The attitude toward NATO expansion has changed from calling for an "emergency stop" to saying "release" Turkey

【International Observation】

Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February this year, Turkey has been active on the international stage. Turkey not only refuses to participate in the sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia, but also actively mediates the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as a mediator. In this series of events, one of Turkey's most notable moves is the repeated attitude of Finland and Sweden on the issue of NATO.

After Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO in May, Turkey, as a NATO member, made it clear that it objected. In mid-May, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said publicly: "Any attempt to persuade Ankara to change its position will be in vain." "But by June 28, There had been a 180-degree shift in Attitudes in Turkey. After the leaders of Turkey, Sweden and Finland negotiated with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Madrid, Spain, Turkey expressed its agreement to sweden and Finland joining NATO.

"Look west", a handful of bitter tears

Turkey was originally firmly opposed to the two countries joining NATO, and then reversed its attitude, which seemed contradictory, but in fact it was "two sides of the same coin". Turkey's initial opposition, ostensibly on the grounds that Finland and Sweden support the Kurdish independence movement, but in fact there is both a vent of inner discontent and a rational calculation to be sold.

The so-called emotional catharsis is turkey taking the opportunity to vent its dissatisfaction with its inability to join the EU. Since the founding of the country, modern Turkey has established a foreign strategy of "looking west", not only moving closer to the West in economy and diplomacy, but also "completely westernizing" political and social customs and even dress. However, in the eyes of the Christian Western world, Turkey, which believes in Islam, has always been an outlier, so it has always had a pragmatic attitude toward Turkey that "uses it when it is compatible, and abandons it if it is not in harmony", and only regards Turkey as a strategic tool to achieve its own interests.

This is particularly evident in terms of security issues. Turkey guards the mouth of the Black Sea and is seen as holding the "key and gate to the Russian room." As early as 1953, shortly after the end of World War II, the Western countries pulled Turkey into NATO, seemingly to protect Turkey's security, but in fact pushed it to the front line of the West to contain the Soviet Union, which can be used as a shield at any time, and really protects the security of European and American countries. At the beginning of the Cold War, NATO troops used many places in Turkey as important naval bases, and also deployed advanced "Jupiter" missiles in Turkey, building Turkey into a strong anti-Soviet fortress. By the 1960s, due to private dealings between the United States and the Soviet Union, the United States decided to withdraw jupiter missiles from Turkey, without taking into account Turkey's feelings.

As soon as the Cold War ended, Western countries began to blame Turkey. When the Gulf War broke out in 1991, Turkey became "useful" again because of its front-line position, and the Western powers were busy "encouraging" Turkey with a batch of obsolete old weapons. After the Gulf War, Turkey "depreciated" again, and Western countries began to investigate whether the old weapons were used to suppress the Kurds. The capricious attitude of the West toward Turkey fulfills an old Chinese adage: "The bird hides with its bow, and the rabbit cooks with a dead dog."

On the issue of joining the European Union, Turkey is even more "a bitter tear". As early as 1963, Turkey signed the agreement to create the European Union and was identified as a potential member, but it was not until 1999 that it was not eligible for membership. Turkey's accession talks began in 2005, but when they will end is far from reaching. In contrast, Central and Eastern European countries and even many former Socialist countries in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are in a better situation than Turkey. In 2002, 10 countries, including Malta, Cyprus, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, joined the European Union at the same time. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict this year, European and American countries fully assisted Ukraine and started the fast track for Ukraine to join NATO and the European Union. This practice makes Turkey even more difficult to let go and resentful.

"Look east", three hundred years of Turkish-Russian feud

Just as the so-called "no buying, no harm", the EU and Turkey are actually "buying and selling" relationship, which is good when it is profitable and bad when it is not profitable. The "double standards" and discriminatory practices of European countries have led to growing resentment in Turkey. The Turkish side believes that its contribution to NATO is obvious to all, but the West is extremely stingy and snobbish in returning Turkey. Previous polls showed that 65% of Turks do not believe Turkey will eventually join the European Union, and nearly half of the respondents feel that Turkey is not really part of the Western world. After Erdogan came to power in 2002, Turkey gradually shifted from "looking west" to "looking east". After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Turkey was at every turn against Western countries, and the refusal of Finland and Sweden to join NATO was a concrete embodiment of its dissatisfaction.

