable topic. Soon after the talks began, Biden took the initiative to mention it. Two people with knowledge of the inside story of the bilateral talks said Biden began a monologue after a cup of Arabic coffee, saying he had a responsibility to raise the issue on the occasion. However, he is not a strong position, more like a routine statement.
The crown prince responded that Khashoggi's case was a tragic mistake and that those responsible would be punished. He then responded by referring to the U.S. prison in Abu Ghraib in Iraq and the recent killing of Palestinian-American journalist Heerin Abu Akler.
The Bloomberg article said the summit was aimed at repairing relations while avoiding appearing too intimate or flattering to Biden. In this meeting, the goal of the United States is clear: to show that the United States is turning the page on the unpleasant past and avoiding anything that could endanger oil production.
The United States will not leave
In his July 16 speech, Biden said the United States and the Middle East are more closely intertwined as global competition intensifies and challenges become more complex. He declared that the United States would not leave the Middle East, leaving a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran. The United States will seek to build on its efforts with positive, principled leadership.
In his speech, Biden outlined a new framework for U.S. Policy in the Middle East, which consists mainly of strengthening rules-based partnership-country relations and promoting integration and interconnection among partner countries.
To ensure that partner countries are resilient to external threats and to work together to address global challenges. In terms of food security, the GCC countries unveiled new measures to deal with the food crisis in the Middle East, with the United States contributing $1 billion. In terms of promoting integrated interconnection between partner countries, Saudi Arabia and Iraq were promoted to sign a power interconnection agreement.
Biden's first stop on the trip was Israel, the staunchest ally. However, the trip to Israel was more like a "political task" and achieved little.
During the visit, the United States and Israel signed a joint statement emphasizing "unbreakable bonds" and the United States' enduring commitment to Israel's security. The U.S. would use all national forces to ensure that Iran could not acquire nuclear weapons and pledged to work with other partners to deal with Iran's "aggressive and destabilizing activities," the statement said.
Analysts, however, argue that the statement lacks substance. The Jerusalem Post said that Biden rejected Israel's request to set a deadline for Iran's return to the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the two sides have obvious differences.
The results that can be called important are basically related to Saudi Arabia. For example, biden's "big thing" is the open airspace agreement signed by Saudi Arabia and Israel. For the first time, saudi airspace was opened to all Israeli commercial flights.
On July 16, Biden told the media that it was a "big deal" and the first concrete step on the road to eventual normalization of broader relations.
Yet Saudi Arabia has bluntly pointed out that the signing of the agreement is only in its own national interest. Saudi Foreign Minister Al-Jubail told reporters that the opening of the airspace is not motivated by a desire to normalize relations with Israel, but by Saudi Arabia's ambition to become a hub for global innovation and major sporting events. This requires opening the door for all airlines.
Whether the United States wants to leave the Middle East or not, from this visit, Saudi Arabia seems to be the biggest winner.
Domestic oil prices have soared for months, pushing inflation soaring to 40-year highs. Since Biden announced his visit to Saudi Arabia in early June, the market has been looking forward to the visit, the price of crude oil has fallen by about 17%, brent crude oil has also fallen below $100 / barrel. However, after a four-day trip to the Middle East, on July 18, Brent crude oil returned to more than $100, up 2.6% to $103.88.