On the 128th day of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the NATO summit also came to an end, and for Putin, it can be said that 3 bad news were ushered in.
First bad news: Turkey abandoned its position at the last minute
After the G7 summit, NATO held a two-day NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, and on Wednesday, a heavy news came out: NATO leaders officially invited Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Finland and Sweden were invited because Turkey no longer vetoed Finland and Sweden's membership in NATO at the last minute.
The reason is simple, Russia can not give Turkey much, while Finland and Sweden have complied with Turkey's demands, do not support the Kurds, and lift the ban on Turkey at the weapons level, in which the United States has also mediated for a long time. It seems that Turkey is indeed not a staunch ally of Russia.
NATO's agreement to Finland and Sweden joining NATO is really bad news for Russia.
If Finland and Sweden join NATO, they will have a big impact on this "special military operation" launched by Russia. The reason why Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine is to avoid letting Ukraine join NATO and choose neutrality.
If, in this context, Russia's neighbor Finland joins NATO despite Russia's warnings, it will be Russia's biggest embarrassment and will have a great impact on Russia.
(1), Russia's international image will suffer a serious crisis, to put it in layman's terms, Ukraine joined NATO you want to fight, Finland now joins NATO you do not fight, specifically pick soft persimmon pinch? The West is bound to crack down on Russia in terms of public opinion, and this is even difficult for Russia to refute.
(2) Finland, as a neighbor of Russia, has a long border between the two countries, although Finland said earlier that it would not let NATO establish a military base on its own soil, but it is one thing to say, and it is another thing to do it after it really joins NATO. In any case, Finland's accession to NATO would lead to a tension between Finland and Russia, and Russia would have to deploy more troops on the Finnish border to deter NATO.
(3) NATO's eastward expansion is solid, Russia's strategic space has once again been compressed, which is extremely unfavorable to Russia's future development, and NATO has once again turned a deaf ear to Russia's geopolitical demands, which will inevitably intensify the struggle between the two sides, which is also a kind of consumption for Russia.
Can Russia prevent Finland from joining NATO?
(1), Russia does not have much to do about Finland's accession to NATO, Russia cannot take military action against Finland, Finland's accession to NATO is Finland's own choice, after all, Russia has a special nature in the Ukraine issue. But if there is a war against Finland, its nature is completely different.
(2), even if Russia no longer adheres to the position of baltic denuclearization, it is difficult to change Finland's attitude, at present, for Finland, joining NATO means a balance of power, Russia does not dare to easily move NATO, and NATO does not dare to easily move Russia. This is Finland's position, to put it bluntly, Finland is not to blame for doing so, and holding its thigh does not mean that Finland is going to war with Russia.
(3), Russia because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has caused a lot of economic and energy pressure, if you launch military operations against Finland, resulting in finnish territorial disputes so that Finland does not meet the conditions for joining NATO, it will inevitably pay a huge price, which depends on Russia's choice, but this may still not be ruled out, after all, Finland joined NATO in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, will make Russia become very passive.
What about Russia's attitude toward Turkey?
Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson Zakharova warned Turkey not to exacerbate the situation in northern Syria, and military activities launched without the consent of the Syrian government violate Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
It seems that Russia will put pressure on Turkey in Syria, at least it is impossible to get used to Turkey, Turkey is a country that is based on its own interests, whether it is for the United States or Russia, it is impossible to be sincere, Russia has obviously seen through this.
Second bad news: At the NATO summit, NATO stated that it regarded Russia as the most direct threat
Estonian Prime Minister Kayakaras said at the NATO summit: "We, as allies, agree that Russia is the most important and direct threat to NATO. She also demanded that NATO must change the current force posture and strengthen the deployment of troops on the east wing.
There is nothing new about being seen by NATO as the most immediate threat, but many NATO countries at the NATO summit have said that Russia will no longer be a partner of NATO, which marks the beginning of the Cold War between NATO and Russia.
But this is markedly different from the era of confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union.
(1), now many members of NATO countries are EU countries, and energy trade between Germany and Russia can not be interrupted in a short period of time, the most important thing is that now Europe, the United States and Russia are competing, for the EU, the long-term confrontation with Russia has exacerbated the security risks of Europe, which is not good for the EU.
(2) Once Russia declares a ceasefire after taking control of Donbass, the relations between the parties will certainly become moderate, because even if the United States hopes that the war will continue, the EU will not be willing to drill a bottomless pit, a devastated Ukraine is a hot potato, consuming Russia is true, but consuming the EU is not false.
(3) Now the purpose of the United States is very clear, that is, to promote globalization to regionalization, and gradually see results, to put it bluntly, the United States wants the West to hold together against other countries, and the countries in the non-Western core circle are the cannon fodder used. Therefore, the confrontation between the United States and Russia is not only a choice of military confrontation, so this Cold War may be more profound. Unless the United States changes its attitude, the EU will also be led by the nose.
The third bad news: judging from this NATO summit and the G7 summit, the West has not become more "divided" because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Although the EU is very divided on the issue of sanctions against Russia, and even the United States and the EU have differences on the issue of supporting Ukraine, it has to be admitted that at present, the overall attitude of the West against Russia is basically the same.
After the EU offered to spend more money to support Ukraine, the Uk said it would support Ukraine with £1.3 billion to support Ukraine. Although the West's support, from as little as a billion to tens of billions, cannot strengthen Ukraine's military strength in a short period of time, it will not allow Ukraine to fall in a short period of time.
The reason why the cohesion of the West is strengthening, this is because the damage caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the West is still relatively limited, Russia because of the consideration of energy cooperation, basically passively face sanctions, and did not withdraw salaries to the EU in advance to impose energy sanctions, so consumption continues, no one can say who can not hold on in the end. If energy prices start to fall, it is indeed not good for Russia, if it remains high, it is also a consumption for Europe and the United States, in short, neither side can take advantage of anything now.