On the occasion of the NATO summit, Sweden and Finland negotiated a last-minute agreement with Turkey. In exchange for a promise from Turkey, Erdogan has agreed to withdraw his previous veto and let them join NATO.
At this point, The two countries have received another "ticket to the treaty", and NATO has also eliminated the biggest obstacle on their way to expansion.
But why did Turkey, which had a tough attitude before, relax at a critical moment; What impact will NATO's continuous eastward expansion have on the already severe Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and what kind of threat will Russia face?
First, looking at the change in Turkey's attitude, behind it is bound to take what is needed, and the interests of all parties have reached another equilibrium point.
Turkey's identity in Europe is relatively special, although it is a member of NATO, it has not yet joined the EU, and it is only a partner of the EU. Because of this, Turkey has long believed that many of its interests within NATO have not been taken seriously.
In particular, Turkey's dissatisfaction with the application for membership in Sweden and Finland continued to increase, because the two countries disagreed with Turkey on many things, mainly in two aspects.
One is the issue of the PKK. Since the organization was founded in 1979, Turkey has always regarded it as a big problem, and wants to get rid of it quickly.
However, they have severely cracked down on the PKK as a terrorist organization, and Finland and Sweden have adopted a supportive attitude towards the PKK's activities, which is the most intolerable thing for Turkey.
The second is the attitude towards Turkey's sworn enemy, Greece. Sweden and Finland have previously chosen to support Greece and impose arms embargoes on Turkey, which has undoubtedly violated its taboos for Turkey, which has always had the dream of being a great power.
For Turkey, the status of a non-EU NATO member makes it particularly angry about Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
Because in its view, if these two countries join NATO without changing their attitudes, then Turkey will only add to the adversaries and will not receive any benefits.
You know, the reason why Turkey's accession to the European Union has been so slow to progress is that Greece is the main obstacle.
But now Turkey has seen a change of attitude, with NATO Secretary-General Stottenberg personally coordinating the signing of a trilateral memorandum through negotiations.
Two reasons why Turkey is willing to change its position are crucial. On the face of it, of course, it is in agreement with Sweden and Finland on turkey's "national security issues".
Sweden and Finland have made commitments on related issues, particularly with regard to the inclusion of the PKK in the terrorist organizations to be combated and the lifting of the arms embargo.
As Erdogan's office issued a statement saying, they "got what they wanted."
In fact, US President Joe Biden's push behind the scenes is quite critical, otherwise Turkey, even if it reaches an agreement with Sweden and Finland, will not be as rapid as it is now.
As early as last December, Biden had a phone call with Finnish President Niinistö to discuss the possibility of joining NATO. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Biden invited the Finnish president to the White House to discuss the matter secretly, while also maintaining close contact with Swedish Prime Minister Anderson.
The most intriguing thing is that almost at the same time as Turkey reached an agreement with Sweden and Finland, US President Biden also ended his meeting with the king and prime minister of Spain, and got the specific content of the trilateral memorandum of Turifen from Niinistö and Anderson for the first time by phone.
Therefore, it is foreseeable that after removing the main "roadblocks", NATO's eastward expansion will be imperative, while the situation facing Russia will become more severe, and the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will become unknown.
Turkey has no opinion, and almost all member states agree that Sweden and Finland have joined NATO.
After recent intensive high-level meetings, interest exchanges and power games, Biden's deliberate nato "eastward expansion" has finally made substantial progress, but this is obviously not good news for Russia.
Now that the Russian military operation in Ukraine has entered the second phase, although they have won a series of victories in the eastern part of Ukraine, Russia is not in a position to force Zelenskiy back to the negotiating table with the continuous support of NATO countries to Ukraine.
The West's aggressive posture toward Russia has also made Russia completely understand that the confrontation between the West and Russia can never be good in a short period of time.
Russia is bound to take tougher action next, as evidenced by President Vladimir Putin's agreement to deploy nuclear-capable missiles to Belarus.
In general, Russia now has no way back and can only confront NATO face to face.
In the case of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia's strikes will certainly be more precise and powerful in order to consolidate the vested interests of Donetsk, Lugantsk and Crimea.
Russia has previously warned that any attack on Crimea will only lead to one consequence, and that is the outbreak of World War III.