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Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

author:Observer.com

【Article/Observer Network Columnist Wang Shichun】

The more interesting military news this week is undoubtedly the US claim that Iran will provide drones to Russia. On July 11, U.S. President's national security adviser Sullivan said Iran would supply the Russian military with hundreds of drones of various types. Iran has trained Russian military-related technicians earlier this month, and the Russian military will use Iranian-made drones "as soon as this month".

For readers, Russia, which inherited the Arms Industry of the Soviet Era, should be the world's top three military powers, and even if Russia seeks "foreign aid", it should be the mainland, not Iran, which has been in blockade for a long time. But for observers who have long followed Russia and Iran's military industry, it is indeed not surprising that Russia has turned to Iran, because Russia's drone level has lagged behind Iran in some areas. After more than 30 years of development, Iran has the ability to use drones enough to change the current situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

In this issue, the author of the military review will introduce the development process of Iran's drones and help readers understand the current situation of Iran's drone industry.

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

Iranian foreign trade drone family portrait Source: social media

Iran's Islamic Armed Forces set out to build its own drone industry in the midst of the Iran-Iraq War. In 1985, iran's Revolutionary Guards integrated the industrial assets of the Iranian Aviation Industry Organization (AIO) during the Pahlavi dynasty, including a helicopter repair plant aided by the American Bell Company, to form the Quds Aviation Industry Company. Later that year, with the support of science and engineering talent at Isfahan Jihad University, Al-Quds Aviation Industries developed Iran's first drone, the Tallash-1, a conventional layout that uses compressed gas launches and parachute recovery for a slow 120 km target aircraft.

Then, also in 1985, the company developed the first practical drone of the Iranian armed forces, the Mohajer-1. "Migrator-1" is a small UAV of the two-tail brace configuration, weighing up to 50 kg, equipped with a camera in the lower part of the nose, the aircraft uses rocket catapult take-off and parachute recovery, and has a strong air-staying ability in the same level of UAVs.

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

After the end of the war, Iran's indigenously produced drones became a symbol of self-reliance for the Islamic regime in Iran, and the Iranian government continued to attach importance to the development of drones. Although Iran is a Shiite theo-theocratic regime, it attaches great importance to science and engineering education. After the end of the Iran-Iraq War, Iran gradually improved its relations with some technologically developed countries, and a large number of Iranian students also learned a lot of relevant knowledge from overseas. Iran also established the Iranian Aerospace University after the war, and opened aviation and other related majors in various scientific research universities.

In addition to establishing an academic talent training system, the Iranian Al-Quds Aviation Industry Company and the Iranian Aircraft Manufacturing Company were integrated into the Aviation Industry Corporation (AIO), which was organized and further developed by the superiors while competing with each other. Aerospace investment in the 1990s became the academic and industrial basis for Iran's future drones.

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

Tallash-1 drone manufactured during the war Source: Official website of Iran's Revolutionary Guards

Under the attention of the Iranian government, Iran has established a relatively complete set of UAV aviation industry since the 1980s, Iran manufactures UAV science and engineering talents, supporting industrial processes are complete, and initially produces its own UAV equipment without relying on external forces. The advantage of this complete industrial category is that Iran's aerospace industry practitioners do not lack design capabilities and integration capabilities, and only need to make certain inputs in subsystems and design concepts to integrate UAV weapons that are suitable for their own national conditions and have relative system combat capabilities.

Iran's drone industry is not short of input, and the 30-year-long US conquest of the Middle East has given Iran direct access to the world's most advanced drones in the literal sense. During the security war in Iraq in 2004, Iranian proxies had direct access to the wreckage of the MQ-1 Predator drone that the U.S. military only entered service in 2001; In the confrontation between Lebanon and Israel, Allah forces captured the wreckage of some Israeli "Habi" suicide drones; In 2008, the British "Hermos" 450 UAV crashed in southern Iran during a secret reconnaissance mission; Subsequently, in 2011, Iran captured the RQ-170 UAV, which was the advanced flying wing configuration of the US military at that time, through electronic warfare, which became a hot topic in the international public opinion at that time. In addition, in 2018, Iran also captured a US military MQ-9 drone.