However, it must be noted that Turkey's refusal to join Finland and Sweden in NATO includes a calculation of interests to be sold at a price and to maximize its own interests. Turkey's refusal to join NATO can not only enhance its presence and voice in the Western world, but also objectively consolidate its friendly relations with Russia. From a historical point of view, Turkish-Russian relations can only be described as "hostile". In order to seize the southward sea, Tsarist Russia fought a centuries-long war with the Ottoman Turks at that time, and in the more than 300 years after the 17th century, there were 27 wars between the two sides, and one-third of the Turkish war victims died in the war against Russia. Turkey's rebirth from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire and the soviet overthrow of Tsar rule did not end Turkey's geopolitical nightmare. Before World War II was over, Turkey was at the forefront of the West's struggle with the Soviet Union. On October 11, 1944, Stalin raised policy issues concerning Turkey and the Black Sea Strait during negotiations with Churchill, and put forward requests for the re-amendment of the Montreux Convention (Management of Straits).

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia withdrew from the Middle East for a time, but the pace of returning to the Middle East has accelerated in recent years. In particular, in 2015, Russia sent troops to Syria, colliding head-on with Turkey, which is determined to "return to the Middle East". In November 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian warplane, and a hot war broke out between the two sides. But in the july 5, 2016 attempted coup d'état in Turkey, Erdogan was able to avoid it thanks to russian intelligence. After this, Turkey's attitude toward Russia reversed, and relations between the two sides became more and more warm. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey refused to stand on the side of the West to sanction Russia, and also actively mediated the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, openly saying "no" to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO, and returning a favor to Russia.

Face, inside, gain and loss geometry

For Turkey, however, opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO is not based on irreconcilable structural contradictions or deep hatred for each other. Turkey is essentially still waiting for the price to sell, "ripping the bamboo" against Western countries, as long as the "price code" is appropriate, the position can be changed. Turkey finally changed its position, the main reason is that its previous price codes were almost all accepted according to the order, Turkey can be said to have won both "face" and "Lizi".

First, Turkey's importance to the Western world is re-emerging. Since joining NATO requires the "unanimous consent" of NATO member states, if Turkey opposes it, it will be difficult to implement the idea of NATO's "northward expansion" and geopolitical encirclement of Russia. To this end, European and American leaders have lobbied one after another, the leaders of Sweden and Finland have personally gone to Turkey to persuade them, and the secretary-general of NATO has actively brokered. Turkey became a leading role in Western diplomacy for a time. For Turkey, its security and development are inseparable from the Western world, and there is no need to completely offend the West by opposing Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Therefore, Turkey's acceptance of good and timely change of position will help to strengthen its relations with the Western world and enhance its influence in the West.

Second, Turkey's security concerns have been greatly satisfied. On the domestic issue, the biggest headache for Turkey is the Kurdish issue. Kurds make up one-fifth of Turkey's population, Kurdish independence has always been a thorny problem for the Turkish government, and Nordic countries such as Sweden are important overseas gathering places for Kurds. In the memorandum finally reached by the three parties on June 28, Finland and Sweden made it clear that they had fully cooperated with the Turkish government on the Kurdish issue in various aspects, meeting Turkey's core requirements. Finland and Sweden also agreed to lift restrictions on the export of defense equipment to Turkey. The United States also agreed to sell turkey the latest F-16 fighter jets. As a result, Turkey can not only renew its aging air force fleet, but also greatly reduce tensions with the United States.

Turkey's approach explains the Western diplomatic principle of "no permanent enemies, no permanent friends, only eternal interests". This approach seems to be beyond reproach, but it is inevitable that opportunism will leave people with the impression of "unreliable" and wary. What is the gain or loss, time will answer.

(Author: Lin Haihong, Associate Professor, School of Marxism, China University of Political Science and Law)