What is a middle power
In international relations, it is often assumed that global powers should play a leading role in negotiating deals and resolving crises. However, this traditional view ignores the important role of the middle powers in diplomacy.
In recent years, a group of medium-sized powers with strong comprehensive strength, greater international influence and key roles in regional affairs, relying on the international trend of the rise of emerging market countries, have increased their awareness of joint self-improvement and increased collective voices, increasingly becoming an important force affecting the global governance system, and embodying certain leadership roles in many global affairs. Although the strength of the middle power is inferior to that of the global power, its influence is still far greater than that of the average small and medium-sized country. They are reshaping international relations on issues of global governance such as regional security, nuclear proliferation, climate change and human rights.
A medium-sized power is a comprehensive concept that integrates economic strength, scale, international influence, and geostrategic position, and its status in the international system is second only to that of a global power. They are recognized as having the right to participate in the international system, especially in the region, and have a considerable degree of influence over the region and the international community. Its typical representatives are India, Brazil, South Africa, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico and other countries.
New momentum of the international order, a new field of competition among major powers
Hash Panter, a scholar at the India Observer Research Foundation, argues that the rise of middle powers demonstrates the strong capacity and willingness of these countries to influence the global agenda. This means that the evolution of the international order no longer depends solely on the capacity and willingness of the super-Powers to continue to provide global public goods, but also on the ability and willingness of the middle Powers to maintain and develop that order.
The middle powers have a strong desire to influence the new global order and shape international security, especially in the field of economic exchanges and global governance, including mediation, small-scale diplomacy, and multilateralism. The middle powers often borrow from each other to form functional cooperative alliances to expand their voices, such as Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey and Australia to form the mid-power cooperative "MIKTA" (taken from the initials of the names of the five countries).
A middle power may not have enough influence to challenge great power politics, but if its cooperation mechanisms complement the multilateral system and serve as a bridge between the economic or security interests of both powers, both powers will recognize its role and give it status.
In the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, Bruce Jones, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in the United States, wrote: "If the middle powers can translate their initial diplomatic efforts into a sustained response to the next phase of the pandemic, they may succeed in leading the world out of the crisis." ”
The intensification of Sino-US competition is prompting the middle powers to become a new field for the storm of great power competition. Relying on their overall strength, policy propositions and international influence, the middle power can not only affect the development of Sino-US competitive relations, but also affect the overall trend of the international situation, and then become an important factor affecting China's external environment. Under such circumstances, the middle powers may become "intermediaries" to buffer Sino-US competition, "balancers" for China to leverage diplomacy with the United States, or "promoters" to promote the trend of globalization and multipolarization.
South Korea, Australia, Indonesia and other medium-sized powers, on the one hand, are increasingly dependent on China economically, and on the other hand, they are more dependent on the United States in terms of security, and they are in the whirlpool of the Sino-US game, making the international pattern more complicated. The middle powers are often the focus of the geopolitical game, and every move affects the nerves of the great powers, and whichever side is biased will have a directing impact on the national and international environment. Some middle-class powers take advantage of the psychology of great power competition, skillfully maneuver and wait for prices, exert their unique "bargaining" ability, try to balance the relationship between the main players, win more benefits, and increase their own weight.
Do a good job in the diplomacy of medium-sized powers
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has placed increasing emphasis on the role of a middle power. Especially in the context of the intensification of the Sino-US game, the United States is bound to exert pressure on those middle powers with important influence, exacerbate the doubts of India, Australia, Japan and other countries about China, and strengthen cooperation platforms such as the Indo-Pacific Four-Nation Security Dialogue Mechanism.
Although Biden declared alliances and multilateral cooperation to be the top priority of his foreign policy, like his predecessor Trump, he only used multilateralism as a tool to exclude, isolate, and contain China, and to curb China's "unilateral" practice in the name of multilateralism. At the Group of Seven Western conference in June 2021, while hosted by the United Kingdom, the meeting, led by the United States, invited leaders from Australia, South Korea, India and South Africa. This fully demonstrates the importance and co-optation of the United States to the middle powers.
To gain the upper hand in Sino-US strategic competition, China cannot do without the coordination, support and cooperation of the middle powers. The middle powers are not monolithic, but a group of countries whose economic, political, and security interests vary widely, with some of them adopting a balanced diplomacy strategy between China and the United States, while others "one-sidedly" follow the pace of the United States.
- For the former, China should strengthen diplomatic ties, make good use of economic leverage, build and improve cooperation platforms, cultivate convergence points of interests, amplify cooperation effects, and actively build a community of interests, a community of ideas, and a community of destiny to prevent it from falling to the United States.
- For the latter, we should adhere to the balance between cooperation and struggle, not only to properly deal with negative factors, strive for economic cooperation and cultural integration, but also to maintain the bottom line, and carry out precision strikes against those countries and related parties that harm China's core interests, so as to set an example.
Excerpt from | Leadership Digest, July 2022
Source of the manuscript | "Half Moon Talk Internal Version"
This article is written by | David came
Responsible Editor | Eclipse moon
WeChat Editor | Young