Long-term combat experience has helped Iran establish the direction of development of drones - while the Iranian side continues to develop advanced subsystems and improve the "Swallow" and "Explorer" series of UAVs, on the other hand, it has the idea of imitating UAVs.

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

In addition to the drones of the Western camp, in recent years, Iran's support for the Ansel Allah Movement (Houthi) in Yemen on the Red Sea front in Yemen has also helped Iran to gain access to drone technology from the eastern powers. Since 2015, coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been involved in clashes against the Allah movement in Yemen's Ansel Allah. With Iranian support, the Ansel Allah movement shot down the Rainbow-4, Rainbow-5, Pterodactyl-1 and Pterodactyl-2. Since the Ansel Allah armed forces partially control most of the wreckage, the Iranian side can take the opportunity to study the drone.

For Iran, there is an advantage to studying the UAVs of the Eastern countries - the UAVs of the Eastern countries, such as composite materials, optical pods, infrared thermal imaging, satellite control and other technologies are not only advanced, but most of them are licensed export products and are easily available from a political point of view. Even if Iran cannot directly obtain military-level related technologies due to sanctions, because the civilian components on the current world market are advanced enough, Iran can make partial trade-offs in technical indicators by improving civilian components and other ways to integrate advanced drones.

On the local improvement line, after entering the 90s, Iran's "Holy City" aviation industry continued to develop the "Migrator" series of unmanned aerial vehicles, deriving 2, 3, 4, 6 and other models. In addition, Iranian aircraft manufacturing companies have also developed "Swallow-3, 4, 5" and other models to compete with it. After the development of the "Migrator-6" Tsatta integrated UAV, Iran's local "two-tailed bracing" UAV team tried to create a drone similar to the "Predator" level, and the product of this route is the "Fotros" series of drones. Subsequently, on the basis of the "fallen angel", technological advances gave Iran the confidence to build a drone similar to the pterodactyl-1 level, which is the Iranian "Kaman" series of drones.

After more than 30 years of research and development, Iran has a full-process production line for the UAV industry. At present, Iran is the country in the Middle East with the most cha-ta integrated drones. Both the Iranian Defence Force system and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are equipped with Tsatta integrated drones. On May 28 this year, the Iranian military for the first time unveiled the newly built 313th underground unmanned aerial vehicle base, which was Iran's first underground combat facility for unmanned aerial vehicles, storing hundreds of large, medium and small Sanda integrated drones from the Iranian Air Force and Army. All the products mentioned above, including the "Migrator-6", "Swallow-5", "Fallen Angel", "Bow and Arrow-22" series of drones and other UAVs, have been included in the Iranian Defense Forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Forces.

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

Iran's "native line" final product "Migrator-6" UAV, its technical characteristics and Rainbow-3, TB-2 similar, can carry 4 20 kg precision strike ammunition, Iran can achieve full-process production

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

Although the Iranian aircraft manufacturing company "Swallow" UAV uses a purchased piston engine, it is more powerful and can carry 6 hellfire-like missiles

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

Iran's "Bow and Arrow-22" large UAV, which is larger than my "Pterodactyl-1" UAV, can carry the "Haidar" -1 air-launched ground attack cruise missile, this conventional configuration of the "Bow and Arrow-22" is Iran's most advanced drone

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

The "Fotros" series of unmanned aerial vehicles manufactured by iran's aircraft manufacturing industry have also entered service in batches after solving the problem of self-produced power systems, and are now also responsible for carrying air-to-ground missiles for long-range strikes

At a time when Iran is serving hundreds of Tatta integrated UAVs, the Russian military does not pay much attention to inspecting the UAVs. The Schath Integrated UAV is a new type of weapon that matured only after the end of the Cold War. In addition to some of the power systems of the UAV subsystems in China and the United States, which follow the "classic design" of the Cold War period, they are basically developed after the 1990s. However, compared with China and the United States, even if most of the Technology of the Soviet Union is inherited, the Russian aviation industry basically has no technical reserves in the Tchatha Integrated UAV. During the Soviet era, although the Soviet aviation industry was huge, due to the operational concept of the time, the Soviet aviation industry paid little attention to the development of low-power piston aero engines. Due to the lack of orders, the Russian aviation industry has not carried out the development of such engines in succession. Before the Russian-Georgian conflict in 2008, only a few companies in Russia relied on the factory's own resources and funds to engage in UAV research and development, and hoped to seek foreign trade to solve the problem of insufficient funds.

2008 was a "turning point" in the Russian military's attitude toward drones. In the 2008 Russo-Georgian conflict, the Russian army lacked various types of unmanned aerial vehicles, coupled with the retirement of a large number of Su-24 fleets, the Russian army as a whole lacked combat reconnaissance means, and even had to send out the Tu-22M3 to risk reconnaissance and suffered losses. The Georgian army has achieved certain results in the use of Israeli-made drones on the battlefield. Under the lessons of actual combat, the Russian army began to consider the development of various types of reconnaissance drones that the Russian army lacked.

At that time, Russia and some countries in the Western bloc were still on good terms, and there was a possibility of introducing a whole system of foreign armies. In 2010, Russia signed a contract with Israel to introduce a more "Searcher-MKII" to be assembled and produced by the Kazan Helicopter Factory, and this domestically produced version was named "Outpost". Two years later, the aircraft was localized by the Ural Civil Aviation Factory (UZGA), replacing the imported Israeli system with a subsystem developed by The Russian manufacturer, and installing the coding channel, target display, data transmission system, satellite navigation system, radio relay communication system, radio technology reconnaissance system and airborne radar and other equipment that the civilian version lacked, and finally the completely Russian localization version was named "Outpost-R", which was partially installed to the UAV unit of the Air and Space Force.

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?
Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

The Russian army equipped "outpost" unmanned aerial vehicles, served in the army's independent drone units, for combat in-depth reconnaissance

On the basis of the introduction of Israeli UAVs, the Russian military has developed a large number of small UAVs, including Pomegranate-1, Pomegranate-4, Faster-than-light Particles, Seahawk-10, and "Aileron" series UAVs. Most of these UAVs are installed in special operations brigades, UAV units directly under the Army, and UAVs with self-propelled artillery and long-range rocket artillery for battlefield observation, fire guidance, damage assessment, and so on. Although these UAVs are slow, low flight altitude, short lag time, and poor observation efficiency, they have more or less solved the problem of "presence or absence" and become the key weapons of Russia's artillery units today.

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

The "Seahawk-10" that fell in Turkey

Although a large number of reconnaissance drones have been installed, out of confidence in their own military theories, the Russian military has not re-inspected the development of integrated UAVs for a long time. Russia is the only country in the world today that retains a large number of strike aviation. Military theorists of the Russian military believe that contemporary long-range drones have shortcomings such as slow speed and poor survivability. Specific to the battlefield, the radar reflection area of the fast UAV is large, and the radar reflection area is small and slow, and it cannot be used flexibly like the strong strike aviation. If modern out-of-zone ammunition is to be used, the UAV's bomb load and drop altitude and speed are obviously inferior to modern attack aircraft such as the Su-34. Therefore, the Russian military purchased more than 100 Su-34 and other attack aircraft, but it was not until 2021 that it began to install 3 sets of "Orion" (the Russian military's own name "Walker") drones.

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

The Russian Su-34 either ultra-low altitude penetration, or can only use subsonic ammunition to strike as far as possible, both of which are difficult to eliminate deep artillery

But the current situation on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield broke the military theory of the Russian army. At present, the biggest enemy faced by the Russian army in the battlefield of eastern Ukraine is the modern artillery force of the Ukrainian side. The PZH-2000 self-propelled guns, the "Caesar" wheeled self-propelled guns and the "Haimas" long-range rocket launchers owned by the Ukrainian army can be withdrawn in less than 1 minute and returned to the hidden places outside the range of the Russian long-range artillery. Under such circumstances, the existing long-range artillery of the Russian army, and even rocket artillery such as ballistic missiles, are difficult to target. According to Russian military theory, such artillery should be countered by strong aviation and long-range artillery patrolling the rear of the enemy battlefield. But. The Russian military's strong strike aviation is easy to be detected by NATO long-range early warning aircraft because of its large radar cross-sectional area. Once nato's air-space early warning forces discover that Russia is dispatched by air and space, they will notify the small number of mobile artillery of the Ukrainian army to retreat and transfer their positions as soon as possible. This seriously restricted the efficiency of the Russian army's strikes.

The modern Sada integrated UAV metal components are small, the speed is slow, even if the large early warning aircraft owned by Europe and the United States, it is difficult to detect the direction of Wudong and it is difficult to detect remote detection. Therefore, for modern artillery with large range margins and strong ability to strike quickly and quickly withdraw, large-scale strike integrated UAVs with long empty space and large search radius are the most effective means of counterattack. However, Russia is currently extremely short of surveillance drones. Under the guidance of the military theory of the Russian army, of the 2,000 UAVs deployed by the Russian military, only 38 UAVs are TTVs. The Russian Ministry of Defense and the Kronstadt Group of Companies signed a contract to develop the "Orion" drones, and although the Russian Kronstadt claims to start "three shifts" to deliver 72 drones, the number of Sada-UAVs owned by the Russian military on the front line is far from meeting the demand.

Weekly military review: Can Iranian drones change the war situation in Eastern Ukraine?

The long-range artillery of the Ukrainian army that is mobile at night, it is difficult for the Russian army to counter this way of playing at the moment

After more than 30 years of Development in Iran, Iran has developed a number of models of Tsatta integrated UAVs, which have the ability to change the current Russian-Ukrainian war situation. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Ukrainian army has been trying to take advantage of the weaknesses of the Russian military such as integrated unmanned aerial vehicles and weak situational awareness. Drones like the "Carman-22" and "Fallen Angel" with long-term air lag and Satellite control do have the ability to make up for the shortcomings of the Russian army.

The current international geopolitics is complex, only from the current situation, the current Biden administration's Middle East policy continues the overall strategy of the United States to continue to "strategic contraction" from the Middle East, specific to action, the Biden administration further withdraws troops from the Middle East battlefield, shifting the us global strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific and Russia-Ukraine battlefields. At the same time, Biden continues to maintain a hostile policy toward Iran. The Biden administration has basically continued Trump's "maximum pressure" and other economic sanctions policies, but only verbally and diplomatically claimed to have "diplomatic contacts" with Iran. Under this foreign policy of "lip service but not truth", Iran has the motivation to take the initiative to change the status quo.

The changes in the international situation are also conducive to Iran's hype of the drone card. Iran is the only industrial country in the Middle East, and the advantage of an industrial country is that as long as there is a continuous subsystem input, it can continuously export weapons. Drones are a weapon that is very easy to assemble in the home country, and drone producing countries only need to smuggle some core subsystems with small weight - such as chips, optoelectronic equipment, navigation equipment, etc., to quickly assemble drones.

Iran is a master of this – with Iran's assistance, even the Ansel Allah movement in Yemen, which is surrounded by the sea, can create a large number of suicide drones and ballistic missiles against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in THE SEA sanctions of NATO. For NATO countries, in the past 20 years of extreme pressure, their optional policies against Iran and even North Korea are almost only left with the road of "armed blockade". In the current era of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, this option is almost impossible. Purely from the perspective of capability, it is entirely possible that Iran will "provide drones to Russia" as a "card" and earn benefits for itself in the fight to take the initiative.

As a Chinese, some of the achievements of Iran's defense industry do make me "empathetic". Although Iran has faced many internal and external problems, as a "latecomer" country, Iran's drone industry has indeed carried forward the subjective initiative and has reached a level that can change geopolitics. It can be seen that the benefits of "independence" are not necessarily only played out in China as a country.

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